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Battleground snapshot: Romney gains in the South
Battleground snapshot: Romney gains in the South
by kos
The latest TPM polling composites:
<...>
The bulk of this polling is pre-second debate, and points to further deterioration this week in the southern battlegrounds of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Note that Rasmussen is single-handedly boosting Mitt Romney's numbers in most of these states. Take Ras out in Virginia, and President Barack Obama leads by 0.6 points in the composite. Take Ras out of Florida, and Romney's lead is a less gaudy 2.6 points. Take Rasmussen and that crappy Gravis outfit out of Ohio, and it's Obama up by 2.3 points. And so on.
But I'm including the shitty Republican pollsters to give us a worst-case scenario look at the electoral picture. And even with them included, Obama leads 286-252 in the electoral college—not the gaudy 300+ EVs lead he once enjoyed, but still a lead.
It took 7-10 days before we saw the full impact of the first debate, so these numbers represent a sort of baseline for what the race looked like before the second debate. Now we wait and see if Obama was able to reclaim lost territory. And, of course, we GOTV.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/19/1147085/-Battleground-snapshot-Romney-gains-in-the-South
by kos
The latest TPM polling composites:
<...>
The bulk of this polling is pre-second debate, and points to further deterioration this week in the southern battlegrounds of Florida, North Carolina and Virginia. Note that Rasmussen is single-handedly boosting Mitt Romney's numbers in most of these states. Take Ras out in Virginia, and President Barack Obama leads by 0.6 points in the composite. Take Ras out of Florida, and Romney's lead is a less gaudy 2.6 points. Take Rasmussen and that crappy Gravis outfit out of Ohio, and it's Obama up by 2.3 points. And so on.
But I'm including the shitty Republican pollsters to give us a worst-case scenario look at the electoral picture. And even with them included, Obama leads 286-252 in the electoral college—not the gaudy 300+ EVs lead he once enjoyed, but still a lead.
It took 7-10 days before we saw the full impact of the first debate, so these numbers represent a sort of baseline for what the race looked like before the second debate. Now we wait and see if Obama was able to reclaim lost territory. And, of course, we GOTV.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/19/1147085/-Battleground-snapshot-Romney-gains-in-the-South
I noticed that about Rasmussen. Look at the NC trend.
On Oct 1, SurveyUSA had Obama up 2 point.
Since then, PPP issued a poll showing Romney up 2 points.
Additionally, Rasmussen has issued three polls showing Romney up 4 points, 3 points and 6 points.
The only other poll in the period since Oct 1 is Gravis, which puts Romney up 9 points.
Now here is the problem: Rasmussen, which is primarily responsible for the huge shift to Romney having issued three polls post Oct 1, has had Romney ahead the entire GE:
May, Romney up 8 points
June, Romney up 3 points
August, Romney up 5 points
September, Romney up 6 points
Now, other polling prior to Oct 1, grouped by poll
ARG: Romny up 4 points.
PPP:
Late Sept, tie
Early Sept, Obama up 1 point
August, Obama up 3 points
High Point:
Early Sept, Obama up 4 points
Late August (w/SurveyUSA), Romney up 3 points.
Civitas:
Mid Sept, Obama up 4 points
Early Sept (w/SurveyUSA), Romney up 10 points.
More polls: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/nc/north_carolina_romney_vs_obama-1784.html
The point is that since Rasmussen has always shown Romney ahead, by as much as 8 points, the race hasn't fundamentally changed in that state. Rasmussen is still showing Mitt ahead.
It's not clear to me that the lead Romney enjoys post Oct 1 is significant because it's based mostly on Rasmussen.
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