General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsWhy are internal campaign polls held as more accurate than public polls?
The question is honest, not rhetorical.
Many, many years ago I passed Statistics 101 by the barest of margins after some tutoring. I am no expert.
If internal polls are so much better, why don't more mainstream polling organizations, like Gallup, use the same techniques.
And what makes for a partisan pollster? Skewed polls that show a desire result don't cause that result. Yes, they can influence public thinking, so maybe that's the reason?
Anyway . . . . your thoughts and comments are solicited.
ananda
(28,862 posts)Mainstream polling is often skewed and partisan, ala the rightwing
Gallup and Rassmussen. These kinds of polls are designed to
influence the vote and provide media fodder to keep campaigns
close and boost ratings.
However, I feel certain that the candidates actually design their
campaigns around their internal polls. That's why R$R are still
worried and acting maniacal and that's why $R keeps .. ermm ..
adjusting his message, lol.
SheilaT
(23,156 posts)try a lot harder to poll a good and accurate sample of people who really will vote. The public polls, for various reasons, may not do the same, or at least not in the same nit-picky detail
In addition, while internal polling hopes to show results favorable to that candidate, they have a kind of vested interest in finding out exactly how the candidate is doing, with perhaps an eye towards making the campaign better. The other polls are more beholden to whoever has actually paid for a given poll.
I'm not terribly knowledgeable about polling, although like you I've taken Statistics 101.
Wounded Bear
(58,660 posts)to formulate strategy and tactics. Unless they are actively trying to "fool" themselves for some ideological reasons.
As for the media, I'm pretty sure the campaigns keep their numbers close to the vest. Oh, you'll hear statements like "Our internal polling suggests..." and such, but they would never reveal the actual numbers as it could impart an advantage to the opposition.
DemocratSinceBirth
(99,710 posts)Campaigns have a vested interest in getting it right and without spin.
Mass
(27,315 posts)release. They never release those who are worse than public polling.
This said, remember that the goal of internal polling is different than those of public polling. Why would a campaign want to have skewed results. In general, they do not publish them. They use them to steer the campaign in the right direction.
On the contrary, public polls often have a goal to either entertain or change people opinion, hence questions that can be questionable and comments from the media that are often dubious.
Jim__
(14,076 posts)My guess is that they tell the campaign what's working and what isn't and allow them to make appropriate adjustments.
Stinky The Clown
(67,799 posts). . . . given the difference between public and internal polls, why do we even bother to toot our horns about polls we know to be skewed or even unreliable?
I guess we do it to either make ourselves feel better or to fake out the other guys.
Puddy
(51 posts)Internal polls are much more honest in there sampling and results.