Oct. 22: Ohio Has 50-50 Chance of Deciding Election

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/23/oct-22-ohio-has-50-50-chance-of-deciding-election/

October 23, 2012, 7:58 am

By NATE SILVER

The supposition that Ohio is the most important state in presidential elections is not always true. The decisive state in the 2000 election, of course, was Florida. (Al Gore also could have won by carrying New Hampshire or Missouri, both of which were slightly closer than Ohio that year.)

In 2008, Barack Obama won by a clear national margin, so the Electoral College did not really come into play. But had he suffered a sudden decline at the end of the race, Colorado or Iowa — not Ohio — would have been the decisive state (or what we call the tipping-point state in FiveThirtyEight parlance).

But this year, all the clichés about Ohio are true. In our most recent simulations, Ohio has provided the decisive vote in the Electoral College about 50 percent of the time.