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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsThe ‘momentum’ myth
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/post/the-momentum-myth/2012/10/25/f7fc67a6-1eaf-11e2-8817-41b9a7aaabc7_blog.html#pagebreakThe momentum myth
By Jonathan Bernstein
Republicans have been pushing hard this week to convince people that Mitt Romney is wrapping up the presidential election. Since hes not actually, well, leading, Romney partisans have relied on the idea that Romney has momentum: Even if he isnt actually ahead yet, he is certain to take a commanding lead any minute now.
But that momentum appears to have been entirely an invention of Republican spinners. Its certainly true that Romney made impressive gains on Barack Obama in roughly the first week of October, probably in most part as a consequence of the first debate. But after that, the contest has been almost completely flat. For example, the Pollster trend line shows the race a dead heat on October 8 and that since then, any movement has been only by small fractions of a percentage point. Nate Silvers nowcast bottomed out for the president on October 12, and since then hes recovered quite a bit. Theres simply nothing in the last twelve days to indicate movement towards Romney.
snip//
The real question isnt so much whether Romney or Obama has momentum, but whether there is any such animal when it comes to presidential elections. For the most part, its just a term campaigns use to excite their partisans and to fool gullible reporters into writing stories that create the illusion of momentum that never existed in the first place.
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The ‘momentum’ myth (Original Post)
babylonsister
Oct 2012
OP
Driven by media who are desperate to get every ad $ out of the campaigns that they can.
stopbush
Oct 2012
#7
libtodeath
(2,888 posts)1. RW media needing a horse race plus
their desire to see mitt the liar elected.
President Obama will win a historical landslide.
BumRushDaShow
(129,543 posts)2. K&R
rso
(2,273 posts)3. myth
Voting early on Saturday for Obama.
Kurovski
(34,655 posts)4. Well I'm certain Romney has three bowel movements a day.
We have to assume that's what they're talking about.
I think that's implied.
Hutzpa
(11,461 posts)5. Mitt Romney has only one ground game or momentum if you wanna call it that
and that is Chuckie Tee -- The Angle man.
socialaidem
(89 posts)6. I mean, what are you expecting them to say "Our campaign is failing"?
stopbush
(24,396 posts)7. Driven by media who are desperate to get every ad $ out of the campaigns that they can.
Horse race = huge spending.
Election pretty much decided = less $ spent on TV ads.
reformist2
(9,841 posts)8. Mitt had a 3-4 point bump in the week after the first debate, and that was it. And now it's gone.
rock
(13,218 posts)9. After losing three debates in a row where did this momentum come from?
sadbear
(4,340 posts)10. Since I'm not a star member...
an ad featuring a picture of Karl Rove accompanied the OP for me.