are reopening too quickly. The newly discovered mutations are spreading and are easier to catch. The end result will be another surge.

There are powerful forces pulling this event in both directions, unlike last year where it was just up, up, and away.

That could be a troubling indicator for us here.

I am inclined to think yes, there will be another surge, but at least this time we have a decent president who is actually FIGHTING to get people vaccinated.

People will let their guard down, and there will be a surge. But it won't be anywhere on the level of what we've seen that started last October.

says we're in the eye of the hurricane - not sure we can attribute that quote to Dr. Fauci.

First, if estimates are correct, 20 to 25% of the US adult population has had the disease, whether symptomatic or asymptomatic. If also true that at least 15% of the population has gotten at least the first dose of a vaccine that puts as much as 40% of the country that is unlikely to spread it or get a serious case of the disease. Not herd immunity certainly, but its a good trend in the right direction and may be reflected in the downward drift of rates of new infections/hospitalizations.

Concerns include the fact that rate of vaccination is still slower than desirable (due largely to supply limitations) but very much improved thanks to Biden's focus. Other issues are the new variants and how long the vaccine or natural antibody protection lasts in the body. Starting with the latter issue, reports have shown some folks have lost detectable levels of antibodies after only 9 or 10 months after having had a full blown and diagnosed case. I have yet to see anyone say how long the vaccine generated antibodies remain with any scientific certainty. Maybe too soon to tell. As to variants, it is truly a wild card. A roll of the dice every day we leave even a few cases of this virus out there to continue to evolve. So far reports are that vaccines are as effective, or nearly so, with the new variants as the earlier versions which they were more precisely generated to fight. That could change over night and with countries like Brazil doing so poor a job of controlling the disease it's a very real risk. This is a huge national petri dish just challenging an organism to bring on even worse than it has already. This is a REAL concern and if I am going to head into conspiracy land, this has been the greatest risk that somehow has been largely publicly undiscussed despite the clear evidence from prior pandemics like the Spanish Flu.

The US is doing much better than we had, but dropping mask mandates and other safeguards now in many places, given the known variant threat, is indeed Neanderthal thinking. I hope a 4th wave is avoided, or even worse variant so radically new that it end runs the vaccines we have AND could be deadlier. I trust Fauci, Biden, et. al. to keep a much better eye and handle on this than the Trump admin, but they can't control Brazil or even TX, so serious risks remain.

All indications point to yes.
Many states re-opening without masks. Schools, restaurants, disneyland, professional sports. This shit aint ending anytime soon. Masks and some form of social distancing should be mandatory nationwide at least until majority of us have been vaccinated, as they help prevent air transmissible diseases. I'm certain flus are down because of this.

overall, you hear "we've been forced to wear masks - we've been locked down for nearly a year. See I told you none of it worked".

it's a long enough drive that she took two days. Coming here, she stopped en route somewhere in Oklahoma, outside of Tulsa, I think. She was appalled and disgusted that no one was masked. On the way back she took my advice and bypassed Oklahoma, making the overnight stop in Liberal KS, where everyone she dealt with was masked.

(She came here despite the pandemic because I'd had a heart attack and wanted to be with me and take care of me. Wonderful sister!)

I'm someone who in the past did a fair amount of travel. I'd go to four or five different science fiction things each year, drive to visit family and friends in Tucson or the Kansas City area, or go somewhere just as a tourist. Last year on March 1st, I boarded a Holland America ship in San Diego and went to Hawaii. 18 days altogether and it was a wonderful trip. All along we felt incredibly safe from the burgeoning virus. I happen to love cruising. Hawaii was my second only cruise, and I am looking forward to doing more down the road. But I do understand that a lot of things, cruise ships among them, are going to be profoundly changed. All I, or any of us, can do, is see how it all plays out.

All any of us can do is wear masks, stay reasonably and realistically isolated, and just wait this out.

I'll add this, and I've been saying this since perhaps June of last year. Pretend it's the spring of 1939 and you and I are planning a trip to Europe next year. It is going to be fantastic! We've been planning this for a couple of years now, working at extra jobs, saving every penny possible. We don't have all the details worked out, but we'll be going to London, Paris, Rome, perhaps the French Riviera, maybe Spain. We can hardly wait! Then September rolls around and WWII breaks out. Oh, crap. Looks like we won't be going to Europe next year, but we're optimistic that the war won't last very long and we can do it in 1941. But the war drags on. And on. It doesn't finally end in Europe until May, 1945. The soonest we might possibly take that long-postponed trip is 1946. More likely a year or two later. And when we finally get there, it will be a vastly different Europe from the one of 1939.

And so it's going to be with this pandemic. No, there won't be bombed out cities, but the changes are going to be more far-reaching than we think. I am not about to make any predictions about what they will be, but if you think about Europe in 1939 vs Europe in 1946, that might be helpful. For me, travel has been an important part of my life. In recent years, the rare times I've flown, I've booked a first class seat. It's been worthwhile to me. In the future, I'm not sure the first class travel will be what it was. In recent years I've been attending various science fiction things: Mile Hi Con in Denver, Bubonicon in Albuquerque, several others. I know and am friends with a bunch of s-f authors and love attending these. Some of these things have gone on line. For me, I can hardly wait for the real cons to return.

I have a young friend who is with the Austin Playhouse, and last night I watched an on-line performance of a play. In all honesty, the only reason I purchased the ticket because of my connection to that young friend, and about twenty minutes in I almost logged off. But I stayed, and I'm glad I did. I also get that normal performance of things like plays just aren't possible right now, and I absolutely need to support things like this playhouse as much as I can.

A book club I'm connected to has been doing Zoom meetings for about a year now. Since it's in a different city from the one I live in, if they ever go back to regular in person meetings, I'll be shut out.

It's not all just winning or losing. It's changes that spread across society and affect each of us individually.

Is an unmasked security guard or cop holding open a door with a sign on it saying "mask required" for unmasked customers. Some woman at an ATM threatened to spit on my MIL because she was wearing a mask. Mr. unmasked security guard at least made her back off.

I agree with you 100% on the effects this pandemic will have on our society long term. We have hardly dipped out toe into the repercussions.

removing sensible restrictions will retreat once their state caseload start to increase.

plus you have the abject lack of leadership by some repub govs. And just plain old fatigue. I'm hoping it's not a real severe surge, but I can't imagine not having another about now...

cases went down because winter weather has kept people at home after the holidays more than any government restrictions can

We may briefly hit the numbers that you describe due to removing mandates and letting down our guard. And I worry about the variants. But the vaccinations and a competent President will make a difference in it not getting out of control.

By lifting all restrictions before enough people are vaccinated to create something close to herd immunity.

Before Texas prematurely reopened everything I was pretty confident the Biden administration would have Covid under control by summer.

In either case, children will not be vaccinated soon and it feels impossible that a surge in childhood covid will not happen before the end of 2022.

With such a large percentage of 65+ vaccinated, it's unclear if we will see another hospital surge comparable to this past winter. It's really a matter of rates at this point.

I'll have to revisit this in a few months.

We're well above the 150K cases per day definition in my OP. So the DU poll predicted this correctly.