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Nate Silver explains the math the haters ignore
http://www.laobserved.com/archive/2012/11/nate_silver_explains_the.phpBy Kevin Roderick | November 3, 2012 1:03 AM
Sure, the writer and stats guru behind the New York Times' FiveThirtyEight blog has a complex algorithm to back up saying that President Obama is the favorite to win on Tuesday. But the math, he says, is actually quite simple: "Obama’s ahead in Ohio."
Silver explains on the blog:
A somewhat-more-complicated version:
Mr. Obama is leading in the polls of Ohio and other states that would suffice for him to win 270 electoral votes, and by a margin that has historically translated into victory a fairly high percentage of the time.
The argument that Mr. Obama isn’t the favorite is the one that requires more finesse. If you take the polls at face value, then the popular vote might be a tossup, but the Electoral College favors Mr. Obama.
So you have to make some case for why the polls shouldn’t be taken at face value.
