by allowing themselves to be taken over by a minority of teabaggers that voters will give President Obama a Congress that he can work with.

Fingers crossed.

I've just got this hunch the President is going to do MUCH better than even expected!

Can't take back something you already have. Just sayin'.

I am 100% confident Obama will win handily, and I'm also 100% confident we maintain and even increase our majority in the Senate. But I haven't been following the House races at all, so I'm going to need somebody to shed some light on what is going on there for me. I'd love for Obama to get a friendly Congress for once, but my gut (and most of the media I've heard talk about it) tells me that we won't get the House. Of course, I never expected us to get the Senate back that year it came down to the wire in Virginia and Minnesota and Alaska, but we pulled that one out.

(10th Dist - Michigan)...

There's a chance that could happen if people pull the D lever... hoping...

Please, let me be shocked!

Why would s congress with a bad, bad approval rating, not become Democratic?

Approval ratings only seem to matter when it's the other guy they're talking about. Everybody seems to think their own guy is just fine.

Hard to understand, but true. Last sycle, something like 60 seats changed hands. That's less than 20% of the House.

Happened in an off year, to boot. Same as in 2006.

Nope, no reason yet, yours have been defeated.

If the vote is counted correctly, it is a Democratic house in 2009. If.

and I hope they're real Dems, not the Blue Dog scum that enabled the Repubs for years.

I'd love to have Nancy back as Speaker. She kicked ass!

People say "throw all the bums out" but they mean "throw them all out except the one bum from my district".

The House is not going to happen.

It happened in 2010 with republicans. Am I the only one who knows these facts? Or the only one not in denial?

If the votes are counted correctly, the House will be Democratic. If.

It's a discussion board - people are permitted to disagree with you and not expect to be ridiculed for it.

Grow up.

This stuff is important to me. When people don't use facts it is fucking irritating. The house has changed hands many times and this is the time for it to change back to Democratic hands.

No one yet has given any factual reason why it will not this time. Especially you. It's as if the truth irritates you? Why? Why waste your precious time attacking me and not the republicans?

You're just too thin-skinned to be on a discussion board where people might disagree with you.

You're right, facts are facts, and so far, you haven't provided any that back up your claim that Democrats will take back the House. You were presented with fact about the power of incumbency in the House, and your only response to the facts was "BS" and insinuating that the poster was ignorant.

And get over yourself - you aren't the only person to whom this election is important. It's important to everyone on this board.

Insinuating?

Let me ask you, have you got any facts pertaining to this election that do not involve me?

I think i got your number. Its seems to be zero.

And I'll wait for you to come here Tuesday night and whine about how all the House elections were stolen.

You are of the opinion that the republicans will win the house?

And that the republicans don't steal elections?

And yes, I believe they will retain the House in this election. And no, I don't believe that every time a Republican wins an election, it's only because of theft.

Factually, we don't have Democratic candidates who will receive a majority vote in 218 or more House districts.

What is factual is that the House is NOT going to flip to the Dems this time around, that's fact whether you want to believe it or not. We'll hold the Senate and Pres. Obama will still be our Pres. That's fact.

tapped you on the shoulder and you haven't presented a single one. Not one. Your kind of bullshit should be attacked.

I alerted on this and the jury says 1-5 Leave it.

Well, this kind of reaction to my simple statements of Democratic victory really makes DU suck.

Yes, your kind of bullshit, Cali, should be attacked.

....a quantifiable fact?

The onus is really on you to show why you think it will follow the exception, not the rule.

This republican congress has a very low approval rating.

In the last two years progress has ground to a halt.

The last time we had a democratic house from 2008-10 much progress was made.

The turnout in presidential races is always higher than midterms and with the number of Democrats turning out and NOT voting for republicans down ticket leads to more Democrats being elected.

Most people are in favor of Obama and they know he needs the congress to back him and not fight him.

....they are toast.

The problem is the big swings happen in off years when either one party or another turns out in mass to kick the bums out. It's not going to happen in a presidential year when both sides are heavily voting. The districts will generally show their natural leanings towards each party down the ballot.

Like it or not, the "every other guy sucks but my own" rule usually holds.

Add to that Rethug redistricting in 2010 and it will be an uphill climb. 20-30 seats picked up would be a good night for us.

it ain't going to happen, we'll keep the Senate, but the House will remain in the Repukes hands. That's the reality of it.

Not one is predicting a dem takeover. It's not happening and believing it is is a delusion.

Off year elections seem the best chance. I'm thinking we can turn it in 2014 as people get tired of obstructionism.

Neither of those is this year.

Definitely agree 2014 is possible

So even if there was a viable candidate to go up against an incumbent Republican, there is little chance of the incumbent losing the seat. I think we will pick up a few seats, but don't think we will win it back. There are currently 240 Republicans, 190 Democrats and 5 vacancies in the House. A swing of 50+ seats would be awesome, but unlikely.


Party representation at beginning of 112th Congress.


"Partisan domination of state legislatures and improved technology to design contiguous districts that pack opponents into as few districts as possible have led to district maps which are skewed towards one party. Consequently many states including Florida, Georgia, Maryland, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Texas have succeeded in reducing or effectively eliminating competition for most House seats in those states. Other states including California, New Jersey and New York have opted to protect incumbents of both parties, again reducing the number of competitive districts. The Supreme Court's ruling on the Pennsylvania gerrymander effectively cemented the right of elected officials to select their constituents by eliminating most of the grounds for disenfranchised constituents to challenge gerrymandered lines."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Redistricting

The House of the People should not be in the hands of those that represent corporations.

But this is one bet I'd love to lose. You betcha!

I've got a feeling about VA-7, Eric Cant(or)'s district.

Wayne Powell, the dem challenger has run a good campaign. We see a lot of of his yard signs in Richmond. If we get a really good turnout, ECant might get turned out as well!

in Church Hill (City of Richmond). If Powell turns this out, and you hear about two middle aged women arrested for streaking down the street, it's us. We laughed the other day that is what we will do to celebrate.

Be grateful, two out of three ain't bad.

Upon what do you base your opinion?

that Democrats will take the House?

The reason we will take back the house is because the republican congress has obstructed the country's business. The people of America have seen that and will vote out many republicans as a show of support for Obama.

You demand facts from others to support their positions, but offer none to support your own.

Your "fact" is that Republicans have been obstructionist, so Americans will vote them out?

Newsflash: Republicans were obstructionist in 2009 and 2010, and they still won the House away from the Democrats in 2010. Using your "facts", Democrats should have increased their majority, not lost it completely.

As a poster said earlier, the typical voter saying "Throw the bums out" is usually talking about some other guy's bum, not his own.

Where are they today? HCR was big news, Where is that today? Obama was not running. The turnout was awful. The economy had tanked.

Now, HCR is a good thing. The economy is coming back. The teabaggers are history, Obama is running and the turnout will be higher. In the larger turnouts Dems win more seats. The republicans are bums. Throw them out. Join with us, why don't you?

But that doesn't change the fact that Democrats are not going to take back the House.

No way we come close, you'll see Tuesday night.

You need a filibuster proof Senate.


Need 60 so that all obstructionist blame can be focused directly on the house.

McCaskill could still lose despite that asshole Akin's rape comment, that's one Senate seat that may flip, I hope not, but there it is, in NV, Heller is probaby going to hang on to retain his Senate seat. We'll hang on the the Senate, but the House, as much as I would like it to flip, is not going to happen

a Dem house.

If the Democrats took back the House and expanded their majority in the Senate they would have a very hard time doing the awful things to us that they are going to do over the next two years.

There's no party support for liberal candidates across the country, especially in areas where the republicans are traditionally strong but the constituents are pissed off at the teabagger they put in two years ago. They actively torpedoed populist candidates in the primaries. The writing is on the wall. The corporate Democrats are going to do the things the republicans could never get done.

Once again, I hope I'm wrong but history says I'm not. So, I'll gladly take your bet knowing that losing will be so worth it.

"There's no party support for liberal candidates" = what a crock! Who the hell are "The corporate Democrats" in your view? I know party leaders, and you are mistaken about who they are.

to catch you up on what's been done over the last 6 - 20 years. If you cannot even identify the corporate Democrats, you are either a low information voter or a dedicated team player, neither of which is beneficial to those of us that see and want the real changes this nation needs.

including working for Bob Kennedy in '68. I've met my share of party leaders.

I'll take your evasion as Romnesia, unless you'd like to answer the question.

in that time in our names by our party. It is not my intent to dissuade anyone right now, so if you really want to know, get back to me on the 7th, and I'll give you a lengthy laundry list to start you off.

Four more years.... of gridlock.

I think the country is fed up with all the teahadists and is read for grown-ups to take over.

Julie

All the R House will do is look for things to investigate and grounds for impeachment.

What's your logic? What can you link to that explains it?

sorry, it's not happening. And btw, we already HAVE the Senate, so we can't "take it back". I think we'll hold the Senate by approximately the same slim margin we have now.

The defeatism here loudly proclaiming defeat in the House simply astounds this old politico, new DUer.

Not a single one of you have come up with any facts, or valid history to back your defeatism; you carry on like chicken littles.

There being 435 seats up for election, there are none of you who can grasp the whole situation except to be as negative as possible.

Like I say, amazing to see such defeatist attitudes.

just reality, which you seem to have a hard time grasping. I would love to see the House flip, but I live in the real world, not FantasyLand

All you have presented here is your desires, much as I have done. Only I have also added in the history about the wave of democracy that times like these demand.

Now, if you are right, and more than half this country demands more teabaggers and idiots to be in power, then any wise man would do well to part with such company,

I feel a need to express hope, and find posters such as you, GB, to be most discouraging.

Now are you pleased as peaches that you are seen in such a bad light? After all, you could just walk away from the keyboard, but no, you just keep typing defeat, over and over and over.

Get the hint?

stating reality, I'm sorry you can't accept that, however, most of us do face the reality of the House remaining in the Repukes hands, I really wish it would flip, but unless there were a huge miracle, it ain't gonna happen, that's the reality of things.

Get back to me on Tuesday and let me know how well your prediction worked out, oh, an if your so sure about us taking back the House, then go to to Intrade and place a bet, odds are 20-1 against, if you win, you'll collect a tidy sum depending how much you put down, but, if I were you, I wouldn't place a large wager.

your claims of us taking back the House except wishes and dreams.
If you have proof that we'll win back the House, then by all means, post it w/links.

The dems need a 25 net seat win to take back the House. This is a close election. YOU, genius, haven't provided one fucking iota of evidence to back your ludicrous claim that we'll take back the House.

I hate fantasy politics. It's stupid.

What is it that drives you to post such sad defeatist drivel?

I have explained quite a few times in this thread why we are gonna (read should win) and not one here has convinced me otherwise. So, you fail.

Now, again, if you feel that Americans are so stupid that they will be stating: "Please, master, hit me again" why are you even here?

I feel that America, given a proper vote counting, will replace many republicans with Democrats. Why does that stir up such passion from some of you? Why does that dig at your craw and make you post defeatism? Why?

"defeatist drivel". Gad, I get sick of the mendacious dog shit.

You haven't cogently or intelligently explained squat.

What stirs up passion from is patent, stupid shit.

"We are going to lose" is it that you don't understand?

"We are going to lose" is defeatism. You do know the meaning of the word, right?

America is gonna empty the cup of the teabaggers. Why does that idea make you post such ill words?

Why don't you just join the rest of the free world, and say:
"I hope we win". Instead of your defeatist: "We are going to lose"

I said we're not going to take back the House. It's simple fucking math. You do know what math is, don't you, sweetheart?

And here: If, as I expect, we retain the Senate and keep the Presidency, I think that will go a long way toward ridding us of teabaggers.

And sorry, but I don't do group think or mindless parroting- I'll leave that to others.

Oh, and I've said repeatedly that I hope fervently that we win, so stop fucking putting words in my mouth. It's despicable.

How the hell do you lose what you don't have?
I've read alot of Cali's post and there is no defeatism anywhere. Where do you come up with this shit? All I see is posts based on reality, unlike yours.
Get over yourself.

The Rs are a very slight favorite for the senate, but for the house, it would have to be a major, MAJOR upset. Romney is more likely to win the presidency than we are to win the house.

Of course he's gonna report that Democrats are gonna fail. That's a given. That's his job, as far as I can tell.

his job is to predict who he thinks will win what. I guess if Nate Silver had predicted a Dem takeover of the House, you would be praising him.
The reality of it is that we aren't going to regain the House, we'll more that likely hang on the the Senate with a slim majority, and Obama will be our Pres. for the next 4 years.

I thought we lefties were supposed to pride ourselves on critical thinking, not unthinking cheerleading. Nate called 49/50 states right last time around in the presidential election, and every single senate race.

Not only is your reasoning flawed, your allegations are completely wild. I have heard lots of people saying Silver is in the tank for the Democrats, but never in my life have I heard it the other way around. Until today.

Who pays Nate?

It would be easy to predict races when the programmers of the machines tell you ahead of time who is gonna win. Jeez, even an idiot can grok that.

But since you are not an idiot, tell me how Nate makes his money. You trust him so much you surely must know, right? Right off the top of your head even.

And.... here's question number two: What does Nate say about Obama? He has Obama ahead by 10 points, right?

I guess you can just fake all those polls if you get paid enough.

Or No-Bainer, possibly...

These guys have sunk their own battleship! Unless EVERYONE in America was masturbating frenetically for the last YEAR, Boehner and his ilk will be lucky to get a gig chasin' stray dogs in Podunk or some other suitable backwater location when this is all thru... I hope. I mean, the sheer contrast of the last 12 years MUST've opened more than a few eyes... I hope.
But hey, nothin' wrong with having a heart filled w/hope... and one NEVER KNOWS just when the game might suddenly change dramatically...
Just between you, me and the Mayans, huh?

We may (in fact I expect) gain seats in the House, but not nearly enough to gain a majority. God willing, we'll keep the Presidency and Senate. Congress though? No.

Maybe in another 2 years, but for now, we just have to prepare ourselves for another dead-locked Congress. Hopefully with Obama in his second term, the GOP will fracture, and there may be representatives more willing to compromise with the Democrats. Not going to hold my breath though.

Have been babysitting, recooperating from babysitting, and paying hardly attention to the computer. I just checked "My Posts" and can't believe the number of replies and the "R's" - I kind of just posted for the hellofit thinking "who cares what I think?"

Thanks for responding to my "dream wish" post. Who knows, it could happen (but it won't)..

But if it did, I want single-payer health care first on the list...

and we gain 20? 30? seats in the House. Or even 'just' the first two!

You know, I'd agree with the more sensible of you who say that we can't/won't take back the House, but I used to say and believe, until 2008, that a black man couldn't be elected President of the United States....

I don't want to be wrong again. I'm a confirmed believer in "maybe."