Food for thought - Nate Silver tweeted this link - article of his from 2009

http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/11/15-essential-questions-to-ask-in-close.html

15 Clarifying Questions For Close Elections

"In 1994, baseball statistics godfather Bill James developed the Keltner List, a series of 15 gut-check questions that he suggests should be asked of players who are close calls to enter the sport's Hall of Fame. In thinking through my "call" of New Jersey, which I'll issue later today, I realized that there are a similar set of questions that I pose to myself in the event of elections that are too close to call from the polling alone. Some of these questions are subjective, while others will require a little bit of research, but for the most part they should lend themselves to relatively clear answers.

As you look at these questions, think about how you'd answer them for New Jersey, or NY-23, or perhaps Barack Obama's election last November, or George Bush's in 2004. The way that I prefer to do this is to assign up to 3 points to either of the candidates (but never both) for each question, depending on the magnitude of their advantage -- no points need be awarded if the factor is inapplicable or neither candidate has a discernible edge. When I do this for New Jersey, I come up with a relatively clear answer, as you'll see later.

1. Which candidate's supporters are more enthusiastic?

2. Which candidate is liable to have the better turnout operation?"

snip

To me, Obama certainly has most if not all of the 15....what do you think?