That is all. [url=http://www.cosgan.de/smilie.php][img][/img][/url]

We know that we can trace Crossroads GPS, Sproul's "Strategic Alliance" and Hart InterCivic back to either the RNC or the Romney campaign.

Then they discredit the exit polling and they win.

What we do, here, now, will stop this from happening.

They know they can't steal it unless it seems to be within reach.

That is all!

Gravis!!!!!

Thanks.

Thanks.

thought that debate bounce was pretty severe along with what else was going on.. good economic news, etc..just didn't feel right..

kind of reminded me in 08.. Obama had just had his acceptance speech when Mc picked Palin, and sucked out all the oxygen... i feel now just like i felt in 08, when Mc Cain, pronounced there was nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy, the day before the crash... we cruised from then on..

while I'm not going to get complacent.. i can take a deep breathe and get some popcorn for the next couple of weeks

And I have no doubts that Obama and all the volunteers are gonna do their best to make sure that asshole Mittens can't win in 2012.

Something about the "Rmoney bounce" didn't make sense to me at all.

Before the "debate" rmoney was dead in the water with a seemingly endless succession of gaffes, bad press and outright disasters, and it looked very possible that O would win in a landslide. The idea that rmoney made up all that deficit with one debate performance where he came out slinging lies like a drunk psychopath while O just played it safe with a reasonable approach is so laughably unlikely to me it makes my head go crazy.

Never believed it.

It makes sense if the press wants it to look close so folks will stay tuned.

They may do the same thing if the polls were reversed. Nobody will follow the news if the outcome is already known.

The Buckeye State will be rockin' to victory!

I am so grateful to hear news like this. Thank you so much, grantcart, for posting this stuff.

Obama/Biden 2012, say it with me!

And Willard has no credible, realistic path to 270 Electoral College votes without Ohio.

for Mitt to win Nevada: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251141125

Of course, if it is, we probably have this election in the bag already.

. . . bringing the real math!

before all this stuff went nuts... i remember Florida was a Must for Willard, if i remember right he had less than one % chance if he didn't take Florida.. I'm going to grab some popcorn and obsess on Florida.. oh yeah let's brainstorm the House in the last couple of weeks as the Senate looks good..

Good work, grantcart. This math is probably beyond R & R.

before the polls are actually closed?

Why would they do that?

watch it very carefully to guide GOTV efforts so that the total percent of people voting is known.

The percent is based on polling by PPP of people who have already voted.

report when voting day exit polls aren't?

structuring the poll based on previous sampling.

In that way exit polls are at a disadvantage because they are only conducted every 4 years and by that time the foundation for the assumptions have already changed.

To put it another way Gallup is polling every day for their national rolling poll. Now they make certain assumptions about who is going to vote and who is not. We may disagree and Nate Silver does with how they put together that modelling but the assumptions are the same day in and day out so even if the base numbers are slightly flawed the movement from one day to another should still be reliable if the assumptions are followed consistently.

How do you measure that in a poll that is taken once every 4 years, especially when the circumstances change so radically. For example there appears to be a lot more early voting this time in Ohio.

Having said that exit polls still are very valuable in that they will show significant trends on election day and give a clear signal if there is going to be a lopsided result, but will not be able to make a scientific outcome in a close race.

Are you saying that which voters have voted is in public records?
I am assuming voters party registration is also public record.

How about the actual vote counting to date of absentee voting?
Is that counting done daily and results published daily? Is it possible
that voters registered with a certain party could switch actual vote to another party?
However that cross party voting should be minimal in most elections unless there
is a vast landslide going on.

see other thread I started listing names of bad pollsters and what has happened this year.

The aggragate people add 4-8 different polls and average them, if 1/2 of the polls are way off, it skewers the results to the right, then the meme starts, and it directly influences other people and neewer polls.

it also attempts to depress the other side into giving up and thinking it will be stolen or no hope.

then they make it closer and that is their goal, as it directly will affect # of senators and house elected this year, even if/when Obama wins. It is the house I am really worried about.
We have a chance to take it back, but we need big big numbers to do so.

It seems that those who have already cast their votes have been overwhelmingly Democratic from what I have read on DU. Those voters who vote later or on Election Day may be mostly Republican, so, yes, it does seem that Romney might come out ahead with that segment of the electorate by 12% or more. It seems that if the ratio of Democrats to Republicans among those who already voted was the same as the ratio of Democrats to Republicans of those who have yet to vote in Ohio, then, yes, it would seem that yes, Romney wouldn't be able to come out ahead by 12% or more. However, given that those who voted early tended to be over-represented by Democrats, it doesn't seem to me that this logic applies anymore, as perhaps Republicans are over-represented among those left to vote.

Republicans so a very heavy early Democratic turnout is a very good sign.

Moreover multiple polls are showing a 51-46 split in Ohio with little movement for some time. So beyond the question of when they vote the polls are showing a consistent 5 point edge except that the Obama numbers have an EVEN LESS likely chance of declining because a higher percentage have already voted.

The higher the early vote goes, the more it undermines the big media push of the last two weeks because, fewer and fewer potential voters will be in the pool.

The numbers from Ohio are from multiple realiable pollsters and no matter how you cut it they are good for the President and while not closing the door on an electoral college victory for Romney, make it very very difficult.

...is that people who have already voted can't a) switch their vote (and, for Rmoney to win, he needs to "turn" Obama voters to his cause) or b) lose their enthusiasm between now and election day and decide not to bother voting after all.

efforts and that those efforts are likely to back fire because nothing motivates somebody to do something like telling them that they can't do it.

...while the remaining electorate is, as the poll admits, definitely pro-Romney, it is only so by 6%. That means, for the Republicans to prevail, they have to essentially double that lead. If they pick up each and every undecided vote out there, it still won't be enough -- they'll have to pick up every undecided, plus flip 1% of the remaining electorate from Obama to Romney. Putting that more in perspective, that's more than 2% of Obama supporters (plus, once again, 100% of the undecideds, not to mention motivating them to show up at the polls for a race they seem to have not engaged with enough to have a preference at this late date). Quite a task. Short of President Obama passing out drunk during one of the remaining debates, probably an impossible one.

the poll that shows the lowest numbers for them. If it was just once or twice it could be coincidence but in every single poll - it is statistically impossible.

All you need to do is just compare their results to the rest of the polls.

This one for the presidential race for Virginia is really off. Check out the one done on 9/8-9/9 compared to the others done at the same time period:

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/va/virginia_romney_vs_obama-1774.html#polls


They have Romney at +5 and the other poll has Obama +5 - that's a 10 point difference between the polls. A few days later, another poll has Obama +8.

These Ohio numbers also look a bit "off"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html#polls

no matter which man they show ahead, is that Romney NEVER breaks 50%, and he's usually in the mid-40's.

Where's that smilie when you need it?

The GOP knew that the vast majority of the black voters in Ohio voted early last time which is precisely why they tried to eliminate early voting in Ohio.

Signs are looking good and barring 2 more debate performances like the first... I still think Ohio will join the rest of the North East (they belong with that awesome grouping of cosmopolitan, urban, cool states) in voting Obama but the remaining voters will be largely Republican and this will end up being closer than it seems.

If the pooch and the wife want to come back , you can have them.

Apparently your little vacation has done you a world of good.

Nice work, my good friend.

Unless you want to let me keep the dog.

The republican problem is even bigger given the fact that not nearly 100% will vote. It´s the second poll i saw that shows 20% have already voted and with a huge lead for democrats.

I am german so i perhaps miss the point somewhere but with these numbers it is over for me. Romney needs much much huger numbers with the remaining voters to have a real chance.

adding all these crap gOP polls in has dragged down the averages all along.

I think you know my contacts here are very real - if you can have that together tomorrow, boy, that would help.

It's not just a good politics piece - it's a human curiosity piece (he's a weird one) and a how we attribute legitimacy piece - all very piquant topics.

On October 10th I put up a thread declaring that Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE.
Some cheered me on, some doubted me.

Romney never had a chance of winning this election & Obama is preparing to swing a couple of unexpected states.
2012 is gonna shock folks.
Obama's not just gonna win, he's gonna ANNIHILATE Romney at the voting booth.

The media is invested in a "horse race".
The only thing horse about this race is the horse's ass running against Obama.
NOTHING'S close about this race, don't let the media & their polls fool you.
See this article for details.
History says be skeptical of presidential polls

I'm calling for 20% lead in the Popular Vote. Minimum 15%.
Electoral Vote's a lock either way.

You'll just have to tune in on November 6th to see if I'm right or not.
John Lucas

Let it look close....there will be no excuse NOT to show up and vote!

No, you are referring to exit/ post voting polls.

You see where I am going with this.

They may "adjust" the numbers in Ohio.

TIA.

They aren't from any public records.