Straw

When Obama regains a small but steady lead (which I expect him to) there will be a chorus of claims that somebody or some position is thereby refuted.

It will, in proper straw man fashion, be a refuted position that almost nobody has ever taken.

I do not recall anyone in media (aside from surrogates), or anyone here, say that Romney was sure to win as a result of the debate. And I have certainly never heard anyone (aside from the lowest of RW blog types) say that Obama doesn't have a chance.

I even expect that some folks will be refuted because exactly what they said would happen would happen, which is some pretty fancy refutation.

So, before tomorrow's debate, let me take this opportunity to say what the reaction of informed opinion was to the previous debate. What it actually was.

The concern was that the last presidential debate would revitalize the Romney candidacy and cause a dramatic tightening in the polls, derailing what had been a momentum trend that could have resulted in a real message election, including even talking about retaking the House as a slim possibility.

Which is what happened. In gambling parlance, a sure thing was turned into a smart-money bet.

And the informed view of things was that Obama had an opportunity to get back on track, and probably would. But that things would be somewhat closer than they would have been otherwise.

After the next debate I expect Obama to have an average national lead of 2%-3%. Maybe even 2%-4%.