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Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:25 PM Oct 2012

The cellphone issue

I don't want to be one of these "the polls are skewed" people, because it sounds desperate (although Obama is winning right now so maybe it isn't that desperate), however, this cellphone only issue has me wondering. I was reading an article t the Huffington post and it mentioned that nearly half of voters in Ohio don't use landlines anymore. However, most pollsters in Ohio right now are only polling landline phones. And this is the case all over the country. The pollsters that are touted by the media, like Gallup and PPP only poll landlines. And it does seem that those pollsters that poll cellphones are showing a much different race.

How can these polls be representative of the electorate, if half of voters are off the pollsters radars? Of course these are younger voters, who would lean democratic. So it seems that we have polls that are over sampling older, conservative voters while completely ignoring younger, liberal voters.

I don't want to use this as an opportunity to say I am right and Obama is actually way ahead, instead I am more interested in someone telling me why I am wrong. I am no polling expert but it seems to me that something is amiss here. How can this cellphone issue not be an issue?

9 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Gin

(7,212 posts)
1. I have a. Landline snd dont answer the call if its a number I dont recognize.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:36 PM
Oct 2012

i bet lots of others feel the same....so...their numbers include all households called...but not everyone answered...

DollarBillHines

(1,922 posts)
2. Same here. It is the older voters who will pick up the phone.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:42 PM
Oct 2012

By the way, I am 60.

The older, less sophisticated (no Caller ID, older phones, etc.), plenty of time on their hands type of voter will pick up the phone.

Gallup claims to have adjusted to a 50-50 ratio, but I know of not one cell user who answers "Blocked" or "Unknown" calls.

And those pollsters aren't leaving call-back numbers.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
6. So far in a week I have had 8 calls to my landline
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 05:00 PM
Oct 2012

which left no message on the answering machine, said answering machine I got in self defense from "Rachel" of cardmember services, who continues to call 3-4 times a week no matter how many times I " push 3 if you want to be removed from our calling list".
Pollsters are not gonna be responded to at all on my landline.
You would think that they would know sales calls have drastically limited pollster's ability to reach a household.

 

Arugula Latte

(50,566 posts)
5. That's a good point. Many landlines have caller ID now, which is a relatively recent development
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:53 PM
Oct 2012

as far as polling goes. I don't pick up unrecognized numbers either.

longship

(40,416 posts)
4. A plausible explanation for divergent polls.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 02:49 PM
Oct 2012

The question is whether there is any bias in who no longer has a land line. The next question is whether there is any data on cultural and political differences between those with land lines and those who do not. I think that some clued in PoliSci or SocialSci researchers could have studied this, but have not heard anything. (Not that I am looking.)

The polls do seem to be all over the place, which leads me to conclude that they just don't have things right.

I do not think they are deliberately skewing their results. I think they want to get things right, but are using out-of-date models for their sampling and their analysis.

Cell phones is a very plausible source for such divergence, but without independent research indicating it, I would not want to make that a definite conclusion.

Somebody should study this.

dixiegrrrrl

(60,010 posts)
7. geographic areas influence land lines.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 05:06 PM
Oct 2012

Example: We live in a rural area with dangerous storm history.
So we have a cell and a landline.
Cell is often unreliable here.
Only 2 options for internet connection are telephone company and Mediacom cable.
People around here will not use Mediacom for ISP because it has proven to be too unreliable.
Thus many have landlines PLUS cell or have only landline.
This state is 80% rural.

longship

(40,416 posts)
8. I agree.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 05:14 PM
Oct 2012

I only got recent reliable cell. And only Oct 1, a 4G connection. But I haven't had a land line for years, in spite of previously dodgy cell service.

There is no other Inet here, other than dialup on land line or Sat. No cable here either.

I am in very rural MI, 50 mi N of Grand Rapids or so. More deer here than anything else.

backscatter712

(26,355 posts)
9. I think a lot of the problem is that they're also using robocall polling.
Mon Oct 22, 2012, 05:21 PM
Oct 2012

I don't know about you, but when I answer a call and I hear a recorded voice instead of a live human, I hang up.

I read something earlier today, don't remember where, that suggested that there was a significant difference in results between robocall polls and polls done by live people.

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