General Discussion
Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsCorrect me if I'm wrong, but I recall Gallup having Bush up by 10 close to the 2000 election...
But on election day morning they had Gore winning by about half a point...which was about his actual margin of victory...does anyone else recall this?
WhollyHeretic
(4,074 posts)In 2000, for example, Gallup had George W. Bush 16 points ahead among likely voters in polling it conducted in early August. By Sept. 20, about six weeks later, they had Al Gore up by 10 points instead: a 26-point swing toward Mr. Gore over the course of a month and a half. No other polling firm showed a swing remotely that large.
Then in October 2000, Gallup showed a 14-point swing toward Mr. Bush over the course of a few days, and had him ahead by 13 points on Oct. 27 -- just 10 days before an election that ended in a virtual tie.
In 1996, Gallup had Bill Clinton's margin over Bob Dole increasing to 25 points from nine points over the course of four days.
After the Republican convention in 2008, Gallup had John McCain leading Mr. Obama by as many as 10 points among likely voters. Although some other polls also had Mr. McCain pulling ahead in the race, no other polling firm ever gave him larger than a four-point lead.
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)But with their methodology...
hrmjustin
(71,265 posts)... polls had Bush up 4-7%
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)People worried the polls would become the story...and they now have done so.
former9thward
(32,082 posts)Their final poll was Bush 48% which was the election result. http://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=115543.0
joeybee12
(56,177 posts)valerief
(53,235 posts)justiceischeap
(14,040 posts)and their sample groups are too narrow. For example, who is home during the day when some calls go out? Are the people participating in the polls being honest? Are the majority of polls sampling cell phone users? There are too many variables in play to have accurate polls these days, in my opinion.
Mutiny In Heaven
(550 posts)Take PPP, for instance: One of their recent polls (which was tied overall) had Obama up by 6 with women and down 5 with men. Now, over 8m more women than men voted in 2004 and four years later, the difference was a shade under 10m. Do I seriously see the gender gap reaching parity this year? Do I fuck!
Taken out into the real world, unless the expectation is that women are going to be chained to the kitchen sink this year, Obama should be up by about 2-3 points in such a poll.