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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNATE SILVER: For Romney to Win, State Polls Must Be Statistically Biased
To be exceptionally clear: I do not mean to imply that the polls are biased in Mr. Obamas favor. But there is the chance that they could be biased in either direction. If they are biased in Mr. Obamas favor, then Mr. Romney could still win; the race is close enough. If they are biased in Mr. Romneys favor, then Mr. Obama will win by a wider-than-expected margin, but since Mr. Obama is the favorite anyway, this will not change who sleeps in the White House on Jan. 20.
My argument, rather, is this: weve about reached the point where if Mr. Romney wins, it can only be because the polls have been biased against him. Almost all of the chance that Mr. Romney has in the FiveThirtyEight forecast, about 16 percent to win the Electoral College, reflects this possibility.
Yes, of course: most of the arguments that the polls are necessarily biased against Mr. Romney reflect little more than wishful thinking.
Nevertheless, these arguments are potentially more intellectually coherent than the ones that propose that the race is too close to call. It isnt. If the state polls are right, then Mr. Obama will win the Electoral College. If you cant acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public.
But the state polls may not be right. They could be biased. Based on the historical reliability of polls, we put the chance that they will be biased enough to elect Mr. Romney at 16 percent.
MUCH MORE:
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/nov-2-for-romney-to-win-state-polls-must-be-statistically-biased/
yourout
(7,532 posts)For R$mney to win.
Jennicut
(25,415 posts)I like our odds. Their odds are not nearly as favorable. And I have a feeling the polls with their LV models are more biased against Obama then Romney.
Frumious B
(312 posts)I like this side of him.
JaneyVee
(19,877 posts)they were once again proven wrong by a gay half-Jew, just to put the icing on the cake.
theKed
(1,235 posts)I enjoy the slightly veiled shot at MSM (and most likely CNN in specific) for their insistance on it being "too close to call"
"If you cant acknowledge that after a day when Mr. Obama leads 19 out of 20 swing-state polls, then you should abandon the pretense that your goal is to inform rather than entertain the public."