I too saw that on Maddow. I don't think it will ultimately matter, but if he were white it wouldn't even be close. Barry O would be +10 across the board...

All the incumbent winners and losers were white men. All their challengers were white men.

Obama lost the debate on style, not substance. It wouldn't have mattered if he were white. He channeled Jimmy Carter when he needed to channel Reagan.

But, and this is really, really important. IT DOESN'T MATTER.

Past incumbents have won debates and lost elections.
Past incumbents have lost debates and won elections.

Debates matter, but they don't make or break a campaign. He blew it...but he learned from it and because he didn't totally blow it, he didn't give Romney the zinger opportunities he sought and he did gain a lot of ammunition he can bring to bear.

In the meantime, the bump was a bump, which the front-loaded Pew Poll didn't show. Reality in the form of improved jobs and deficit numbers blunted Romney's bump before he could begin to capitalize on it and try to turn it into a turning tide.

is incorrect. The fact they were good doesn't move the needle forward, it only keeps the needle from moving further backward. Bad numbers and Romney wins. All the good numbers did was give Obama the chance to make up for The Great Debate Disaster.

in the entire history of the United States.

That *has* to be a good omen, no?