General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCan Someone Tell Me In Layman's Terms What A Black Swan Event Is?
Thank you in advance.
ProfessorGAC
(65,057 posts)I think it would be having an event, a speech, an appearance of whatever in which one commits political suicide going out in a blaze of glory.
Just referencing it to the movie and the ballet.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts).
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)Something that has huge impact
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts).
flamingdem
(39,313 posts)OldTime
(7 posts)A Black Swan event is an event that has a very, very low probablity of actually happening but if the event happens the impact is very, very high.
Tace
(6,800 posts)cali
(114,904 posts)The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that is a surprise (to the observer), has a major impact, and after the fact is often inappropriately rationalized with the benefit of hindsight.
The theory was developed by Nassim Nicholas Taleb to explain:
The disproportionate role of high-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
Unlike the earlier philosophical "black swan problem," the "black swan theory" refers only to unexpected events of large magnitude and consequence and their dominant role in history. Such events, considered extreme outliers, collectively play vastly larger roles than regular occurrences.[1]
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_swan_theory
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts).
muriel_volestrangler
(101,320 posts)I had been assuming that it had something to do with black swans, as seen from the medieval European view - ie that it was about something that everyone you knew agreed didn't exist. And then something happened to make them understand that it was, after all, a possible thing or event. It shouldn't be about 'hard-to-predict' or 'rare' events.
Why the hell did he use the term 'black swan', then?
nc4bo
(17,651 posts)Have you heard the term recently and if so, where?
Just askin' - I'm a nosy one.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)It was referring to the debate and its subsequent impact.