General Discussion

ProSense

(116,464 posts) Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:30 PM Oct 2012

Breaking News: President Obama and Romney tied at 45 percent in Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll

Romney gains ground on Obama on economic issues: poll

By Andy Sullivan

<...>

Four weeks before the November 6 U.S. election, Romney has erased Obama's advantage on a range of pocketbook issues that are foremost on voters' minds, according to Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll figures.

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The online poll, taken over the course of the seven days leading up to Sunday, partially reflects the aftermath of Romney's strong debate performance against Obama in the first of their three face-to-face match-ups.

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Obama's advantage on personal issues remains intact. His 25 percentage point advantage on likability is essentially unchanged from the week earlier, as is his 14 percentage point advantage on which candidate "understands people like me."

The poll relied on a sample of 1,689 likely voters. The precision of Reuters/Ipsos polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, it has a credibility interval of 5.1 percentage points.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/09/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121009

So now we have breaking news for a poll that ended Sunday? A more than 5-point margin of error?

The Saturday poll showed Obama 49 to Romney 47, the margin of error was 2.7 percent.

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021485353

17 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

Highlight:

Breaking News: President Obama and Romney tied at 45 percent in Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll (Original Post) ProSense Oct 2012 OP

these polls are starting to get depressing quinnox Oct 2012 #1

This is confusing. ProSense Oct 2012 #2

So fucking what? Reuters poll had McCain up by 5 points in Aug '08 leveymg Oct 2012 #3

So you don't agree that it's "breaking news"? ProSense Oct 2012 #4

Enough fucking polls for a few days. It IS getting depressing. leveymg Oct 2012 #5

I'm not depressed, but you should probably ignore them. n/t ProSense Oct 2012 #6

I'm not the only one who's feeling a bit snowed under. It's not positively motivating. leveymg Oct 2012 #14

This is October, not August. GreenStormCloud Oct 2012 #13

Here is the real link that shows the 45-45 tie Blaukraut Oct 2012 #7

Thanks, that's ProSense Oct 2012 #10

Even though both reports are from today, they are conflicting! Blaukraut Oct 2012 #11

Will be interesting to watch the next couple days. n/t BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #8

Romney's won a few news cycles. That's rare for him. nyquil_man Oct 2012 #9

I stopped reading at "online poll"... Liberal_Stalwart71 Oct 2012 #12

Bullshit., a landslide makes them NO MONEY DiverDave Oct 2012 #15

10% undecides? I personally don't think so. oviedodem Oct 2012 #16

How can a Nobel Winner NeoFDR be tied with no name Romney? leftstreet Oct 2012 #17

quinnox

(20,600 posts)

1. these polls are starting to get depressing

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:33 PM

Oct 2012

Let's knockout Romney soon, this is making me nervous.

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

2. This is confusing.

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:39 PM

Oct 2012

From the OP article:

"The online poll, taken over the course of the seven days leading up to Sunday"

Did they do two polls?

Ipsos/Reuters Daily Election Tracking: Obama 47% - Romney 45%

Washington, D.C. - Today’s voting intention numbers are unchanged from yesterday: Obama on 47% and Romney on 45%. The debate seems to have narrowed the race, but Romney has a bit further to go to close the gap.

<...>

These are findings from an Ipsos poll conducted for Thomson Reuters from Oct. 3-7, 2012. For the survey, a sample of 1,745 American registered voters and 1,490 Likely Voters (all age 18 and over) was interviewed online. The precision of the Reuters/Ipsos online polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, the poll has a credibility interval of plus or minus 2.7 percentage points for Registered Voters and 2.9 for Likely Voters. For more information about credibility intervals, please see the appendix.

http://www.ipsos-na.com/news-polls/pressrelease.aspx?id=5812

leveymg

(36,418 posts)

3. So fucking what? Reuters poll had McCain up by 5 points in Aug '08

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:45 PM

Oct 2012

Poll shows McCain in 5-point lead over Obama | Reuters
www.reuters.com/.../uk-usa-poll-politics-idUKN1948672420080820
Aug 20, 2008 – Most national polls have given Obama a narrow lead over McCain throughout the summer. In the Reuters/Zogby poll, Obama had a 5-point ...

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

4. So you don't agree that it's "breaking news"?

Reply to leveymg (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:47 PM

Oct 2012

Any opinion on this curious duplicate: http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=1500858

leveymg

(36,418 posts)

5. Enough fucking polls for a few days. It IS getting depressing.

Reply to ProSense (Reply #4)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:50 PM

Oct 2012

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

6. I'm not depressed, but you should probably ignore them. n/t

Reply to leveymg (Reply #5)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:52 PM

Oct 2012

leveymg

(36,418 posts)

14. I'm not the only one who's feeling a bit snowed under. It's not positively motivating.

Reply to ProSense (Reply #6)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:32 PM

Oct 2012

GreenStormCloud

(12,072 posts)

13. This is October, not August.

Reply to leveymg (Reply #3)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:24 PM

Oct 2012

October is a lot closer to Nov 6 than August is.

Blaukraut

(5,693 posts)

7. Here is the real link that shows the 45-45 tie

Reply to ProSense (Original post)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 01:54 PM

Oct 2012

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/09/us-usa-campaign-poll-daily-idUSBRE89814820121009

(Reuters) - Republican Mitt Romney has erased U.S. President Barack Obama's advantage in the presidential race and the two candidates are now tied among likely voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos tracking poll released on Tuesday.

With the November 6 election four weeks away, Romney and Obama each command 45 percent, the daily tracking poll found.

snip

ProSense

(116,464 posts)

10. Thanks, that's

Reply to Blaukraut (Reply #7)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:05 PM

Oct 2012

weird, slightly similar links.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/09/us-usa-campaign-poll-idUSBRE8931E420121009
http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/10/09/us-usa-campaign-poll-daily-idUSBRE89814820121009

The interesting thing still is that Obama lost two points 45 (47), but Romney made no gain 45 (45) in the overall numbers.

Blaukraut

(5,693 posts)

11. Even though both reports are from today, they are conflicting!

Reply to ProSense (Reply #10)

Tue Oct 9, 2012, 02:19 PM

Oct 2012

The online survey of 1,157 likely voters was conducted between October 5 and October 9. The precision of the poll is measured using a credibility interval, which is plus or minus 3.3 percentage points.

from first link

The poll relied on a sample of 1,689 likely voters. The precision of Reuters/Ipsos polls is measured using a credibility interval. In this case, it has a credibility interval of 5.1 percentage points.

from second link

It's confusing. Bottom line is: Obama has no room for error from here on out. Tied in the polls will inevitably favor Romney because republicans are more reliable when it comes to actually going out and voting.