Intertesting discussion with an elections professor

I had a discussion with a guy that researches elections this morning. He said that this is one of the oddest elections he's seen. Here are a few of the key points he made:

1) He works closely with pollsters (Dem, Rep, and Neutral) and has good relationships with them. He's never seen a case like this where the Dem and Rep pollsters are all convinced that they've got this one. This isn't their public confidence bluster. Each side privately and pretty strongly believes that they will win. The difference isn't in the poll question answers. The difference is in determining who will show up. The Rs think that the Ds are relying on a flawed 2008 based turnout model and the Ds think that the Rs are relying on a flawed 2004/2010 model.

2) The state to watch is Virginia. If Obama wins NC, FL, or VA, the election is over and you can go to bed early. If VA is extremely close, it still probably means a win for Obama.

3) What happens in a tie? This has been discussed here a few times recently. He said that Romney would win easily. The Rs have probably 29 solid state delegations. Biden, however, would probably win the VP nod because Ds are going to keep control of the Senate. Even in the unlikely event of a tie, Joe gets to cast the deciding vote and indications are that he'd prefer to keep the job over giving it to Ryan.

4) Rs are FURIOUS at Christie. Giving a simple thanks to O would have been OK, but he overdid it. Not sure if he was just being honest or thought that he was appealing to independents, but the R establishment won't ever forget it.

5) Ds will very likely control the Senate. Unless Romney wins, the Rs will take the Senate in 2014. The Ds will have too many seats to defend and year 6 of a Presidency is a tough year for the incumbent party in congress.

6) Rs will control the House. How big the margin will be is still in doubt, but there aren't any reasonably likely scenarios where the Ds take back the house this time.

7) The first debate performance was tragic. Obama put in the worst televised debate performance in history (his words, not mine!). Also, people were genuinely nervous about Romney before the debate and he got them over that fear (by lying, of course). The debate took this from a pretty easy win to a close race.

8) The storm helped Obama. It slowed the Romney momentum. It showed Obama being Presidential and in command. Romney was stuck without the ability to really campaign effectively and he needs to because he still has to win over more independents to win. He didn't think it would have any effect in the Electoral College, but it would hurt Obama in the popular vote.

9) This is a purely domestic issue election. He said that voters seemed almost determined to ignore foreign policy. That's why Obama is getting no credit for taking out Bin Laden or ending the Iraq War. It is also why he doesn't think that Fox's Bengazi campaign will have any effect at all. He said that at this point, no one is changing their mind. It is all about winning over undecided voters and they just don't care about foreign policy.

10) Some in our group asked about energy policy and its effect on the election and he said that coal was the only issue that changed votes. He said that it will make Romney's margin in WV that much larger. It could hurt Obama in Penn and maybe even Ohio, but that Obama would still probably carry both states.

11) The upcoming jobs report is a risk for Obama. If the jobless rate is above 8, the Rs will pounce. They are totally geared up to take advantage of any bad news here. He thinks that bad news here is one of the few things that could really move the needle.

In the end, his view was that it is too close to call but that if he had to bet, he thinks that Obama has the edge in the EC and Romney has the edge in the popular vote. He thinks that will lead to a President Obama presiding over an intransigent and divided congress and not being able to accomplish anything significant domestically. When asked what legacy Obama would strive towards in his second term, he said that his first two years were all the legacy that he would have.