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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate Silver: Gallup vs. The World
...The Gallup national tracking poll now shows a very strong lead for Mitt Romney. As of Wednesday, he was ahead by six points among likely voters. Mr. Romneys advantage grew further, to seven points, when Gallup updated its numbers on Thursday afternoon.
The Gallup poll is accounted for in the forecast model, along with all other state and national surveys.
However, its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.
Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage of about two points for President Obama in tipping-point states like Ohio. The forecast has Mr. Obama as a narrow favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls...
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
The Gallup poll is accounted for in the forecast model, along with all other state and national surveys.
However, its results are deeply inconsistent with the results that other polling firms are showing in the presidential race, and the Gallup poll has a history of performing very poorly when that is the case.
Other national polls show a race that is roughly tied on average, while state polls continue to indicate a narrow advantage of about two points for President Obama in tipping-point states like Ohio. The forecast has Mr. Obama as a narrow favorite in the election largely on the basis of the state polls...
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
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Nate Silver: Gallup vs. The World (Original Post)
cthulu2016
Oct 2012
OP
Great analysis, and interesting inside look into how he crunches the numbers!
reformist2
Oct 2012
#3
gcomeau
(5,764 posts)1. Just finished reading that before coming over here...
...good big picture view of why we should probably conclude Gallup is completely out to lunch right now.
Can't believe CBS News has been using Gallup results to report on the state of the race.
gabeana
(3,166 posts)7. I heard that too
just shook my head
reformist2
(9,841 posts)3. Great analysis, and interesting inside look into how he crunches the numbers!
reformist2
(9,841 posts)4. Also, a good indication that Gallup is overly sensitive to partisan enthusiasm - on both sides.
mzmolly
(50,993 posts)5. Very interesting.
Thanks cthulu2016.
naviman
(102 posts)6. What's up with Gallup?
Gallup had a 26 point swing at one point in 2000??! Holy smokes! Why does anyone take them seriously??