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LynneSin

(95,337 posts)
Thu Oct 18, 2012, 12:59 PM Oct 2012

Electoral Votes - where we stand today. Without the 8 states 237(o) to 170(r)

There are 11 states that are borderline and will decide who is the next president.

At this time Obama is pretty much going to win 237 electoral votes: HI,WA,OR,CA,NM,MI,MN,IL,MD,DE,DC,PA,NJ,NY,CT,RI,VT,ME (I think I have them all)

Romney will win these states: AK,UT,ID,MT,WY,ND,SD,NE*,OK,TX,KY,TN,MS,LA,AL,SC,GA,IN,WV for 170 electoral votes.

States that are up in the air:
Nevada 6
Colorado 9
Arizona 11
Ohio 18
Wisconsin 10
North Carolina 15
Virginia 13
New Hampshire 4
Iowa 6
Missouri 10
Florida 29

What this comes down to is Obama finding 33 EV whereas Romney needs to find 100.

The good news is that I think Ohio and Wisconsin will go to Obama which is 28 of the 33 he is going to need. I think there is a good chance he could pick up 1EV from Nebraska (NE splits EV and Obama won 1 in 2008). So at this point Obama needs to pick up one more state and I think it'll either be Nevada or Colorado that will give Obama the win.

16 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Electoral Votes - where we stand today. Without the 8 states 237(o) to 170(r) (Original Post) LynneSin Oct 2012 OP
You mean Nevada? IDoMath Oct 2012 #1
D'uh LynneSin Oct 2012 #3
A very nice job, LynneSin - just one question, though... joycejnr Oct 2012 #2
Arizona belongs to Romney if you're giving Michigan/Pennsylvania/Wisconsin to Obama. n/t Dawgs Oct 2012 #4
He can take Arizona and btw Pennsylvania & Michigan is solid Obamaland LynneSin Oct 2012 #5
PA/MI is solid for Obama was my point. n/t Dawgs Oct 2012 #7
I know it's fun to look ahead... DixieDave Oct 2012 #6
I think this time it is important to be aware of the polls leading up to the election LynneSin Oct 2012 #8
Overconfidence FloridaWatcher Oct 2012 #9
I too, share your Concern. n/t reflection Oct 2012 #12
Yeah, because if Romney cant win Ohio, he's pretty well fucked, isn't he? Warren DeMontague Oct 2012 #15
Very true. Romney has a long, long way to come close to leading in Ohio. Indpndnt Oct 2012 #16
237 + OH + WI + IA = VICTORY! Viking12 Oct 2012 #10
Yes! RedSpartan Oct 2012 #14
NV, CO, OH. Keeping my fingers crossed. n/t reflection Oct 2012 #11
Nevada or Iowa RedSpartan Oct 2012 #13

LynneSin

(95,337 posts)
5. He can take Arizona and btw Pennsylvania & Michigan is solid Obamaland
Thu Oct 18, 2012, 01:57 PM
Oct 2012

Wisconsin will probably go Obama.

But we're 3pts ahead with the US Senate seat and I would love to keep AZ with a blue senator!

LynneSin

(95,337 posts)
8. I think this time it is important to be aware of the polls leading up to the election
Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:27 PM
Oct 2012

Obama has been doing pretty solid in Ohio - anywhere from 5-8% lead. So if Obama continues this lead thru election day but Romney suddenly wins it then there is a chance that monkey business was going on by the GOP lead government.

I think the states I'd be most worried about are Ohio, Wisconsin, Florida and even Pennsylvania (even though they are allowing people to vote who do not have state photo ID like a drivers license).

I suspect if a constantly blue state suddenly turns red on election day, Obama will be someone who will fight to get answers needed to explain what happened and make sure that all the votes count.

BTW welcome to DU

Indpndnt

(2,391 posts)
16. Very true. Romney has a long, long way to come close to leading in Ohio.
Fri Oct 19, 2012, 05:23 PM
Oct 2012

Good point. He's screwed, really.

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