8 deep(ish) thoughts on the Washington Post-ABC poll
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/the-fix/wp/2012/10/15/8-deepish-thoughts-on-the-washington-post-abc-poll/
* No one is undecided: President Obama took 49 percent to Romneys 46 percent in the polls head-to-head matchup among likely voters. One percent of people said they would vote for a different candidate (Gary Johnson boomlet!), one percent said they would vote for neither candidate and two percent said they had no opinion. Among people who said they were supporting either Obama or Romney just two percent said there was a good chance they would change their minds. Add it all up and you have six percent of the electorate who isnt already for one of the candidates solidly. Thats minuscule.
* * *
* Obamas economic edge
: A majority of people 52 percent of likely voters still disapprove of President Obamas handling of the economy. But, the incumbent has made up ground on Romney on the question of which candidate is better equipped to turn things around economically. Forty eight percent of registered voters said they trusted Obama more on the economy while 44 percent chose Romney. (Among likely voters the margin was narrower with 48 percent naming Obama and 47 percent opting for Romney.) As recently as late August, Obama trailed Romney by seven points on that same question in Post-ABC polling.
* * *
* The likability Grand Canyon: In a poll in which the two candidates are separated by a handful of points on virtually every question, the massive canyon on likability stands out. Sixty percent of registered voters said that Obama was the more friendly and likable person while 30 percent chose Romney. (Among likely voters, it was 58 percent for Obama, 32 percent for Romney.) Whats remarkable is that even with Romney clearly winning that first debate, the likability question has barely budged. At the end of September, Obama had a 32-point edge on the question in Post-ABC polling. Whats less clear: Will likability make up undecideds minds?
* Party ID update: In the latest Post-ABC poll the likely voter sample looked like this: 35 Democrat, 26 percent Republican and 33 percent independent. In the last Post-ABC poll among likely voters, the sample was more Republican and less Democratic; Democrats comprised 33 percent, Republicans 30 percent and independents 33 percent. How do those numbers stack up against recent president exit polls? In 2008, the electorate was 39 percent Democrat, 32 percent Republican and 29 percent independent. In 2004, it was 37 percent Democrat, 37 percent Republican and 28 percent independent. Want more on party ID? Read our piece on how its become (wrongly) partisan and Post pollster Jon Cohens piece on the 5 myths about political polling.