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bigtree

(85,996 posts)
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:42 PM Oct 2012

Ominous Sign For Romney In Today’s Gallup Numbers -- Obama Returning To Pre-Debate Levels

from tnr: http://www.tnr.com/blog/electionate/108344/ominous-sign-romney-in-todays-gallup-numbers


While the twitter-verse was ablaze with the news that Romney seized the lead in Gallup’s tracker of likely voters, the underlying data hinted at troubling news for Romney. After making big gains among registered voters following the debates, Gallup’s most recent days of tracking have shown a shift back in the president’s direction, with Obama returning to pre-debate levels.





Similarly, Gallup’s 3-day approval tracker found the president reaching 53 percent, suggesting that the president fared pretty well in interviews on Saturday, as well.

Ultimately, this is just two nights of tracking, but it’s consistent with the movement in Rasmussen’s tracker, Obama’s strong performance in Colorado and Iowa in Rasmussen’s Sunday polls, and PPP’s tweets about the evolution of their samples. If confirmed by other pollsters, there’s a chance that Romney’s impressive bounce might prove short-lived.

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Ominous Sign For Romney In Today’s Gallup Numbers -- Obama Returning To Pre-Debate Levels (Original Post) bigtree Oct 2012 OP
Shocking that a bump would correct itself, isn't it? Joe the Revelator Oct 2012 #1
Oh, no! That can't be true! I just set my hair on fire to be like Tweety!! nt. OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #2
unwring your hands and throw your wet pants over your head bigtree Oct 2012 #6
Ok, I really did lol at that. Waiting For Everyman Oct 2012 #11
Better to unwring the wet pants before throwing them on your head Generic Other Oct 2012 #13
Hahaha!!! Good one! nt. OldDem2012 Oct 2012 #15
. n/t porphyrian Oct 2012 #3
but but I was told Obama is losing DisabledAmerican Oct 2012 #4
I think it's more than that. I think there is a significant backlash developing from Romney's lies. stevenleser Oct 2012 #5
The media decided to focus on BumRushDaShow Oct 2012 #7
Obama's just workin' his magic theKed Oct 2012 #8
no question bigtree Oct 2012 #10
Romney has to triumph in every debate aint_no_life_nowhere Oct 2012 #9
I wonder how much play these new numbers will get from the corporate media. City Lights Oct 2012 #12
rMoney's toast anyway and he knows it. I'm just worried about complacency. HopeHoops Oct 2012 #14
Oh so now I'm supposed to trust the polls again? anAustralianobserver Oct 2012 #16
 

stevenleser

(32,886 posts)
5. I think it's more than that. I think there is a significant backlash developing from Romney's lies.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:46 PM
Oct 2012

More from me on this soon.

BumRushDaShow

(129,052 posts)
7. The media decided to focus on
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 03:53 PM
Oct 2012

"likely voters" since Gallup (like they have done before) is now starting to release those figures.

I suppose my issue with the media narrative is expecting them to compare apples to apples and oranges to oranges rather than suddenly comparing apples to oranges ("registered" to "likely&quot midstream, and then trying to attribute "change" to something. If one had a year's worth of "likely", then whatever was happening would be put in better perspective.

aint_no_life_nowhere

(21,925 posts)
9. Romney has to triumph in every debate
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:01 PM
Oct 2012

meaning he's just one debate away from disaster. Given the short attention span of many Americans and their commercial conditioning to always want something new, the latest hamburger, the latest movie, the latest sports team, his performance in the first debate will be a distant memory come November.

City Lights

(25,171 posts)
12. I wonder how much play these new numbers will get from the corporate media.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:05 PM
Oct 2012

They were drooling over the polls showing Willard in the lead. I'd bet my last penny they won't be drooling over these.

 

HopeHoops

(47,675 posts)
14. rMoney's toast anyway and he knows it. I'm just worried about complacency.
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 04:12 PM
Oct 2012

The pre-election polls showing Obama ahead don't mean anything if people don't get out and vote. He's not going to win from the political polls, just the actual poll.

16. Oh so now I'm supposed to trust the polls again?
Tue Oct 9, 2012, 07:28 PM
Oct 2012

Last edited Wed Oct 10, 2012, 07:03 PM - Edit history (1)

(Note: this is not aimed at the OPer but at the punditocracy and follow-the-crowders, including sometimes MSNBC.)


While Gallup was probably measuring a real temporary bump here (they may be one of the honest ones); I reserve my right to be highly sceptical of Big Polling.

The time to be most sceptical of polls is when the big media wants to make a historical imprint. I believe a lot of the polls build credibility capital with real polling so they can spend it at critical points - which then feeds back and affects the real polls.

Or are we supposed to believe political polling (which has what oversight?) is not routinely used to shape opinion instead of just reflect it - and that somehow this powerful factor in discouragement/encouragement and influence has remained pure?

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