General Discussion

Mass

(27,315 posts) Fri Oct 26, 2012, 04:57 PM Oct 2012

From the wayback machine, for those who are still wondering about RCP

They were (and still are, IMHO) very skewed AND very bad.

http://web.archive.org/web/20001212163700/realclearpolitics.com/Polls/polls-Electoral_11_06_EC.html

November 6, 2000
RCP Electoral College Analysis: Bush 446 Gore 92
Bush 51.2 Gore 41.8 Nader 5.7

CNN/USA Today/Gallup, MSNBC/Zogby and Newsweek have done a nice job closing the polls for Vice President Gore. All three polls now have Gore within two points and supposedly gaining. We'll see Tuesday whether the propaganda campaign to keep Democrats from becoming disillusioned and voting for Nader was successful in diluting the size of the Bush victory.

As we have said all along, Gore needed to close to within 2% in our RCP Composites to have a realistic chance to win. He has not done so. (RCP Tracking Composite Bush 47.3 Gore 41.2, RCP National Poll Composite Bush 47.0 Gore 42.8) George W. Bush will be elected President of the United States tomorrow by the American people. But the last minute Gore push in some polls has perhaps given enough liberal Democrats hope to not waste their vote on Nader.

The real debate is not who is going to win the election, but whether Bush will win 308 electoral votes or 474 electoral votes. The media's fantasy of Bush winning the popular vote and losing the electoral college is not going happen. The worst case scenario for a Bush victory will be a 2-3 point win in the popular vote and 10-20% more than the necessary 270 EC votes.

7 replies

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From the wayback machine, for those who are still wondering about RCP (Original Post) Mass Oct 2012 OP

That was written by the RCP people themselves? A-Schwarzenegger Oct 2012 #1

You've gotta be joking... AaronMayorga Oct 2012 #2

Great find. Disturbing, but great. nt progressivebydesign Oct 2012 #3

Thanks for the reminder. truedelphi Oct 2012 #4

Forbes recently bought 51% of the company. hrmjustin Oct 2012 #5

Their November 6 projection gave Bush a 50-50 chance of carrying California. Jim Lane Oct 2012 #6

I use their avg of polls. It's objective, raw numbers. In 2008, it was spot on. Honeycombe8 Oct 2012 #7

A-Schwarzenegger

(15,596 posts)

1. That was written by the RCP people themselves?

Reply to Mass (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 05:00 PM

Oct 2012

If so, wow, no bias there.

AaronMayorga

(128 posts)

2. You've gotta be joking...

Reply to Mass (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 05:00 PM

Oct 2012

This is hilarious.

progressivebydesign

(19,458 posts)

3. Great find. Disturbing, but great. nt

Reply to Mass (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 05:02 PM

Oct 2012

truedelphi

(32,324 posts)

4. Thanks for the reminder.

Reply to Mass (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 05:02 PM

Oct 2012

It's not who gets the vote - it's who counts the votes and who reports the vote count.

And remember that in 2004, it was Andy Card and his buddies at the George W White House and their internal analysis that had Andy call the networks around 3Am to tell the networks that the Republican candidate had again won the Oval Office. The networks, never to eager to discount anything told to them by their RW masters, announced George W's victory.

The next morning, James Carville whispered into John Kerry's ear that there weren't enough uncounted ballots (Dis-information, that tidbit) to allow Kerry to win, and Kerry surrendered.

hrmjustin

(71,265 posts)

5. Forbes recently bought 51% of the company.

Reply to Mass (Original post)

Fri Oct 26, 2012, 06:16 PM

Oct 2012

I stopped using the site.

Jim Lane

(11,175 posts)

6. Their November 6 projection gave Bush a 50-50 chance of carrying California.

Reply to Mass (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 01:27 AM

Oct 2012

Gore beat him by more than a million votes, a double-digit win (in percentages).

That's the one that jumped out at me, along with the hilarious overall prediction.

Thanks for the laugh!

Honeycombe8

(37,648 posts)

7. I use their avg of polls. It's objective, raw numbers. In 2008, it was spot on.

Reply to Mass (Original post)

Sat Oct 27, 2012, 01:37 AM

Oct 2012

The last RCP avg for 2008 was Obama +7.6. The actual election results were Obama +7.3. I don't read the articles.

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