General Discussion

cthulu2016

(10,960 posts) Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:42 PM Oct 2012

Prediction: Gallup will soon start publishing two Likely Voter numbers

Gallup, as the vanilla pollster, doesn't like being an outlier.

So I suspect they will soon start publishing an alternate likely voter number with a different turnout model or different screening assumptions. The usual Gallup Likely Voter number will still be the headline number, but there will be a paragraph saying, "But if..."

Ass covering.

No inside info. Just a guess based on the way they hate to be wrong.

6 replies

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Prediction: Gallup will soon start publishing two Likely Voter numbers (Original Post) cthulu2016 Oct 2012 OP

All polls with numbers I don't like are baloney & use flawed methodology. Bucky Oct 2012 #1

There is actual data to support this conclusion with Gallup. Arkana Oct 2012 #5

+1 krawhitham Oct 2012 #6

Well they look like they are carrying Romney's water so they have no choice but to re-evaluate. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #2

So they're pretty much the outlier as it stands now? Cali_Democrat Oct 2012 #3

Gallup is used as a political prop... CoffeeCat Oct 2012 #4

Bucky

(54,013 posts)

1. All polls with numbers I don't like are baloney & use flawed methodology.

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:43 PM

Oct 2012

All of them.

Arkana

(24,347 posts)

5. There is actual data to support this conclusion with Gallup.

Reply to Bucky (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:46 PM

Oct 2012

In addition to them being the ONLY tracker to show this much movement towards Romney, they have a history of overestimating Republican turnout, oversampling Republicans in their LV screens, and we saw how hilariously large some of the swings were in Gallup's dailies in 2000 and 2004.

It's not totally out of the question.

krawhitham

(4,644 posts)

6. +1

Reply to Bucky (Reply #1)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:52 PM

Oct 2012

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

2. Well they look like they are carrying Romney's water so they have no choice but to re-evaluate.

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:44 PM

Oct 2012

Cali_Democrat

(30,439 posts)

3. So they're pretty much the outlier as it stands now?

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:45 PM

Oct 2012

CoffeeCat

(24,411 posts)

4. Gallup is used as a political prop...

Reply to cthulu2016 (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 02:45 PM

Oct 2012

I don't trust Gallup, any more than I trust Rasmussen.

There are plenty of pollsters who do a terrific job and they are usually pretty accurate.

Gallup and Rasmussen are a joke. They are staged props, so they get it right much of the time. However, their sole reason for existence is to be 'on stage' during critical political moments. Then, the numbers are used to alter--not reflect--opinion.

Wasn't Gallup way off in a few of the latest Presidential elections? And Rasmussen...they are right leaning and have always have been.

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