General Discussion

Hissyspit

(45,788 posts) Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:24 AM Nov 2012

85.1%! - Nate Silver Update 1 a.m. Nov. 4: Trend Continues UP for Obama

Final Sunday Before Election.

86.1% Chance of Winning on the Nov. 4 Forecast

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com

...86.3% Chance of Winning on the Now-Cast.

NOV. 6 FORECAST:

ELECTORAL VOTE DISTRIBUTION (The probability that President Obama receives a given number of Electoral College votes):

STATE-BY-STATE PROBABILITIES:

22 replies

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Highlight:

85.1%! - Nate Silver Update 1 a.m. Nov. 4: Trend Continues UP for Obama (Original Post) Hissyspit Nov 2012 OP

Get above 85% already! Doctor Jack Nov 2012 #1

It's the rise in Electoral Votes that I like to see. Hissyspit Nov 2012 #2

I'm seeing 85.1 right now. dchill Nov 2012 #12

Apparently so! He updated it yet again. Hissyspit Nov 2012 #19

You should really edit your subject... regnaD kciN Nov 2012 #3

yes, and amborin Nov 2012 #4

O.K. Hissyspit Nov 2012 #6

It's Tied! mindwalker_i Nov 2012 #5

Watch it! I'm pretty sure... dchill Nov 2012 #13

No Mandate! As per Cha Nov 2012 #15

great numbers. n/t TDale313 Nov 2012 #7

It is like the first debate never happened. mick063 Nov 2012 #8

.. Cha Nov 2012 #17

Peaking at just the right time. TDale313 Nov 2012 #18

Wow, 84.4% ...and that's with Fla. going to Romney! SunSeeker Nov 2012 #9

the rate of divergence seems to be increasing... BlueMan Votes Nov 2012 #10

Damn we're almost back to pre debate levels! budkin Nov 2012 #11

k&r n/t RainDog Nov 2012 #14

Is that before or after they mixed up the MT poll? fujiyama Nov 2012 #16

There is an 85 percent chance that I will kick this post. nt Hissyspit Nov 2012 #20

2 DA MOON! flamingdem Nov 2012 #21

Up, up and away!!!!! lexw Nov 2012 #22

Doctor Jack

(3,072 posts)

1. Get above 85% already!

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:25 AM

Nov 2012

So damn close! Come on!

Hissyspit

(45,788 posts)

2. It's the rise in Electoral Votes that I like to see.

Reply to Doctor Jack (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:26 AM

Nov 2012

Also, swing states turning from pink to light blue.

dchill

(38,505 posts)

12. I'm seeing 85.1 right now.

Reply to Doctor Jack (Reply #1)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:02 AM

Nov 2012

Nate read your post!

Hissyspit

(45,788 posts)

19. Apparently so! He updated it yet again.

Reply to dchill (Reply #12)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:38 AM

Nov 2012

regnaD kciN

(26,044 posts)

3. You should really edit your subject...

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:27 AM

Nov 2012

...since the number we've been talking about there is the forecast (currently 84.4%), not the now-cast.

amborin

(16,631 posts)

4. yes, and

Reply to regnaD kciN (Reply #3)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:30 AM

Nov 2012

the now cast had been 97% back a ways

Hissyspit

(45,788 posts)

6. O.K.

Reply to regnaD kciN (Reply #3)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:31 AM

Nov 2012

Although the Now-Cast is only two days away from Nov. 6 now. But I see your point.

mindwalker_i

(4,407 posts)

5. It's Tied!

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:30 AM

Nov 2012

dchill

(38,505 posts)

13. Watch it! I'm pretty sure...

Reply to mindwalker_i (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:03 AM

Nov 2012

CNN copyrighted that!

Cha

(297,322 posts)

15. No Mandate! As per

Reply to mindwalker_i (Reply #5)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:18 AM

Nov 2012

tom brokaw.

TDale313

(7,820 posts)

7. great numbers. n/t

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:39 AM

Nov 2012

mick063

(2,424 posts)

8. It is like the first debate never happened.

Reply to TDale313 (Reply #7)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:48 AM

Nov 2012

n/t

Cha

(297,322 posts)

17. ..

Reply to mick063 (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:23 AM

Nov 2012

TDale313

(7,820 posts)

18. Peaking at just the right time.

Reply to mick063 (Reply #8)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:28 AM

Nov 2012

Which is great.

SunSeeker

(51,574 posts)

9. Wow, 84.4% ...and that's with Fla. going to Romney!

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:52 AM

Nov 2012

BlueMan Votes

(903 posts)

10. the rate of divergence seems to be increasing...

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:58 AM

Nov 2012

the lines are getting farther apart faster.

budkin

(6,703 posts)

11. Damn we're almost back to pre debate levels!

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:58 AM

Nov 2012

This is fantastic!!!

RainDog

(28,784 posts)

14. k&r n/t

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:11 AM

Nov 2012

fujiyama

(15,185 posts)

16. Is that before or after they mixed up the MT poll?

Reply to Hissyspit (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 02:18 AM

Nov 2012

It shouldn't make a big difference, but just checking.

I like that VA has moved above 70%. I'm as confident in him taking that state as OH, maybe a bit more. I think Husted will try to pull all sorts of shit in OH.

The Now Cast and Forecast models are converging as expected.