Last edited Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:01 PM - Edit history (3)

Mark Blumenthal
2012 Polls: When Is A Lead Really A Lead?
10/27/2012 3:48 pm EDT - http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/27/2012-polls-lead_n_2031046.html


interest in the pre-election polls is at an all-time high, with at least one high-profile pundit confessing to being a "pollaholic."

But for all the dissection of polling methods, one question continues to be a particular source of confusion: When is a lead really a lead?

The aggregate pattern of the national tracking polls continues to indicate a very close race for the national popular vote, with mostly random variation from day to day. .......

Last edited Sat Oct 27, 2012, 10:08 PM - Edit history (2)

Busy day, little change overall!

===============
Oct. 25: The State of the States
By NATE SILVER = http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Thursday was a busy day for the polls, with some bright spots for each candidate. But it made clear that Barack Obama maintains a narrow lead in the polling averages in states that would get him to 270 electoral votes. Mr. Obama also remains roughly tied in the polls in two other states, Colorado and Virginia, that could serve as second lines of defense for him if he were to lose a state like Ohio.

....

Last edited Sat Oct 27, 2012, 05:12 PM - Edit history (1)

Last edited Sat Oct 27, 2012, 09:56 PM - Edit history (1)

8 Of 13 Election Forecasts Predict Obama Wins 2012 Popular Vote
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/8-of-13-election-forecasts-predict-obama-wins-2012-popular-vote-170355046.html

Several forecast models developed by prominent political scientists predict President Obama will win the popular vote in the 2012 US presidential election, with 8 of 13 polls giving Barack Obama the edge over Mitt Romney.

...the predictions appear in an election-themed symposium in the October issue of PS: Political Science and Politics, a journal ... range from predicting a 53.8% vote for Obama to a 53.1% vote for Romney. ............

============
7 Signs Romney’s Campaign is Losing - Jason Stanford
http://www.cagle.com/2012/09/7-signs-romneys-campaign-is-losing/

How do I know Obama is winning? Republicans are exhibiting all the symptoms of partisans trying to convince themselves that they’ve still got a shot when the election is all over but the voting. If you read between the lies, Republicans are acting like people about to lose.

.... You change your message ....

Forecasting the election: Most models say Obama will win. But not all.
Dylan Matthews - http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/ezra-klein/wp/2012/08/31/forecasting-the-election-most-models-say-obama-will-win-but-not-all/


... five new studies on how to forecast American presidential and congressional elections, ... four papers we’ve obtained ...

“Jobs model” uses five variables ... 2008 version ... had a standard error of 1.43 percent, and explained 94 percent of variation between president elections ...

............ more ...



======= comment ============

Interesting to see how developments may have altered model results, i.e. the jobs variables shifted in Obama's favor so does the "jobs model" need to be rerun today?

Last edited Sat Oct 27, 2012, 09:52 PM - Edit history (3)

userwww.service.emory.edu/.../Linzer-prespoll-May12.pdf

Predict Obama's odds in the 2012 election
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/special/politics/2012-election-predictor/

Political scientists at George Washington, Yale and UCLA believe most elections can be predicted with just a few pieces of information. They created a formula that uses economic growth, presidential approval ratings in June and incumbency to forecast President Obama’s share of the two-party vote in the Nov. 6 election ...

Last edited Sun Oct 28, 2012, 07:30 AM - Edit history (1)

Obama clings to slim lead in Virginia, according to poll
http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/decision2012/2012/10/27/6ce69246-2057-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_story.html


By Amy Gardner and Scott Clement, Saturday, October 27, 4:27 PM

President Obama is clinging to a slender four-point lead over Republican Mitt Romney in Virginia as both sides ramp up already aggressive campaigns in the crucial battleground state ...

Obama outpolled Romney, 51 to 47 percent, among likely Virginia voters, ....

... 4 percent of likely voters polled said they had already voted by absentee ballot. An additional 41 percent said they were likely to do so, ...

Fri Oct 26, 2012 at 05:30 PM PDT
Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Obama with strong day in the swing states to close out the week

... we get 43 polls to close out the week, and clear conclusions remain elusive, though the clear message from Friday's data is that you'd much rather be the president than his opponent.

The national polls continue their bounciness, although the president got his fair share of the bounces today. But the swing states looked especially good for the president today, including some GOP pollsters who, while still conceding a lead to the Republican, had the race far too close for comfort in states that Republicans have long presumed would be a lock in their path to 270.

.....

Florida - 2012 President - Obama 47%, Romney 45% (Grove Insight (D-Project New America/USAction) 10/23-10/24)
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/polls/grove-insight-d-project-new-america-usaction-16157

Population 600 Likely Voters
Margin of Error ±4.0 percentage points
Polling Method Phone

http://big.assets.huffingtonpost.com/GroveFL102512.pdf

Oct. 26: State Poll Averages Usually Call Election Right
By NATE SILVER - http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/10/27/oct-26-state-poll-averages-usually-call-election-right/


The FiveThirtyEight forecast model has found the past several days of battleground state polling to be reasonably strong for Barack Obama, with his chances of winning the Electoral College increasing as a result. The intuition behind this ought to be very simple: Mr. Obama is maintaining leads in the polls in Ohio and other states that are sufficient for him to win 270 electoral votes.

Friday featured a large volume of swing state polling, including three polls of Ohio, each of which showed Mr. Obama ahead by margins ranging from two to four percentage points.

............

Romney Campaign Brushes Off "538" Projections
Nate Silver's newest reader: Stu Stevens.
Oct 28, 2012 4:59pm EDT - http://www.buzzfeed.com/mckaycoppins/romney-campaign-brushes-off-538-projections


CELINA, Ohio — As Mitt Romney's campaign works to exude confidence in the home stretch, one wonky, liberal, self-made New York Times election forecaster has emerged as a particularly tricky obstacle.

Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight blog runs dozens of polls through a model that weights and averages them, and then spits out a daily forecast ... his latest projection gives the Republican just a 26.4 percent chance of winning.

The model's stubborn insistence on a likely Obama victory has earned Silver the wrath of conservatives, who accuse him of shoddy methodology at best, and sinister Obama-boosting at worst.

............Silver told BuzzFeed he's "a bit dismayed that the FiveThirtyEight forecast has become a story rather than what the polls say. It seems unhealthy, on a number of levels."...............

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:35 AM - Edit history (1)

With Obama trending so well, Florida may be a new ballgame. Under-polled Latino/Hispanic voting,GOTV efforts, and little enthusiasm for Zitt must be accounted for.

I agree with the OP.

Keep in mind, this guy worked for Ronald Reagan!

==========
In the senate, Dems 53



http://electoral-vote.com/

What red states are you flipping?

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:19 AM - Edit history (1)

Miami Herald poll: Obama, who defeated McCain by 16 points in Miami-Dade, ahead of Romney by 9
http://miamiherald.typepad.com/nakedpolitics/2012/10/miami-herald-poll-obama-who-defeated-mccain-by-16-points-in-miami-dade-ahead-of-romney-by-9.html

... The Herald’s poll of 625 likely voters, conducted by Jacksonville-based Mason-Dixon Polling & Research ....

Obama wins Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire. Romney wins Florida and North Carolina.

But I'm afraid that my opinion is different. I want Obama to win, but I think that it will be a bare victory for RMoney. Here is why. First, we have incontrivertable evidence that Racism is on the rise. We know Racists lie, and I think they are lying to the pollsters. I think more of them are planning on voting for RMoney than actually admit it to Pollsters. After all, who wants to admit, even to an unknown voice on the telephone, that they plan on voting for RMoney when the next question stumps them? "Why" and the only answer is "Because Obama is Black" which brings the horrid state of their soul out to the light.

I think that people are lying to the pollsters, because they want to be thought of as nice, but will vote for Rmoney because they are racists.

Second. Get out the vote. Everyone is talking about problems with the voting machines in the upcoming election because of Hurricane Sandy. But no one is considering this. If you are evacuated, you can't, CAN'T get back to your designated polling place. SO even if the machines work, you will be unable to enter the evacuation zone because of dangers to public health etc. So where do they set up the polling machines next? Where will the people from your district meet?

Finally. I think many of us, dedicated Progressives, will abstain because President Obama broke too many of our hearts. We are upset because he reauthorized the PATRIOT ACT. We are disgusted because he left Guantanamo Bay open. We are disappointed that he has caved to Rethugs on so many issues. The youth who are unemployed are probably not going to get out to the polls in the numbers we need, and I think those three factors lead to a RMoney win.

I honestly wish it wasn't so. I honestly wish that I had complete confidence that we were marching toward the victory we should enjoy. But I am unable to underestimate the stupidity of my fellow voter, or the sneaky tricks of the Rethugs. They need this victory, and they'll get it no matter the cost.

Start flaming that I'm merely a troll or a plant or whatever. Call me defeatist. But I called the importance of the first debate when plenty of people here said it didn't matter.

I sincerely hope you are.

But I think that Racism will be a much bigger swing that we are expecting. Racisim is up according to a study I linked above. If they find that 51% are effected by Racisim, then I suspect the number is actually much higher. As to how President Obama was elected? Several reasons come to mind. Republicans staying home out of disgust at McCain picking a dolt like Palin. Disgust with Palin. Hoping that a single vote would asuage their guilt at being Racist.

The Racists can't have any impact in job choices. They can't force minorities to move out of a neighborhood. They can't dictate schools be all one lilly white student body. They can vote, and vote they will.

Again, I hope you are right, and if I'm not explaining my impressions well, I am sorry.

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:07 PM - Edit history (1)

which is what this is about.

Yes, there are racists. Therefore, you need to assign those votes to particular states, in order to convert that to electoral votes. Etc.

I don't think you understand this choosing of the electoral votes count/states thing.

Check out www.electoral-vote.com

Check out www.fivethirtyeight.com

Check out www.realclearpolitics.com

All those sites have an electoral map, assigning electoral votes based on the most recent polls. Polls take into account racism, etc. They do not take into account the hurricane, of course. But if the hurricane hits Republican eastern states, those votes will be affected as well.

No flaming here. Just pointing out that your post is an ideological, opinion post, which is not what this exercise is.

You seem to believe that racists exist only in Southern states. I grant they do live here. But there is Racism everywhere. In northern states, western states, and the West coast. In the North East as well. There are racists. Take Ohio for a moment. Are there racists there? Certainly. According to the AP story listed above, fifty one percent of the whites are. Now, some Republican voters are misguided, honestly (if child like) believing that nonsense. Those are the dolts that watch Faux news. Some are voting Republican because Dad did. Some are voting because they believe God is calling them to do it. The question is how many will cross over from us, to the Repugniks because of Racism? How many would lie about it to Pollsters?

I used to drive OTR trucks, and would see evidence of Racism everyday all over the country. You all do. You just don't think about it. When a White Man is pulled over by police, one cop will normally write the ticket. When it is an African-American Man, in a similar car, two cops minimum. People will say sir to a white man, and something else, familiar sounding, to a black. Like friend, pal, buddy, or something else. They say Ma'am or Miss to white women, but don't do it to black women. I saw examples of Racism in New York, and in Florida. I saw it in California, and in Washington State, and everywhere in between. Racism is all around us, and when can they do more than this subtle action on it? Election day. They can vote the black man out of office.

Now those racists are all united in one thing. They swear they are not racists. They'll name minorities they work with, and even a few have neighbors they are neighborly with, but not friends. So when asked in the poll, I can see them claiming to support President Obama, and all the while planning on voting for Robme. If five percent of the population, a minuscule amount, a true minority, are doing that, then the election, those battleground states with very close polling, are absolutely in play.

I remember a TV show from years ago. A twilight zone kind of thing. Perhaps Outer Limits. Anyway, the story was that Aliens promised to clean up all the pollution, if we would give them our black people. A telephone vote was held, and guess which way it went down. The blacks in the show tried to talk about the contributions to society, but whites, in the privacy of their homes, voted how they really wanted. Polling leading to the election was solidly in keeping the blacks. Obviously that was TV, but don't you think that would be the very outcome should such an offer be presented?

If one in twenty voters are as I suggest, then we may have a very big problem this election. Take a moment and consider how much subtle racism you see every day, and ask yourself how those subtly racist people are going to vote. I suspect they'll vote for Robme, and swear they voted for Obama to friends and coworkers. Especially if they work with any African-Americans. They will lie. Racists always lie.

...I hope that the punchline was that the "pollution" to be cleaned up was everyone not taken in by the aliens.

As far as how racists vote in secret, let me tell you about my Dad, who had not a little bit of racism and bigotry in him and who voted for every Republican going back to Ike (edit: now that I think of it, I think I talked him into voting against GWB in '04). In the last election, he confided to us, he voted for Senator Obama, for reasons that were more important to him than race. It was clear to him that the past election was one of substance versus image, and he chose substance.

Just, he asks, don't tell his golfing buddies.

As far as this election goes, I don't have to worry the old man changing his mind, either. He's now fine with a black President, but he still despises the Mormon Church.

I also share your concerns. Driving around the suburbs of Saginaw, Mi. I see numerous yard signs for Romney. This both bothers and confuses me. The bother from the seemingly strong support for Romney in middle class neighborhoods and the confusion from seeing so many people supporting a candidate that is basically against their best interests. Can all these people actually be racists ? Or are they just totally brainwashed by faux noise and their compatriots ?
In conclusion my prediction is Obama 300 +, Romney whatever is left. And if Romney wins it will be caused by voter fraud and manipulation.

Which states do you think Romney will win?

Here's my map --

http://www.270towin.com/2012_election_predictions.php?mapid=VSE

Actually, it should be less 1 Electoral Vote for President Obama as I think Nebraska will split 1 off for Romney, but the chart there doesn't allow for that sort of allocation.

Much easier to predict the electoral vote than the popular vote.

Now half of them don't trust it, while the other half (the half that watches Faux Snooze) thinks people can get actually get a college degree from there.



When I was in high school, clear back in the mid-70s, I knew about the frickin' Electoral College.

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:11 PM - Edit history (1)

above quote from the OP

My non conservative number is 315.

I will be surprised if it goes over 300

Obama takes NV, WI, MI, OH, IA, PA and OH with ease. He wins CO, VA and NC by a nail. He wins NH.

Romney takes FL.

You have OH twice--did u mean MO?

He wins NH by...what?

I think I was just trying to be clear that I don't think OH is actually in play.

NH by 4-5 points.

It was on here somewhere just yesterday that MO. is as red as texas.

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:17 PM - Edit history (1)

Florida, Virginia, and North Carolina are in play in most polls, and the trend is all Obama now.

Obama could win there....but I gave 'em to R, to be conservative.

The results are good. Obama still wins.

I just don't know if he will take it.

Either way, I'm of the opinion that President Obama's chances of winning are better than average.

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:22 PM - Edit history (1)

This is shaping up as predicted:

================
http://www.examiner.com/article/new-polls-obama-now-holding-leads-florida-ohio-virginia-and-wisconsin-1

... new Reuters/Ipsos poll released Sunday shows the president with a narrow national advantage, leading the former CEO of Bain Capital by two points, 47 to 45 percent. A new Minneapolis Star-Tribune poll has Mitt Romney trailing President Obama by three points in Minnesota, down 47 to 44 percent, with ten electoral votes on the line. ...

... With the Sunshine State of Florida seeming like a lock for Mitt Romney, the new PPP poll now puts President Obama in the lead by one point. The lead is nothing to celebrate, but considering Romney had a lead as much as seven points in Florida over the last two weeks, the president and his campaign have to be happy at the swing in momentum. ....

... According to a new Washington Post poll, President Obama is leading Mitt Romney by four points in Virginia eclipsing the important 50 percent threshold, holding on to a 51 to 47 percent advantage. The PPP poll has President Obama matching his exact Virginia numbers in Ohio, leading Mitt Romney 51 to 47 percent. ...

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:21 AM - Edit history (1)

CLICK the Intention to Vote tab at the top. Very interesting stuff.

The RAND Continuous 2012 Presidential Election Poll
https://mmicdata.rand.org/alp/?page=election#election-forecast

.... unique perspective on voter intent as we near the 2012 presidential election. ...

Why This Poll Is Different

First, it allows us to ask the same people for their opinion repeatedly over time. In comparison to most polls, this leads to much more stable outcomes; changes that we see are true changes in people's opinions and not the result of random fluctuations in who gets asked the questions.

Second, we may be more accurately capturing the likely votes of a greater number of voters in the crucial “middle” .....

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:29 AM - Edit history (1)

Advantage Obama in hunt for 270 electoral votes
By THOMAS BEAUMONT | Associated Press – 8 mins ago
http://news.yahoo.com/advantage-obama-hunt-270-electoral-votes-163526687--election.html

AMES, Iowa (AP) — President Barack Obama is poised to eke out a victory in the race for the 270 electoral votes needed to win re-election, having beaten back Republican Mitt Romney's attempts to convert momentum from the debates into support in all-important Ohio, according to an Associated Press analysis a week before Election Day.

..........

While in a tight race with Obama for the popular vote, Romney continues to have fewer state-by-state paths than Obama to reach 270. Without Ohio's 18 electoral votes, Romney would need last-minute victories in nearly all the remaining up-for-grabs states and manage to pick off key states now leaning Obama's way, such as Iowa or Wisconsin.

.........

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:23 AM - Edit history (1)

Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight tweeted:

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:25 AM - Edit history (1)

PPP Confirms Late Obama Surge in Swing States
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/28/1151872/-PPP-Confirms-Late-Obama-Surge-in-Swing-States


Public Policy Polling released three polls this evening, all of them bearing good news for the home team. But it's even better than that. In PPP's last 8 swing state polls, in 8 different states, Team Obama has gained over their previous poll.

Same state, same polling organization, same polling methodology, 8 straight increases. Those increases, by the way, range from 1 to 4 points and an average of 2.4 points. In any one case you could explain the increase by random fluctuation. But 8 straight in 8 different states? What are the odds?

If you had a coin with Obama on one side and Romney on the other, what are the odds it would come up Obama 8 straight times? That would be 0.5 to power of 8 or less than 1%. To be exact, 0.39%.

It's not random. Here are the details:

Oct. 28, Ohio 51-47 Obama (from 49-48 a week prior)
Oct. 28, Florida 49-48 Obama (from 48-49 Romney two weeks ago)
Oct. 28, NH 49-47 Obama (from 48-49 Romney last week)
Oct. 25, CO 51-47 Obama (from 50-47 last week)
Oct. 25, NC 48-48 Obama (from 47-49 a week and a half prior)
Oct. 25, IA 49-47 Obama (from 49-48 a week ago)
Oct. 25, WI 51-45 Obama (from 49-47 three weeks prior)
Oct. 25, VA 51-46 Obama (from 49-47 last week)

Pretty stunning really. ..............

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:26 AM - Edit history (1)

Parsing The Political Polls & Predicting The Winners: Report From 20 Paws Ranch
http://themoderatevoice.com/165366/parsing-the-political-polls-predicting-the-winners-report-from-20-paws-ranch/

My view is that Obama voters are generally underrepresented in polls, and nail biting aside, Obama will win the popular vote on November 6 by a few percentage points and win the Electoral College in a landslide.

What is your view? Do you think that the polls are accurate? If not, why? And what is your prediction for the popular and Electoral College vote results?

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:25 PM - Edit history (1)

Pollster: Undercounted Cellphone Users Hide Obama's Lead
—By Andy Kroll - Oct. 29, 2012 10:04 AM PDT - http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/10/polls-cell-phone-obama-voters-undercount


Are Obama voters underrepresented in presidential polls because they use cellphones?

That's the argument put forward by Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg ... an increasing percentage of Americans have ditched their traditional land-line phones and now use only cellphones. A year ago, 32 percent of adults ... Greenberg estimates that that figure is now 37 percent. And government statistics show still larger percentages of hispanics, blacks, and young people—all of whom are more likely to favor Obama, polls show—use cellphones only.

... Greenberg writes, some polls used to gauge the state of the presidential race don't reach these people ... cellphones are blocked from receiving robocalls .. Greenberg went back and analyzed 4,000 of his polling firm's interviews this election season and found that cell-only voters break for Obama in significant numbers. As the following charts show ...



............

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:26 PM - Edit history (1)

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:27 AM - Edit history (1)

That Romney plunge is what I expected between debate three and the vote counting. I see that as a continuing trend with Romney dropping back to his old mean pre-debate one as the hype wears out and the opinions of real people replace the propaganda. Even the media can no longer ignore the growing number of Romney negatives.

...and I grew up in Indiana, so I know how unlikely that would be..

other than that I think Obama will win all the other toss-up states except NC.

IMO Obama will win with 303 electoral votes.

Last edited Wed Oct 31, 2012, 09:17 AM - Edit history (1)

Nate Silver update 12:15 AM ET on Oct. 31
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Obama at 299 - 238 Romney, 77.4% chance of winning
+10.7 since Oct. 23 Electoral vote
+9.3 since Oct. 23 Chance of Winning
Obama wins popular vote 74.9%

Obama Chance of winning
OHIO 78% Projected vote share +2.4
NV 83%
IA 74%
CO 61%
NH 75%
VA 62%
WI 88%

Expect this trend to continue, with Florida shifting blue by Tuesday!

Place your "official" predictions while you can!!

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:28 PM - Edit history (1)

October 31, 2012 - http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2012/10/obama-leads-50-45-in-ohio.html
Obama leads 50-45 in Ohio

A new Public Policy Polling survey in Ohio, conducted on behalf of Health Care for America Now, finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 50-45.

Key findings from the survey include:

-Obama’s approval rating is at the key 50% mark, with 47% of voters disapproving of him. Romney’s under water on his favorability, with 46% of voters rating him positively while 48% have a negative opinion.

-Obama’s already amassed a large lead in the state. 33% of voters say they’ve already cast their ballots and he leads 62-35 with them. Romney has a 50-45 advantage with those yet to vote.

-Obama leads with both women (53/44) and men (48/47). ...........

Today, Mitt Romney Lost the Election
By Josh Barro Sep 17, 2012 = http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-09-17/today-mitt-romney-lost-the-election.html


You can mark my prediction now: A secret recording from a closed-door Mitt Romney fundraiser, released today by David Corn at Mother Jones, has killed Mitt Romney's campaign for president.

On the tape, Romney explains that his electoral strategy involves writing off nearly half the country as unmoveable Obama voters. As Romney explains, 47 percent of Americans "believe that they are victims." He laments: "I'll never convince them they should take personal responsibility and care for their lives."

So what's the upshot? "My job is not to worry about those people," he says. He also notes, describing President Obama's base, "These are people who pay no income tax. Forty-seven percent of Americans pay no income tax."

This is an utter disaster for Romney. ..............

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:30 PM - Edit history (1)

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 07:49 AM - Edit history (1)

Chance off Winning 78.4%

In the table below, I’ve listed the current forecasts at seven different Web sites that use state polls, sometimes along with a modicum of other information like a state’s past voting history, to produce predictions of the popular vote in each state.

The first of these sites is FiveThirtyEight. The others, in the order that they’re listed in the table, are Electoral-Vote.com; Votamatic, by the Emory University political scientist Drew Linzer; HuffPost Pollster; Real Clear Politics; Talking Points Memo’s PollTracker; and the Princeton Election Consortium, which is run by Sam Wang, a neuroscientist at Princeton. These are pretty much all the sites I’m aware of that use state polling data in a systematic way.

Last edited Thu Nov 1, 2012, 10:33 PM - Edit history (1)

79% chance of winning

Popular vote 50.5 - 48.6

Florida still leaning red, but that should shift soon too, a huge change to come yet!

Probabilities:
Nevada 85.2%
Ohio 79.9%
Virginia 61.3%
Colorado 62.6%
Iowa 78.4%

Sorry but I think it's going to be close in both the popular vote and electoral vote

Last edited Fri Nov 2, 2012, 12:55 AM - Edit history (1)

No toss-ups, Florida mild Republican.

Don't ask me why??

"Obama Appears to Have Momentum
http://www.electoral-vote.com/

A new PPP poll released late yesterday has President Obama leading Mitt Romney 50% to 47% nationally. This is the first lead of 3 points either candidate has had for weeks. Obama led in all three days of the poll (Nov. 1-3). His approval rating is now positive ... "

"rolling forecast model" UPDATE:

Obama wins all the '08 states except FL, NC and IN. I still have some hope that my native Florida swings toward Obama, but right now the trends are going towards Romney so i'll grudgingly give it to him.

Updated Friday, Nov. 2 6:48 am ET
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/2012/romney-vs-obama-electoral-map

Iowa now blue leaning instead of toss-up and PA leaning instead of strong blue, NC is a toss--up instead of leaning red.

217 Strong Obama
42 Leans Obama
88 Tossup
0 Leans Romney
191 Strong Romney

While the rest of the known universe (at least everywhere except on the planet Mitt will be the god of after his glorious ascension into the afterlife), has Obama gaining and a certain winner, the HP is downgrading Obama. I guess they quit reading the polls! Also, they can't count states on their own map. They say 11 toss-ups and show only 10.

Toss-ups are OR, NV, IA, WI, OH, NH, VA, NC, FL

Thu Nov 01, 2012 at 06:30 PM PDT
Daily Kos Elections Polling Wrap: Is all the talk of a popular vote/electoral vote split legitimate?
by Steve Singiser - http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/01/1153502/-Daily-Kos-Elections-Polling-Wrap-Is-all-the-talk-of-a-popular-vote-electoral-vote-split-legitimate

On a very light polling day (as we slid past below 50 polls on the day), and a day when a raft of GOP-inspired polling served to muddle the message a bit, we turn our attention to an oft-debated topic in the past several days. Is a 2000 redux, with one candidate being declared the winner in the electoral college, and the other winning the national popular vote, really as plausible as a number of pundits now insist?

For sure, there may be no more persistent recurring theme in the presidential election of 2012 than the ceaseless (and often perplexing) divergence between national polls that have shown a genuine coin flip between the two presidential candidates, and state polls that have shown the president in a rather modest but consistent advantage, portending an electoral college majority than has almost always wavered between around 280-330 electoral votes.

This has led election observers and analysts to spend most of the latter half of October in endless speculation about the prospect of a virtual "split decision" next week. For the first time in a dozen years, the pundit class was forecasting a very real prospect of a Romney victory in the national popular vote, but an Obama win in the electoral college.

Is this even remotely possible? ............

PRESIDENTIAL POLLING:

NATIONAL (ABC/WaPo Tracking): Obama 49, Romney 48

NATIONAL (High Point University): Obama 46, Romney 43

NATIONAL (Ipsos/Reuters Tracking): Obama 47, Romney 46 (LV); Obama 47, Romney 43 (RV)

NATIONAL (Rasmussen Tracking): Romney 49, Obama 47

NATIONAL (UPI/CVoter): Obama 48, Romney 48

Last edited Sat Nov 3, 2012, 07:04 PM - Edit history (1)

Obama's steadfast climb in the polls continues. http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
The popular vote margin keeps expanding, now at 50.6 - 48.4

Florida adjusted polls have shifted to a tie, with Obama winning P = 0.45.

Ohio Obama up 3.2% with a winning P = 0.84

Nate Silver’s Braying Idiot Detractors Show That Being Ignorant About Politics Is Like Being Ignorant About Sports
http://updates.gawker.com/post/34789397805/nate-silvers-braying-idiot-detractors-show-that-being

By David Roher

In case you haven’t been hanging around the benighted corners of the political internet lately, there’s an idiotic backlash afoot against Nate Silver, the proprietor of the FiveThirtyEight blog who made his name as one of the sharpest baseball analysts around.

With the election just a few days away, analysis based on state poll aggregation—Silver’s included—suggests that Barack Obama is a heavy favorite against Mitt Romney. The president holds a slight but strong lead in key electoral states. This doesn’t sit well with many political pundits, who insist that the outcome is anyone’s guess and headed down to the wire. Many of these people have directed their anger toward Silver, whose New York Times-hosted blog has predicted a strong probability of an Obama victory since June. They insist he is biased or sloppy in his methodology, even though they seem unaware of how he makes his predictions and of statistical analysis in general. They say—and I’m not kidding—he’s too gay for this sort of work.

In retrospect, we should’ve seen it coming. It was only a matter of time before the war on expertise spilled over into the cells of Nate Silver’s spreadsheets ...............

this is what Glenn Beck is all about this week.

Last edited Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:43 AM - Edit history (3)

this method of blogging that news gives a picture of how things are changing over time, while the actual sites just update and do not show the past page.

Not to mention, rank on search engines is all about keywords, content, links, etc.

On edit, this is also a historical record and may prove useful after the election for researchers and pundits.



Oh, and (on edit), there are just too many good cartoons

CNN Electoral Map here: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2012/ecalculator#?battleground

Last edited Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:03 AM - Edit history (1)

Obama Leads In Ohio, Narrowly Ahead In Florida, Poll Says
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/11/03/obama-ohio-florida-polls_n_2068613.html

Or did you make a mistake?

1.) the Mourdock impact and women votes,
2.) unrepresented by polls segments of the population,
3.) the fact that the reality of Romney/Ryan (Liar/Liar) would sink in, and
4.) my own certainty that Romney and Ryan would keep sticking their feet in their mouths,
in essence their indefatigable ability to defeat themselves.

Joker steals (and I mean steals) Ohio, Fl. and :Wash-Clean-Dishes-For-Charity" finagles Wisconsin.

Obama wins VA, IA, and Colorado for 271

...and no other surprises regarding so called leaners. I'll do the math later if I get a chance

Updated 1:27 AM ET on Nov. 4
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

Florida remains a toss-up: Adjusted polling average 47.7 to 47.7.
It now looks like the best GOTV effort will win Florida.

Nate give Obama an 85% chance of winning Ohio
Adjusted polling average = Obama 48.6 - 45.3 Romney.
You can drive an American Jeep thru that gap!

Virginia now looks safe, but the GOTV effort really matters.
Adjusted polling average = 48.0 : 46.4 = Obama +1.6

Likewise in Colorado: Adjusted polling average has Obama +1.6

Iowa looks safe, withj an 83% chance of winning.
Adjusted polling average = 48.5 : 45.1 = Obama +3.4

12pm eastern time.

http://www.blogtalkradio.com/lesersense/2012/11/04/a-recap-of-the-week-in-politics-and-a-look-ahead

Think about this excerpt:

"... some systematic error in the swing state surveys is concealing a hidden Romney advantage ..."

WATCH:

http://new.livestream.com/barackobama/Iowa