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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsOminous Sign For Romney In Today’s Gallup Numbers -- Obama Returning To Pre-Debate Levels
from tnr: http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108344/ominous-sign-romney-in-todays-gallup-numbers
While the twitter-verse was ablaze with the news that Romney seized the lead in Gallups tracker of likely voters, the underlying data hinted at troubling news for Romney. After making big gains among registered voters following the debates, Gallups most recent days of tracking have shown a shift back in the presidents direction, with Obama returning to pre-debate levels.
Similarly, Gallups 3-day approval tracker found the president reaching 53 percent, suggesting that the president fared pretty well in interviews on Saturday, as well.
Ultimately, this is just two nights of tracking, but its consistent with the movement in Rasmussens tracker, Obamas strong performance in Colorado and Iowa in Rasmussens Sunday polls, and PPPs tweets about the evolution of their samples. If confirmed by other pollsters, theres a chance that Romneys impressive bounce might prove short-lived.
Joe the Revelator
(14,915 posts)OldDem2012
(3,526 posts)bigtree
(85,996 posts)lol
Waiting For Everyman
(9,385 posts)Thanks!
Generic Other
(28,979 posts)OldDem2012
(3,526 posts)porphyrian
(18,530 posts)DisabledAmerican
(452 posts)You are just being selective in polls.
stevenleser
(32,886 posts)More from me on this soon.
BumRushDaShow
(129,052 posts)"likely voters" since Gallup (like they have done before) is now starting to release those figures.
I suppose my issue with the media narrative is expecting them to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges rather than suddenly comparing apples to oranges ("registered" to "likely" midstream, and then trying to attribute "change" to something. If one had a year's worth of "likely", then whatever was happening would be put in better perspective.
theKed
(1,235 posts)[img][/img]
He's a wizard, you know.
bigtree
(85,996 posts)shazzam!
aint_no_life_nowhere
(21,925 posts)meaning he's just one debate away from disaster. Given the short attention span of many Americans and their commercial conditioning to always want something new, the latest hamburger, the latest movie, the latest sports team, his performance in the first debate will be a distant memory come November.
City Lights
(25,171 posts)They were drooling over the polls showing Willard in the lead. I'd bet my last penny they won't be drooling over these.
HopeHoops
(47,675 posts)The pre-election polls showing Obama ahead don't mean anything if people don't get out and vote. He's not going to win from the political polls, just the actual poll.
anAustralianobserver
(633 posts)Last edited Wed Oct 10, 2012, 07:03 PM - Edit history (1)
(Note: this is not aimed at the OPer but at the punditocracy and follow-the-crowders, including sometimes MSNBC.)
While Gallup was probably measuring a real temporary bump here (they may be one of the honest ones); I reserve my right to be highly sceptical of Big Polling.
The time to be most sceptical of polls is when the big media wants to make a historical imprint. I believe a lot of the polls build credibility capital with real polling so they can spend it at critical points - which then feeds back and affects the real polls.
Or are we supposed to believe political polling (which has what oversight?) is not routinely used to shape opinion instead of just reflect it - and that somehow this powerful factor in discouragement/encouragement and influence has remained pure?