My two cents on why I think Obama will win:
I'm not among those who think it is a done deal. I am also not one of those who buy into "positive thinking", i.e. the theory that being optimistic will somehow lead to a good outcome. This isn't what this post is about.
It is just a gut feeling: A very long time ago I was taking martial arts classes by a seemingly pretty competent instructor. I remember one session where he spoke about street fights, and he said something in the effect of that he is not a big believer in measuring different "fighting styles" against each other and that usually a fight will be won by the person who remains in control of the situation.
Somehow that has stuck with me. I realize that Mitt has tremendous resources behind him, but so far, all things considered, it just seems like the Obama campaign remains "in control of the situation" in the sense that they are better projecting an image of competence and of having a plan for the future. I also think it is resonating with the public.
Maybe I'm just biased, but there it is.
On edit:
In a way the debates were a factor that contributed to this gut feeling, but not what was actually said in the debates but how the Obama campaign responded to the "responses".
I don't think Obama sounded "tired" in the first debate (granted I only watched the first half hour). I think he was simply being "formal" and sticking with the issues. But since the media decided was "tired" and the general media consensus seemed to be that he needed to be more aggressive, he did exactly that in the second debate. In other words, he remained "in control" and was able to adapt to what ever style was deemed preferential at the time. I think this is a display of competence, almost more than what was actually said in the debates.
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