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dsc

(52,162 posts)
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:33 PM Oct 2012

It was absurd to think Obama would win in a landslide (but he is winning)

and his small lead seems to have stablized.

First on the notion he could win in a landslide. In 2008, when he was running against the party that had caused the 2nd great depression and a ticket that had a 72 year old cancer survivor a President and the world's dumbest human as Vice President, he won by 6 points (53 to 47). Oh and don't forget the 2 wars one the longest in our history and the other one of the most unpopular. And he won 53 to 47. Now 53 to 47 isn't horrible, it is a very good win but it isn't Reagan's win in 80. It wasn't even Bush's win in 88. It was a good solid win. Our advantage in the EC made it look very impressive. He won every close state (or CD in the case of Nebraska) except for Missouri giving him a massive advantage. This election was going to be tougher no matter what. He spent massive political capital on stimulus and health care reform and the economy, while better, is mediocre. So a landslide was delusional.

Second, the polls are stableizing with a small Obama lead nationwide but with a pretty good EC position. (actually a quite good EC position). Even at the height of the Romney surge, the following states were firmly in the Obama camp. ME, VT, MA, RI, CT, NY, PA, MD, MI, MN, WA, CA, OR, HI, DE, IL, DC, NM and NJ with a total of 237 electoral votes while Romney had AZ, UT, AK, ID, MT, ND, SD, NE, KS, OK, TX, WY, MO, AR, LA, MS, AL, TN, IN, KY, WV, GA, SC with a total of 191. Leaving NV, CO, WI, OH, FL, NH, VA, NC AND IA with a total of 110 votes. Obama needs 34 of those votes FL has 29, OH has 18, NC has 15, VA has 13, WI has 10, CO has 9, NV and IA 6 each, and NH has 4. If Obama wins Florida and any state in that list but NH, game over. If he wins Ohio, Wisconsin and any state but NH he has won. If he win OH, CO, and any state but NH he has won. If he wins WI, CO, NV, and VA he has won. In short he has many, many paths to victory even with the height of Romney's surge.

In short, Obama is in a great position given the situation. Assuming that Obama manages to have a decent debate and that we don't have a horrible domestic or foreign crisis Obama is favored to win. No it won't be a landslide but it should be a decent win. And remember a win is a win is a win.

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JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
1. Perhaps, but he SHOULD win in a landslide.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:44 PM
Oct 2012

Let's recap ...

Stopped the Great Depression for becoming the Great Depression.
Ended Iraq war.
Killed OBL.
DOW up over 6000 points.
UE down from a high of 10.2% during recession to 7.8% (and falling) now.
Ends DADT.
Saves US auto industry.

Any one of these and the GOP is carving their President's face on Mt Rushmore.

Obama does all of this, and its not enough.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
6. My view is, and has been, that Obama breaks 300 EC votes.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:54 PM
Oct 2012

Could and should be higher ... but I just don't see him under 300.

And, I can easily see scenarios in which Romney barely breaks 200.

Check the EC averages from before the conventions, to now. Romney as far as I can tell has been above 200 EC votes. I think 191 has been his high.

Over that same period, Obama has been above 200, and has high as about 265. I think Obama's lowest has been 201.

I'm using Real Clear numbers ... btw.

MineralMan

(146,317 posts)
7. Yes, I agree.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:56 PM
Oct 2012

I think a lot of people are going to be surprised. There's way too much pessimism connected with this election among Democrats. I don't share it. As I look at the polls in the swing states, I feel confident that Obama will do just fine, and I think the Republicans know it.

dsc

(52,162 posts)
10. 300 is only a couple of extra states
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:59 PM
Oct 2012

It looks good (300 to 239) but it only meant he won FL, OH, WI, and one other state that isn't NH from the undecided.

dsc

(52,162 posts)
4. Carter ran against a man who had never gotten a vote outside of his MI CD
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:54 PM
Oct 2012

and who pardoned Nixon and couldn't break 52%. In the 16 elections from 48 to 08 exactly once (Johnson 64) did we win a landslide. He ran as the heir to a martyred President and against a nut. Obama is running with a mediocre economy and the fact is he could still wind up doing close to as well as he did in 08. In the EC he could wind up winning all he won before except for NC, MO, and IN and that would frankly be a miracle.

JoePhilly

(27,787 posts)
8. Obama is not Carter ... Romney sure is not Reagan.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 08:58 PM
Oct 2012

And as for landslide wins ... its good to note that Obama's win in 2008 is the strongest since Reagan.

dsc

(52,162 posts)
12. A couple of things
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:22 PM
Oct 2012

First Bush in 88 did have a stronger win that Obama in 08. He got 52.9% vs Bush's 53.4% and 426 EV vs 365 EV. Second, while Carter has the reputation now as being a horrible politician (thanks to his loss in 80) what he did in 76 is nothing short of amazing. He was the first southerner elected to the Presidency who wasn't an incumbent since the civil war (unless you count Wilson who was born in VA but was governor of NJ). He did this having served in the state senate for two terms and one term as governor. In short, Carter was an ambitious man surrounded by a crack political team. He beat Hubert Humphrey, Mo Udall, and Jerry Brown to get the nomination.

 

AverageJoe90

(10,745 posts)
11. That is true, especially thanks to voter suppression and election fraud possibilities.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:18 PM
Oct 2012

But even with that, I don't see Rmoney winning legally. As you correctly pointed out we could indeed even lose Ohio to election shenanigans and still have paths to victory. Even with just VA & IA, or VA & NV, we'd still win.

And, IMO, we're not likely to lose NV, IA, or WI at all. Too many things are working in our favor in these states. Hell, we can even say the same for VA!

Qutzupalotl

(14,313 posts)
13. I want the house back too.
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:33 PM
Oct 2012

That possibility was within reach a few weeks ago and may be again, but we have to fight for it, starting with the debates.

dsc

(52,162 posts)
14. there we are in pretty deep trouble
Sun Oct 14, 2012, 09:42 PM
Oct 2012

It is remotely possible but quite unlikely. We have to win all of the races that are Safe dem, Likely dem, Lean dem and the tossups plus 9 out of 20 of the leaning GOP seats. A very hard table to run.

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