General Discussion

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts) Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:16 PM Oct 2012

"The Passing Storm" - election analysis by supergenius Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium

Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium always has great and thoughtful analysis. Today's post is as insightful as his election analysis always is, and he sounds a hopeful note this morning:

In national polls, the race has swung back three points since the Presidential debate to a narrow Obama lead. This return has been steady over time ... back to where polls were in August. The decline in the state poll meta-analysis has been blocked by Ohio. Today, President Obama’s November re-elect probability is 84%

http://election.princeton.edu/ (don't miss the explanatory graphs and a good talking-Andrew-Sullivan-off-a-ledge discussion after the "Read more ?" jump).

If you are a Sam Wang fan (like me), please give this a K&R.

14 replies

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Highlight:

"The Passing Storm" - election analysis by supergenius Sam Wang at the Princeton Election Consortium (Original Post) Texas Lawyer Oct 2012 OP

Randy Andy Sullivan is on the ledge again today. DonViejo Oct 2012 #1

That boy needs to switch to decaf Texas Lawyer Oct 2012 #3

Andy is a Tory at heart. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #4

He's also a devout Thatcher apologist Denzil_DC Oct 2012 #8

Thatcher was so far to the left of the Tea Party and Mitt-from-the-primary-and-surveillance-cameras Texas Lawyer Oct 2012 #11

Forbid Romney wins, Sully will be on his bandwagon. Dawson Leery Oct 2012 #13

He once wrote a beautiful piece on AIDS for the New Republic TomClash Oct 2012 #9

If he won't jump, he needs a little push. Ikonoklast Oct 2012 #10

sullivan is such a fair-weather fan renegade000 Oct 2012 #12

Kick Zoeisright Oct 2012 #2

K&R Waiting For Everyman Oct 2012 #5

I like you, Texas Lawyer. Thanks for this terrific OP and link. David Zephyr Oct 2012 #6

thanks! Texas Lawyer Oct 2012 #7

romney will lose big arely staircase Oct 2012 #14

DonViejo

(60,536 posts)

1. Randy Andy Sullivan is on the ledge again today.

Reply to Texas Lawyer (Original post)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 01:34 PM

Oct 2012

While reading today's edition of The Daily Beast I clicked on a link to his page, for whatever reason the page was loading S L O W L Y. I said to myself, "self, you really really don't need this drama queen's hysteria" and shut down the page. Screw Sullivan.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)

3. That boy needs to switch to decaf

Reply to DonViejo (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:27 PM

Oct 2012

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)

4. Andy is a Tory at heart.

Reply to DonViejo (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 03:31 PM

Oct 2012

His hatred of the liberals/liberalism as well as the Clinton's should be more than enough to discount his opinions.
I have never understood why any liberal would give him consideration.

Denzil_DC

(7,242 posts)

8. He's also a devout Thatcher apologist

Reply to Dawson Leery (Reply #4)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 04:04 PM

Oct 2012

The guy's not worth the paper he's written on.

Texas Lawyer

(350 posts)

11. Thatcher was so far to the left of the Tea Party and Mitt-from-the-primary-and-surveillance-cameras

Reply to Denzil_DC (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 06:50 PM

Oct 2012

that it is scary to contemplate.

Dawson Leery

(19,348 posts)

13. Forbid Romney wins, Sully will be on his bandwagon.

Reply to Denzil_DC (Reply #8)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 07:50 PM

Oct 2012

TomClash

(11,344 posts)

9. He once wrote a beautiful piece on AIDS for the New Republic

Reply to DonViejo (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 04:08 PM

Oct 2012

It has been downhill ever since.

Ikonoklast

(23,973 posts)

10. If he won't jump, he needs a little push.

Reply to DonViejo (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 04:14 PM

Oct 2012

Eff that guy.

"I'm IMPORTANT!!!!"

Not really, pal.

renegade000

(2,301 posts)

12. sullivan is such a fair-weather fan

Reply to DonViejo (Reply #1)

Mon Oct 15, 2012, 06:59 PM

Oct 2012

There was no end to the effusive praise when times were good, but as soon as there was a setback, lord... the doom and gloom was utter, and there is such an oddly personal tone to it...