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Has there ever been such a difference (10+%) in reg. vs likely (Original Post) Tribetime Oct 2012 OP
incompetence more common than conspiracy Cicada Oct 2012 #1
Not like this, not that I remember. bemildred Oct 2012 #2
Most LV Models don't consider newly registered voters berni_mccoy Oct 2012 #3
Right Proud Liberal Dem Oct 2012 #4
Other elections didn't account for some of the factors. AnnaLee Oct 2012 #5
How in the world can you predict teabaggersarestupid Oct 2012 #6
What's The Sense Of Being A "Likely" Voter Now? KharmaTrain Oct 2012 #7

Cicada

(4,533 posts)
1. incompetence more common than conspiracy
Sun Oct 21, 2012, 10:48 AM
Oct 2012

If a pollster conspired to be inaccurate the word would probably get out and that pollster would be out of business. No sane pollster would change its likely voter screen without good reason (based on data about accuracy).

bemildred

(90,061 posts)
2. Not like this, not that I remember.
Sun Oct 21, 2012, 10:50 AM
Oct 2012

There have been games played with polls since there have been polls, but usually they are a bit more circumspect, a bit more concerned with their credibility AFTER the election. They seem to have decided to go full-on bullshit now. Orwellian, precisely.

Proud Liberal Dem

(24,446 posts)
4. Right
Sun Oct 21, 2012, 10:57 AM
Oct 2012

and how many newly registered voters go through all of the trouble of registering...........but ultimately don't vote? About the only people I see NOT voting are those current "undecideds", as well people who just think the entire political system is a crock and hate all politicians pretty much equally.

AnnaLee

(1,041 posts)
5. Other elections didn't account for some of the factors.
Sun Oct 21, 2012, 12:03 PM
Oct 2012

Maybe the differences are due to accounting for voter suppression, who owns the voting machines, voter intimidation, and all such legal and smart parts of today's country of free men. (Women left out due to uncertainty of status.)

 
6. How in the world can you predict
Sun Oct 21, 2012, 12:21 PM
Oct 2012

this though? And voter suppression doesn't seem to be working in OH at least, as early voting will be permitted the Friday before election day. All early voting favors Dems heavily. This shit makes no sense.

KharmaTrain

(31,706 posts)
7. What's The Sense Of Being A "Likely" Voter Now?
Sun Oct 21, 2012, 12:27 PM
Oct 2012

Haven't all states closed registration? Either you're going to vote or not...thus you are already "registered". The numbers are all over the map this year since there are so many numbers being bantered about by so many different "pollsters". I remember when you had two or three companies, now I see new names popping up every week. Thus I see a lot of confusion as right now it seems like everyone can cite numbers that prove their candidate is winning (which is important for the candidates themselves in raising last minute cash).

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