a: lent
b: until tuesday night
c: until tea baggers become liberal
d: when romney congratulates Obama on his victory

are assuming that all the votes from their respective parties are going to them, i.e., every Democrat that has voted has voted for Obama and every Republican that has voted as voted for Romney.

In other words, I think they'll know at the same time we do - Tuesday night.

but I don't know what percentage that is, or if it will be remotely enough for Willard.

there are plenty of very deep red places in NC to go along with the purple and blue spots. It depends on who shows up, GOTV! There are pleny of places in NC where Romney will do better than 65% and some big cities where he might not get 35%. It seems to be that sort of place.

Like FL, there are places where Romney will easily rack up 70+/- (they are mostly small and rural) and there are some big cities where Romney will be challenged to post 40+/-. It all depends on who gets to the polls

The Democratic base came out huge here for early voting. especially black, Hispanic, and young voters. Also like I've been saying Gary Johnson will have an impact here as well.

and I think you should too -- though I'd be OK with you making phone calls instead!

You win with 50%, no?

I also saw a number like 59% in FL. Hope they are right!

on those votes already cast, democrats are way ahead in the early votes, leaving a smaller pool of votes left.

don't know about 65 percent but President Obama does have a sizable lead going into Tuesday and the Democrats do have a sizable lead in registered voters that did not vote yet. The people that voted on the Democratic side had a lot of new voters which included sporadic voters. It includes unlikely voters and voters that have not voted in any election.

One example would be Durham County where most likely Democratic voters will be voting on Election Day. Early voting one stop was at certain places but will be closed now. On Tuesday, the regular voting areas will now take over. My regular voting place was closed during the early voting period. A lot of people in my area have not voted yet but intend to vote on Tuesday. The Democrats have enough likely voters to match Romney on election Day. He needs a lot of Independent voters and Democrats to cross over for Romney to make up the difference. Nearly half of the African American voters have voted but there is another half left. The early votes for African Americans were about 760,000 in all. Another marker for the first time that happened yesterday also, the Democratic overall registration has actually surpassed their overall numbers in 2008. This means they have made up for the numbers they lost over all.

Do you think they have been included in any of the recent data used in polling?

Many people were able to go to the EV sites and register and vote all in one process.

A lot of the EVs were those "unlikely to vote" and unregisterec until they went in.

It sounds like NC could very well be a blue state this cycle.

We're fighting like hell.

ABSOLUTELY the fairest way to go!

The GOTV in NC by our party was incredible...the last statistics I read
more new registrations than we had in 2008...they had a great
"machine" at all of our major colleges in the state..same day
registration and voting.

is that the smaller red counties usually only offer one or two early voting locations and one has to be in the geographical center of the county where the county courthouse is located(by state law.) Also, the courthouses aren't open on weekends. Many people in those mostly Pub counties just wait to election day so they don't have to travel as far to cast their ballots and there is minimal weekend voting available.

On the other hand, in the urban areas, there are many places to choose from to early vote. Guilford County alone had 20 or so early voting sites in addition to the centrally located courthouse and the early sites were open daily for 18 days. This allowed for 5 days of Saturday-Sunday voting. You'll get many Dems voting early in these scenarios and explains why Pubs dominate voting on Election Day.

Thanks.

google obama nc polls

sickening

underperformed in 2008 in some states. I think that despite the turnout in 2008 that AA's and Hispanic's are MORE motivated to vote in 2012, thanks to the pugs unrelenting pugness. I do think that the youth vote will underperform vs 2008 but that OFA has targeted the sporadic and new voters to make up for this. However, I think that, to use a term, more white boys will come out of the woodwork (or from under rocks) to send our President back to "Kenya"...

It is a long shot but I think we could do it. Winning NC would be ANOTHER cherry on top, not really needed but it would be a tremendous statement...

makes me sad, but, knowing what I do of wake county, there are TONS of clueless halfwits there

He is going to states where he has better odds.
Doesn't mean that NC is out of reach.

I am from NYC, went with a girl for a time with parents in Raleigh and a summer home on the coast. Wow, they got them some real smart people there and some that just are not...

Couldn't believe it the last time and this time... but have read some interesting diaries at kos on this subject, check them out. Guess we will know soon.

appears the voters there have swallowed the RW meme, and blame the slow recovery on O, not the maniac congress, or the traitorcrooks who sit on the trillions they refuse to invest

to Charlotte. I can not swear to that fact though.

because it is based on the number of registered Dems and Rs that have already votes, but does not account for the high number of Rs voting for Obama!

We know nothing about.

privacy in using that information, but you better bet that Obama's campaign is not lying of bluffing like Romney's does.

is that we have a good idea of how people voted, but we don't know until the votes are counted. The assumption that more Republicans voted for Obama than Democrats voted for Romney is just that, an assumption. It may well be correct, but at this point, it's based on no empirical data - it's just an assumption.

inference because not every voter was polled. However, statistics is an exact science with expressions of the certainty of inferences called probability and/or margins of error correlated to sample size.

It referenced registered voters that have voted, and made an assumption for which polling wasn't even considered, or at least, not mentioned.

**edited post title

and he won't get nearly that much (65%) on election day. NC Dem numbers have been great, especially in early voting "register then vote Dems". I think that President Obama will get NC again and it won't be by 5 votes per precinct this time.