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MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 01:46 PM Oct 2012

Minnesota's Anti Same Sex Marriage Amendment Likely to Fail

The ballot amendment measure that would make marriage only between a man and a woman in Minnesota comes up for a vote in November. Polling indicates that the measure's proponents and opponents are very close in numbers. However, an aspect of how Constitutional Amendments are passed in Minnesota, along with this year's long ballot, may help keep this amendment from being ratified by the voters.

In Minnesota, amendments to the state Constitution must pass by a majority of all who cast ballots in the election. That technicality may mean victory for Minnesota's LGBT community. Since many voters in Minnesota vote for the candidates but skip ballot measures and simply leave them unmarked, any voter who fails to vote either Yes or No on this amendment will have his or her vote counted as a No vote, since only Yes votes are actually counted. Once the Yes votes are counted, the number of those votes is compared to the total number of ballots cast. Unless the Yes vote is over 50% of the total number of ballots, the measure fails.

As close as polling shows this election to be for that amendment, there's a very good chance that the non-votes may be excellent news for marriage equality. Lazy voters who don't bother to vote on the amendments may be the key to keeping this terrible amendment out of the constitution. There's also a good chance that voters will give control of both houses of the Minnesota legislature a majority in 2012. If that happens, and with our Democratic Governor already saying that he will sign a marriage equality bill, supporters of marriage equality have the best chance they've had in years of seeing Minnesota become a state with full marriage rights for all.

I have my fingers crossed that the marriage amendment will fail and that we elect legislative majorities in our state legislator. If that happens, my wife's cousin and his partner will be able to marry after 27 years of being together, along with all the other same-sex couples in the state. I think we may just get there in 2012, and am working to get people out to vote NO on this amendment.

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Minnesota's Anti Same Sex Marriage Amendment Likely to Fail (Original Post) MineralMan Oct 2012 OP
Recommended. William769 Oct 2012 #1
I do think there is something of a Bradley Effect with gay marriage votes bluestateguy Oct 2012 #2
That would be good. Thank you for everything you're doing to help defeat it. yardwork Oct 2012 #3
I wish I could do more. I've donated to the campaign, MineralMan Oct 2012 #4
I agree with you about the Supreme Court. yardwork Oct 2012 #11
I have my fingers crossed on the Congress, too. MineralMan Oct 2012 #13
Minnesotans United for All Families is fighting this amendment tarheelsunc Oct 2012 #5
We have a sign up in our front window. MineralMan Oct 2012 #7
I haven't paid much attention to other states since prop 8 in CA IVoteDFL Oct 2012 #6
In the Twin Cities, there's huge support for a NO vote. MineralMan Oct 2012 #8
Can the Cities plus (hopefully) Duluth, Mankato, and St. Cloud win this thing? IVoteDFL Oct 2012 #9
I certainly hope so. MineralMan Oct 2012 #10
I have that same feeling IVoteDFL Oct 2012 #23
There was no strong opposition from corporations or local celebrities in North Carolina. yardwork Oct 2012 #12
There's been some good corporate opposition. MineralMan Oct 2012 #14
The impact of a defeat would be huge. Every other vote has been with the bigots. yardwork Oct 2012 #18
Absolutely. If Minnesota can defeat this, MineralMan Oct 2012 #19
I am so sorry to hear that you didn't have any public opposition in NC IVoteDFL Oct 2012 #24
Glad to hear that - my whole family will be voting no. jwirr Oct 2012 #15
Excellent. Talk to your friends, too. Get people to the polls, if you can. MineralMan Oct 2012 #16
I volunteer with them, and I have *never* been involved with any volunteer organization that is as Brickbat Oct 2012 #17
They're great. Every time I've encountered them, from MineralMan Oct 2012 #20
K&R, and another thanks for your efforts in defeating it. closeupready Oct 2012 #21
There was an article in this morning's St. Paul MineralMan Oct 2012 #22

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)
2. I do think there is something of a Bradley Effect with gay marriage votes
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:17 PM
Oct 2012

I was expecting the NC amendment to pass with 54-55%, and it passed with 61%.

I think the margins in Maine and Washington are enough, however, that our side will win those states.

Also, since supporters of marriage equality are disproportionately younger, a good many of them may never make it to the polls on election day.

yardwork

(61,630 posts)
3. That would be good. Thank you for everything you're doing to help defeat it.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:21 PM
Oct 2012

The passage of the constitutional amendment against equal marriage and civil unions in North Carolina has had an insidiously poisonous effect on the state. I've lived here a long time and didn't expect it to be defeated, but I've been a little surprised at how negative the impact has been on me and others. I know many gay people who feel so discouraged, so brokenhearted that our fellow citizens would treat us this way. I know long-time couples who are planning to leave the state as soon as they can, even though most other states have similar amendments. North Carolina was perceived as being more enlightened than many other conservative parts of the country, but with that amendment the people of this state broke a lot of hearts. A trust has been broken and it won't be rebuilt for a very long time, if ever.

These constitutional amendments against equal rights are an evil thing.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
4. I wish I could do more. I've donated to the campaign,
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:26 PM
Oct 2012

and am talking to everyone as I work in my precinct about the importance of voting NO.

This is all moving too slowly, but it's moving. What's really needed is a Supreme Court decision making all of those amendments and laws unconstitutional. We must elect a President who will appoint people to fill vacancies who share that belief. I'm not confident in the current SCOTUS at all, although I think the California Prop. 8 case is rock solid.

I'm so sorry about North Carolina. It wasn't a surprise, but was a big disappointment.

yardwork

(61,630 posts)
11. I agree with you about the Supreme Court.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 06:36 PM
Oct 2012

I addition to needing a liberal president, we need a liberal Congress to approve those Supreme Court nominees.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
13. I have my fingers crossed on the Congress, too.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:09 PM
Oct 2012

My district always sends a progressive to Congress, so I've been trying to work on beating Bachmann. It didn't work in 2010. Maybe it'll work in 2012.

tarheelsunc

(2,117 posts)
5. Minnesotans United for All Families is fighting this amendment
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:30 PM
Oct 2012
http://action.mnunited.org/p/salsa/web/common/public/signup?signup_page_KEY=6337

They have a link to request a free bumper sticker. I requested one but have not received it, I guess they are only sending to Minnesotans. Still, they have a strong coalition going in Minnesota to get people to vote NO to this and I hope it is successful.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
7. We have a sign up in our front window.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:34 PM
Oct 2012

I don't have a yard sign, though. They're great people and are working very hard to beat this amendment. They've been at every event in the Twin Cities all Summer, getting pledges and collecting donations. All wonderful people who are able to speak about the issue to anyone who will listen.

IVoteDFL

(417 posts)
6. I haven't paid much attention to other states since prop 8 in CA
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:33 PM
Oct 2012

Has anywhere else that passed marriage amendments had the strong opposition that we have here? Big companies, local celebrities, and even some religious leaders have come out against it. Minnesota also has a high Lutheran population. They've become very progressive lately as far as gender and orientation. A lot of the churches in Minneapolis by the UofM campus have welcoming signs for all people.

Are we actually different... or am I living in a bubble?

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
8. In the Twin Cities, there's huge support for a NO vote.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 02:39 PM
Oct 2012

In the more rural areas, though, there's a lot of support for the amendment, unfortunately. The TV ads for the NO vote are excellent, and feature real people telling why they're voting No. The ads for the Yes side are much weaker, and are currently using former TV news reader. It's almost impossible to tell what effect they're having, though.

You're right about the ELCA churches. They're almost all very welcoming and full of good people who will vote against the amendment.

It's all coming down to the wire, and I'm hoping that the people who don't bother to vote on the amendment at all will help carry the day. They're low-information voters, and will just skip that part of the ballot. They may make the difference. That's happened in the past a number of times.

IVoteDFL

(417 posts)
9. Can the Cities plus (hopefully) Duluth, Mankato, and St. Cloud win this thing?
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:03 PM
Oct 2012

Large college cities should be an easy win too. I would think that on average a younger person would be less likely to skip ballot questions too. It's a daily topic amongst my peers, we aren't likely to forget about it.


The ads on TV right now are all pretty weak, I agree. However, I took a weekend to volunteer with MN United, and they warned of ads that would be upcoming, featuring things like kids telling their parents they wanted to be gay. I guess that these ads have been highly effective in other states. I'm curious if anyone has seen these ads in their home state and if they knew anyone who changed their mind because of it.







MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
10. I certainly hope so.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 03:44 PM
Oct 2012

You're right that college and university cities are generally good at supporting marriage equality. The current polls show the vote to be very, very close statewide. That's why I think the effect of people who don't vote at all on the amendment may work to stop it from passing. It's just a gut feeling, but I think I'm right.

A lot of people don't have any strong feelings one way or another about marriage equality. Their numbers are growing, too. If they decide just not to vote on the Amendment, their non-vote will count as a NO vote. They may not know that, since many Minnesotans don't really pay attention to the details of how the process works. In this case, the undecided will end up being on the NO side, and that's a good thing.

I also think the ads that are making the point about the Constitution not being a place to take rights away may influence some voters to vote No, even if they don't feel strongly about marriage equality.

I just have a feeling that Minnesota will turn this amendment down. But, all I can do is cross my fingers.

IVoteDFL

(417 posts)
23. I have that same feeling
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:39 PM
Oct 2012

It's a combination of things that have me really hopeful about it. The numbers are moving towards the "no" side and if just enough people skip the ballot questions to make up the difference we really could be the first state to turn down an amendment like this. We're known for being "Minnesota nice" and nice people just wouldn't pass an amendment like this.


I agree about that ad! I love the closing line "Love is bigger than government." That should surely grab the attention of some Republicans.

yardwork

(61,630 posts)
12. There was no strong opposition from corporations or local celebrities in North Carolina.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 06:42 PM
Oct 2012

Most religious leaders in North Carolina - including Billy Graham - supported the bigoted constitutional amendment. We did have a strong united coalition of opposition involving the state NAACP and many African American religious and civic leaders in urban areas - and the constitution was defeated in those urban areas. So that was very heartening. But none of the major companies based in North Carolina - including Bank of America, Duke Energy, Lowe's, GlaxoSmithKline, Blue Cross and Blue Shield of North Carolina, etc. bothered to strongly oppose. Some of them - notably BCBSNC - were opposed, but their efforts were very lightly publicized. They didn't want to offend customers.

So if you have that kind of strong, high-profile opposition in MN that is very different than what we saw in North Carolina. Good for Minnesota!

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
14. There's been some good corporate opposition.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:10 PM
Oct 2012

Minnesota's not North Carolina, that's for sure. Keep your hopes up, I think it could happen.

yardwork

(61,630 posts)
18. The impact of a defeat would be huge. Every other vote has been with the bigots.
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 10:44 AM
Oct 2012

NOM - which is a front for the Catholic Church and Mormons - gets a lot of mileage out of the fact that every time this has been put up for vote citizens have voted against equal rights. A defeat for the bigots in MN would turn that around. It would have a strong national impact. Go Minnesota!

IVoteDFL

(417 posts)
24. I am so sorry to hear that you didn't have any public opposition in NC
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:53 PM
Oct 2012

I think our biggest ally here has been General Mills. I almost cried. They are one of the biggest employers in the state. After them, one by one companies started coming out and pledging "No" votes. I am putting a lot of stock in the corporate support for marriage equality, but I thought it was just such a big f'ing deal.


although I am sad for the residents of NC, I am glad to hear that Minnesota is different. I'm very hopeful, but cautious at the same time.

Brickbat

(19,339 posts)
17. I volunteer with them, and I have *never* been involved with any volunteer organization that is as
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:03 PM
Oct 2012

well-organized, motivated, informed and clear on its message as this one. It's truly a pleasure and a privilege to be involved with this campaign.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
20. They're great. Every time I've encountered them, from
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 11:39 AM
Oct 2012

Grand Old Day and the State Fair to other events, the energy and approach has seemed spot on to me. A great group!

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
22. There was an article in this morning's St. Paul
Mon Oct 15, 2012, 12:22 PM
Oct 2012

Pioneer Press about the amendment and attitudes toward it up in the north country around Duluth. The upshot of the article was that nobody's really talking about it much up there. That says to me that many will just skip voting on the amendment, and their votes will be counted as NO votes. Of course, we won't know until the day after the election.

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