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Quixote1818

(28,976 posts) Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:15 AM Oct 2012

Betfair now has Obama with a 70% chance of winning

Any thoughts on why a Brittish betting site would give Obama a better shot than Intrade? Intrade gives Obama just under a 64% chance.

http://www.predictwise.com/politics/2012presidentindividual

3 replies

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Betfair now has Obama with a 70% chance of winning (Original Post) Quixote1818 Oct 2012 OP

Intrade is Irish. And those percentages are really pretty close compared to Loudly Oct 2012 #1

InTrade doesn't set odds. ThatPoetGuy Oct 2012 #2

Nate Silver is up to 77% for Obama JenniferJuniper Oct 2012 #3

Loudly

(2,436 posts)

1. Intrade is Irish. And those percentages are really pretty close compared to

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:23 AM

Oct 2012

where American polling experts put the percentages.

ThatPoetGuy

(1,747 posts)

2. InTrade doesn't set odds.

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:29 AM

Oct 2012

(I think) the numbers on InTrade represent how much money people are actually betting. But the way it is right now, at basically 2 to 1 on Obama, a dollar bet on Romney would pay off with two dollars if Romney wins, while a dollar bet on Obama would pay off with fifty cents when Obama wins. So the numbers are likely to level off after a while.

I think this is how InTrade works. I'd appreciate being corrected if I'm wrong.

JenniferJuniper

(4,515 posts)

3. Nate Silver is up to 77% for Obama

Reply to Quixote1818 (Original post)

Wed Oct 31, 2012, 01:40 AM

Oct 2012

as of about an hour ago.

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