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A-Schwarzenegger

(15,596 posts) Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:32 PM Oct 2012

How's this RAND Corp. poll measure up? Obama, 50-44.

https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecast

7 replies

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How's this RAND Corp. poll measure up? Obama, 50-44. (Original Post) A-Schwarzenegger Oct 2012 OP

No one knows oswaldactedalone Oct 2012 #1

I like it. Longitudinal studies are harder to conduct, but are more meaningful. reformist2 Oct 2012 #2

Silver's take from a month ago gcomeau Oct 2012 #3

Thanks for that. A-Schwarzenegger Oct 2012 #4

Like this one Liberalynn Oct 2012 #5

The trend they show seems very believable. Barack_America Oct 2012 #6

I am biased. But this poll looks right to me. It has the right inflection points. bluestate10 Oct 2012 #7

oswaldactedalone

(3,491 posts)

1. No one knows

Reply to A-Schwarzenegger (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:38 PM

Oct 2012

It's either the greatest polling methodology ever or a failed experiment. Very different way of measuring the electorate, might be a little sketchy though. We'll know more on November 7th.

reformist2

(9,841 posts)

2. I like it. Longitudinal studies are harder to conduct, but are more meaningful.

Reply to A-Schwarzenegger (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:40 PM

Oct 2012

gcomeau

(5,764 posts)

3. Silver's take from a month ago

Reply to A-Schwarzenegger (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 03:46 PM

Oct 2012

https://twitter.com/fivethirtyeight/status/244609517994786816

We're adding the RAND national tracking poll to our database. Methodology is unorthodox, but (IMO) in a smart way.

A-Schwarzenegger

(15,596 posts)

4. Thanks for that.

Reply to gcomeau (Reply #3)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:49 PM

Oct 2012

Liberalynn

(7,549 posts)

5. Like this one

Reply to A-Schwarzenegger (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:49 PM

Oct 2012

Who knows newer and less orthodox might just spell better.

Barack_America

(28,876 posts)

6. The trend they show seems very believable.

Reply to A-Schwarzenegger (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:52 PM

Oct 2012

bluestate10

(10,942 posts)

7. I am biased. But this poll looks right to me. It has the right inflection points.

Reply to A-Schwarzenegger (Original post)

Thu Oct 18, 2012, 10:56 PM

Oct 2012

Romney was closing the gap after the first debate. Biden turned the tables when he demolished Ryan, the gap began to widen again. After the last debate that Obama won, the gap is getting bigger.

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