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pscot

(21,024 posts) Wed Oct 17, 2012, 09:12 PM Oct 2012

PPP is reporting Obama leads 76-24 among Ohio early voters

PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.

The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they've already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven't voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-51-46-in-ohio.html

4 replies

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PPP is reporting Obama leads 76-24 among Ohio early voters (Original Post) pscot Oct 2012 OP

lots of good news in that article - Obama remains strong in Ohio AFTER debate #1. Liberal_in_LA Oct 2012 #1

That was released 4 days ago, and if correct rMoney is screwed krawhitham Oct 2012 #2

PPP poll is under counting MINORITIES and YOUNG voters Tutonic Oct 2012 #3

Each election is historically different. longship Oct 2012 #4

Liberal_in_LA

(44,397 posts)

1. lots of good news in that article - Obama remains strong in Ohio AFTER debate #1.

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 09:14 PM

Oct 2012

krawhitham

(4,644 posts)

2. That was released 4 days ago, and if correct rMoney is screwed

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 09:16 PM

Oct 2012

52 point lead in early voting
19% have already voted

rMoney would have to carry the remaining 81% by 12 points to win Ohio

Tutonic

(2,522 posts)

3. PPP poll is under counting MINORITIES and YOUNG voters

Reply to pscot (Original post)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 09:27 PM

Oct 2012

Also remember Obama registered a new round of voters. Finally, I'm venturing to guess that PPP like the other pollsters are relying heavily on older voters. This fact alone will likely contribute to the downfall of the Republican party. Grandma and Grandpa have voted in the last four elections but can't continue to do so--they're dying off. I'd bet Rmoney $10,000 that the actual spread is not 51-45 and that Ohio just like Iowa is lost.

longship

(40,416 posts)

4. Each election is historically different.

Reply to Tutonic (Reply #3)

Wed Oct 17, 2012, 09:57 PM

Oct 2012

Polling is as much art as science. Elections are somewhat unpredictable. All polls make assumptions based on previous data. It may be predictive and may not be.

When there are large cultural changes models based on the past make for problems.

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