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bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:50 PM Nov 2012

For those of you with little experience in watching election night returns...

Expect Obama to trail in the popular vote for much of the evening (and he may not win the popular vote at all). The West Coast states don't come in until 11 Eastern, and New York not until 9PM. Four years ago it was close in the popular vote until California et al. closed and then the popular vote opened up a bit.

Also, expect that Romney may be leading in electoral vote count for parts of the evening until the West Coast comes in.

Those of you who have done this before know that; this message is not for you. But for those of you to whom this is a new thing, please don't come onto DU and have a freakout.

49 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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For those of you with little experience in watching election night returns... (Original Post) bluestateguy Nov 2012 OP
also in most states, the rural areas which tend to be GOP returns appear before the urban areas Fresh_Start Nov 2012 #1
That is sometimes true bluestateguy Nov 2012 #2
Came in first? Control-Z Nov 2012 #19
Hehehe. Great minds. n/t TDale313 Nov 2012 #6
Great advice. TDale313 Nov 2012 #3
Yea, I do remember freaking out early in the 2008 election rightsideout Nov 2012 #4
There's also the issue of a absentee ballots. Blue_In_AK Nov 2012 #5
If President Obama wins all the states he's supposed to win east of the Rockies sadbear Nov 2012 #7
Also....Xanax.... ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #8
And friends and family TDale313 Nov 2012 #10
+1 nt ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #21
And Stoli for us Commies! Hell, i'll even be serving Jack for the rednecks on Obama Tuesday! OffWithTheirHeads Nov 2012 #12
As a matter of fact... dchill Nov 2012 #26
No, lots of wine. That's what I do. n/t RebelOne Nov 2012 #43
I've got to wash them down with something... ProudProgressiveNow Nov 2012 #45
Keep this thread bumped over the next 4 days! Lex Nov 2012 #9
Also know that your favorite Political and news sites TDale313 Nov 2012 #11
I've "done this before" but I'm always a wreck! gateley Nov 2012 #13
My recommendation: ignore BOTH PV and EV... regnaD kciN Nov 2012 #14
I think I'll hide out in Cooking and Baking until 11 PM PT. I couldn't watch until the end last time freshwest Nov 2012 #15
I'll get my husband to watch for me LeftInTX Nov 2012 #17
There's a thoroughly depressing thread saying 'Romney has already won the electronic vote.' freshwest Nov 2012 #18
Yes, the voting machines... TDale313 Nov 2012 #20
I just found and posted something from Alternet that is a long disclaimer of the voting worry: freshwest Nov 2012 #23
Also count on 78 Electoral Votes for Obama coming in late, after West Coast polls close DLnyc Nov 2012 #16
I'm in WA liberal_at_heart Nov 2012 #22
What on earth did we do before the internet? BouzoukiKing Nov 2012 #24
Wow, that is a kid that is dedicated to politics :) LeftInTX Nov 2012 #36
Yeah, well... BouzoukiKing Nov 2012 #40
This one is going to be called early Egnever Nov 2012 #25
Me too... dchill Nov 2012 #27
I'm sure hoping for another 11pm EST call LadyHawkAZ Nov 2012 #30
I think it'll be called Wednesday afternoon to tell you the truth davidn3600 Nov 2012 #32
I freaked out in 2008 naviman Nov 2012 #28
Oh But We'll Have CNN's John King and his Touch Screen he plays with like a toy YOHABLO Nov 2012 #29
I think MFM008 Nov 2012 #31
Question.. DO you think MSM will AsahinaKimi Nov 2012 #33
I don't think they will LeftInTX Nov 2012 #37
That didn't happen in 2008. joshcryer Nov 2012 #39
When Ohio comes in Blue it will be all but over jimlup Nov 2012 #34
I think if Obama gets Virginia or Florida then Ohio is going blue. Lex Nov 2012 #35
If Obama gets Flordia jimlup Nov 2012 #44
Well sure Lex Nov 2012 #47
Good advice but remember results aren't going to come in much... joshcryer Nov 2012 #38
I'll be watching a long movie and eating Ben & Jerry's, deliberately ignoring the election. Butterbean Nov 2012 #41
kick TDale313 Nov 2012 #42
This is why I made my own electoral college excel sheet lindysalsagal Nov 2012 #46
kick. TDale313 Nov 2012 #48
Bumping this one... TDale313 Nov 2012 #49

Fresh_Start

(11,330 posts)
1. also in most states, the rural areas which tend to be GOP returns appear before the urban areas
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:52 PM
Nov 2012

so you will see states look like are going GOP which will correct when the urban centers are included

bluestateguy

(44,173 posts)
2. That is sometimes true
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:55 PM
Nov 2012

Fairfax County seems to come in late in Virginia; SF and LA counties come in late in California; St. Louis and St. Louis County tend to come in late in Missouri. On the other hand, I distinctly remember in 2004 that Philadelphia's votes came in first in Pennsylvania that year.

Control-Z

(15,682 posts)
19. Came in first?
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 01:32 AM
Nov 2012

Or were Philadelphia's votes the first ones changed? Or did they come in while others were being tampered with? That night, at midnight, the tallies became erratic. Remember? Blue states in close races suddenly turned to red by refreshing the browser.

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
3. Great advice.
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:56 PM
Nov 2012

Also, keep in mind that less densely populated areas ( which tend to be more conservative) often come in quicker.

One more thing: unless it's a source you really know and trust, pretty much ignore all rumors and "reports" that flow in throughout the day. It'll be far better for your nerves and blood pressure.

rightsideout

(978 posts)
4. Yea, I do remember freaking out early in the 2008 election
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:57 PM
Nov 2012

CNN was rattling off one red state after another so it was a bit unnerving watching the electoral votes pile up for McCain. But after the Blue states started coming in, it added up quickly for Obama.

That's how I remember it.



Blue_In_AK

(46,436 posts)
5. There's also the issue of a absentee ballots.
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:57 PM
Nov 2012

I remember in 2008 it seemed like forever before we knew whether mark Begich had beaten Ted Stevens. Or who can forget Al Franken. Patience is the name of the game.

sadbear

(4,340 posts)
7. If President Obama wins all the states he's supposed to win east of the Rockies
Fri Nov 2, 2012, 11:58 PM
Nov 2012

he'll have 192 EV's even without Florida and Virginia. California, Oregon, and Washington alone would give him 270 (no real need for Nevada.) So if he wins those east and midwest states, it's over.

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
10. And friends and family
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:04 AM
Nov 2012

That won't think you're nuts if you start cussing at the computer or tv. If you're fortunate to have people in your life who get it, count your self blessed.

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
11. Also know that your favorite Political and news sites
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:08 AM
Nov 2012

Including DU, will be crazy busy, probably slow, and will possibly crash at some point. And DU may get to high-traffic level five, so if you can spare a few bucks for a star membership, it's a good time to do it.

regnaD kciN

(26,045 posts)
14. My recommendation: ignore BOTH PV and EV...
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:30 AM
Nov 2012

Just watch as the swing states are called. In the east, if we lose PA, we're in trouble; if we pick up FL, VA, or NC, it's great, but not necessary. When you get to the central time zone, we need MN and Wi. Obviously, all eyes will be on OH, but we might be able to put together a winning combination without it as long as we hold on to the states above plus IA. As we hit the mountain states, watch CO and NV -- whether we need these or not will depend on the results from further east.

So, I'd just concentrate on those states, and not care what the total nationwide vote, or even the running EV total is at any given time. Do well in those states, and we'll win, period.

LeftInTX

(25,555 posts)
17. I'll get my husband to watch for me
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 01:18 AM
Nov 2012

I'm concerned about VA, FL, and OH
I'm afraid they're going to be too close to call until late at night.

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
18. There's a thoroughly depressing thread saying 'Romney has already won the electronic vote.'
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 01:29 AM
Nov 2012

IOW, this nightmare of an election wouldn't be over on Nov. 7th.
It's gonna give me an ulcer, I swear. A lot of lives of people I know will be strongly affected. This is no disagreement on how to govern this year. This is it, and I've seen a lot of elections but what's gone on in the last 10+ years shows these guys are close to taking over everything.

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
20. Yes, the voting machines...
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:31 AM
Nov 2012

Are a HUGE concern. And yes, the Republicans are trying to game the system any way they can, but... there's still reason to be hopeful. At this point, I'm convinced they can only get away with shaving a little here, a little there. We need turnout, we need to overwhelm them.

The second thing that gives me hope? Obama's not Kerry. He's not gonna let them steal this without a fight. And he's the incumbent, a plus that neither Gore nor Kerry had. The DoJ's watching.

I also think they're fighting for paths to 270 that don't necessarilly include Ohio or Florida, the two states the GOP seems to be playing dirtiest in.

freshwest

(53,661 posts)
23. I just found and posted something from Alternet that is a long disclaimer of the voting worry:
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:41 AM
Nov 2012
5 Reasons Karl Rove Is NOT Going To Electronically Steal This Election

http://www.democraticunderground.com/10021699329

It ws sooo long that I just took the first four paragraphs as a summary and then put the link there. Go there if you want that, or for more specifics to the link original source:

http://www.alternet.org/election-2012/5-reasons-karl-rove-not-going-electronically-steal-election?paging=off

It made me feel better. This online world is a bubble at times. Everywhere I've gone I see Obama voters and they are positive. We chave some great personal stories here to bring one to the reality of how many people have decided to stand up and vote for Obama. See you later...

DLnyc

(2,479 posts)
16. Also count on 78 Electoral Votes for Obama coming in late, after West Coast polls close
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 01:17 AM
Nov 2012

See this very good post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/1251203369

Last time (2008) they couldn't call it until 11:00 pm EST (I think it was) because they don't want to call it while people are still voting on the west coast. At one second past 11:00 they swung the camera to a grinning Keith Olbermann who called it for Obama (assuming by exit polls Cal., Wash., Ore., Hawaii all going for Obama by big margins).

Note: I guess for some reason they don't care that people are still voting in Alaska and Hawaii when they call it. At some point, ratings trump fairness, seems like.

liberal_at_heart

(12,081 posts)
22. I'm in WA
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:33 AM
Nov 2012

I may not even watch at all until we close our voting here on the west coast. I have enough stress in my life.

BouzoukiKing

(163 posts)
24. What on earth did we do before the internet?
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:47 AM
Nov 2012

The first election results I ever watched were in 1960. I was nine. My dad had graph paper and a couple of excellent maps he'd drawn (he was an artist), that he filled in as the results were announced on our flickering B&W TV.

I made it until about two or three AM before I crashed.

That night I had one of the two most vivid dreams I ever had: I dreamed a classic nuclear bomb had been dropped and crashed through the bedroom wall of our loft. It had the same box-shaped fins as the one we dropped on Hiroshima (Little Boy), and the three-ringed atomic/nuclear symbol painted on the nose. Just as it exploded I woke up to JFK's presidency.

The changing of the guard...

BouzoukiKing

(163 posts)
40. Yeah, well...
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:07 PM
Nov 2012

...maybe when I was demonstrating against the Vietnam War in 1960, I got that they were gonna draft my ass.

 

davidn3600

(6,342 posts)
32. I think it'll be called Wednesday afternoon to tell you the truth
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 04:40 AM
Nov 2012

Most here are confident of a landslide. Im not.

I think it's going to be sort of like 2004 except Ohio going our way this time.

I think it's going to be close.

naviman

(102 posts)
28. I freaked out in 2008
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:33 AM
Nov 2012

My first election and right at the beginning it was 8-3 McCain and I panicked LOL. Good times.

MFM008

(19,818 posts)
31. I think
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 04:35 AM
Nov 2012

Not 1 MSM station will call the race in ANY controversial state. To EARLY to call, to CLOSE to call. They will call all the stuff thats easy. I wouldnt be surprised if they call FLorida, Ohio, even New Hampshire until after we close on the West Coast.

AsahinaKimi

(20,776 posts)
33. Question.. DO you think MSM will
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 05:00 AM
Nov 2012

Call the election before the polls close on the West Coast?? Seems like that happens every year for Presidential Elections.

Lex

(34,108 posts)
35. I think if Obama gets Virginia or Florida then Ohio is going blue.
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:37 PM
Nov 2012

Kind of shows the mood of the electorate.

Lex

(34,108 posts)
47. Well sure
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:39 PM
Nov 2012

but my point was a larger one about the mood of the country to re-elect him in general.

joshcryer

(62,276 posts)
38. Good advice but remember results aren't going to come in much...
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 12:52 PM
Nov 2012

...until the polls close in CA. The MSM hates the 2000 debacle where they called it early so they keep the numbers to themselves.

I expect, like 2008, as soon as the CA polls close they call it for Obama.

Butterbean

(1,014 posts)
41. I'll be watching a long movie and eating Ben & Jerry's, deliberately ignoring the election.
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:10 PM
Nov 2012

Ever since 2000, my nerves just can't handle it. My stomach is already doing flips, and it's only freaking Saturday. Screw it.

TDale313

(7,820 posts)
42. kick
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 02:18 PM
Nov 2012

Cause we really can use all the "survival" tips we can get I also recommend chocolate. Chocolate makes everything better.

lindysalsagal

(20,731 posts)
46. This is why I made my own electoral college excel sheet
Sat Nov 3, 2012, 03:26 PM
Nov 2012

for tuesday: I've already got the solid states in there, so, Obama starts the night with 183, not 0.

Then, I tinker as they come in. Much better on my blood pressure.

I'm willing to share: Just email me.

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