OmahaBlueDog has no clue (but you knew that already...)

I'll be travelling next week. I voted on the first day of early voting, so assuming Dave Phipps didn't put my ballot in an incinerator, chalk one up for my side.

I have no clue how this ends. I've thought al along that Barack Obama would be reelected by a razor thin margin, and that looks possible. OTOH, Nate Silver has him winning in something pretty robust, but not quite a landslide. On still another hand, there are pols and pollsters selling the notion that Romney will win PA, WI, and OH. I've heard tell of people being handed pre-filled ballots for Romney in Florida. And then there's the Sandy devastation zone. It's nasty business, and Hunter Thompson is nowhere to be found when we really need him.

This much I do know:

Just about half of this country is in for a rude awakening: In 2008, the cons knew they were going to be slaughtered. This time, they honestly believe they are going to win. The consensus of polls seem to say otherwise. The cons say the polls are wrong. Whoever wins, the losing side will be bitter, angry, and quick to suspect fraud.


If they lose, they win; if they win, they lose: Movement conservatives despise Mitt Romney. They won't generally say that aloud (although there have been notable exceptions). He's soft on social issues, and he's the worst kind of flip flopper. Aside from the prospect of getting three SCOTUS picks, and maybe getting Obamacare undone, my sense is that most of them don't see Romney as a huge improvement over Obama. They want a red meat, guns or butter, Mussolini type who will completely cut the social safety net and kick those welfare bums in their hind quarters while simultaneously ending the cruel taxation of the productive class. Hold a cross, wave a flag, and bomb Iran. They likely won't get their wish. Even if Romney turns out to be the fire breathing conservative they always dreamed of, every indication is that he'll have a hostile Senate for 2+ years. They will likely keep the house, but only by the slimmest of margins. It will be difficult to do the serious business of installing Grover Norquist's agenda....but 2016 is a different story. Unless we repeal the two-term rule, Obama can't run again. meanwhile, the GOP is loaded with candidates for 2016 who are much more to conservative tastes. Chris Christie, Bob McDonnell, Bobby Jindal, Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, maybe Mitch Daniel, and you can never count out the possibility that Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee might reappear. We're not without candidates; Hillary might take another last shot, as might Al Gore. Martin O'Malley's name comes up a lot. The problem will be that their field (compared to this one) will be smarter than this year's field, and will probably be even better funded if Citizens United isn't overturned. Bottom line: a Romney loss might be a victory for them in the long run. Meanwhile, I'll take Obamacare and the SCOTUS picks and see what happens.

A second Obama administration may look like the second Clinton administration: If you haven't seen FAUX news or talked to a wingnut at length recently,, you might be surprised to learn that, over in bizzaro world, the tragic events in Benghazi have been twisted into a cover up worthy of Nixon. In fact, a Facebook meme you might have already seen goes like "If Nixon had to resign over a burglary, what should Obama have to do for covering up the murder of a diplomat?" So if we are blessed with an Obama victory this Tuseday, keep in the back of your mind that the main GOP focus in the House this spring will not be passing the farm bill, or balancing the budget -- it will be show-trial style hearings, and possibly another doomed-to-fail attempt at impeachment. Keep in mind that Bill did some of his best work in his second administration. For example, IIRC, he balanced the budget.

There's more than just the Presidency that will keep me up Tuesday. This election has the potential to really form the foundation of the Party for the next two decades. Of course, there's Elizabeth Warren in Mass. This is the race, I think, in which most DUers have a strong rooting interest. However, the race I'll be most interested in winning (aside from the Presidency) will be to see Tammy Duckworth defeat Joe not-the-Eagles-guitarist Walsh. Long story short: she has grace, courage, honor, and dignity; he's a twit. If we're lucky, Allen West will be defeated. If the stars really line up, we might get to wave goodbye to Michelle Bachmann, but I'm not getting my hopes up.

A year ago, if you'd have said we'd keep the Senate, I'd have said you were nuts. In fact, I did tell some folks here just that, so I'll say now I'm sorry, and I was wrong. Having said that, you couldn't have predicted that not one, but two GOP Senate hopefuls would lose their minds and trip up over the same issue -- abortion in cases of rape. Even if Romney were to win on Tuesday, Akin and Mourdock will most likely have cost him any chance of implementing his agenda for at least two years -- posssibly ever. Richard Lugar, privately, must be laughing his ass off.

If Romney wins the popular vote, but loses in the Electoral College, expect the Republicans to scream like teething two-year olds. They will not accept the situation with grace. They will first attempt to have every state that was remotely close recounted -- mostly to stall for time and to force the Dems to spend money. If that fails, I suspect they wil still make some argument like, "President Obama - step aside, and bow to the will of the people." He wouldn't, and the Constitution would work as intended. However, they will race to get the Constitution amended to get the Electoral College eliminated for next time. I'm just waiting for the Facebook graphics - "You had a majority of the people vote for you, but lost in the Electoral College? That Must Suck! Signed, Al Gore."

I'm so looking forward to 11/7 for the simple reason that I'm looking forward to the first day with no political advertising.

GObama!