Auto Rescue and Low Home-State Bonus Keep Michigan Out of Play

The government’s rescue of the American automobile industry appears to have given President Obama a slight boost in Ohio, whose 18 electoral votes may very well decide the nation’s next president. Even at times when the presidential race has been a dead heat nationally, Mr. Obama has retained a consistent lead in Ohio, a state that has usually been slightly Republican-leaning relative to the country as a whole.

But in Michigan — the home of the auto industry — the political effects of the rescue of General Motors and Chrysler have received less attention. Mr. Obama carried Michigan by 16 percentage points in 2008, suggesting the state’s 16 electoral votes were out of reach for Mitt Romney, rescue or no rescue.

There are a few problems with this logic, however. First, Mr. Obama’s margin in 2008 was somewhat inflated. Senator John McCain essentially conceded the state, pulling his campaign out of Michigan about a month before the election. Polls showed Mr. Obama’s lead quickly ballooning. Had Mr. McCain contested Michigan through the final month, the 2008 margin might have been closer.

Mr. Romney was also born in Detroit and raised in suburban Bloomfield Hills. His father, George Romney, was governor of Michigan from 1963 to 1969. Presidential candidates have historically received an average bonus of roughly seven percentage points in their home state. In fact, the last native Michigander to run for president, Gerald Ford, received that exactly, winning Michigan in 1976 by five percentage points while losing the national popular vote by two.



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