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Gabi Hayes

(28,795 posts) Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:30 AM Nov 2012

1

what did the final polls say in '08 and how accurate we're they? also.....

have conditions changed in ways to make current polls interpreted differently?

haven't seen much talk on this.....

10 replies

= new reply since forum marked as read

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what did the final polls say in '08 and how accurate we're they? also..... (Original Post) Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 OP

Great questions! I hope somebody comes along who can tell both of us! gateley Nov 2012 #1

fox, Ipsos, CNN were off by .3%>>>>15 major polls here: Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 #2

on iPad, can't link chart directly this time....sorry Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 #3

they were pretty close>>>> Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 #4

Many of the links I've been using have links to 2008....nt Wounded Bear Nov 2012 #5

dont like the site, but here are 11 of this year's polls Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 #6

here's just about the entire lot of polls. what about state polling, which, of course, is all that Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 #7

RCP Electoral Results exboyfil Nov 2012 #8

RCP was actually quite close nationally RomneyLies Nov 2012 #9

hope yer right.....I think I'm approaching light speed, as time is slowing to a crawl, as we get to Gabi Hayes Nov 2012 #10

gateley

(62,683 posts)

1. Great questions! I hope somebody comes along who can tell both of us!

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:41 AM

Nov 2012

Gabi Hayes

(28,795 posts)

2. fox, Ipsos, CNN were off by .3%>>>>15 major polls here:

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:42 AM

Nov 2012

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/national.html

Gabi Hayes

(28,795 posts)

3. on iPad, can't link chart directly this time....sorry

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Reply #2)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 11:45 AM

Nov 2012

Gabi Hayes

(28,795 posts)

4. they were pretty close>>>>

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:02 PM

Nov 2012

http://www.fordham.edu/images/academics/graduate_schools/gsas/elections_and_campaign_/poll%20accuracy%20in%20the%202008%20presidential%20election.pdf

Wounded Bear

(58,670 posts)

5. Many of the links I've been using have links to 2008....nt

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:03 PM

Nov 2012

Gabi Hayes

(28,795 posts)

6. dont like the site, but here are 11 of this year's polls

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:06 PM

Nov 2012

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Gabi Hayes

(28,795 posts)

7. here's just about the entire lot of polls. what about state polling, which, of course, is all that

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Reply #6)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:09 PM

Nov 2012

matters?

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/us/general_election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html#polls

edit: these go all the way back to last year, fwiw

exboyfil

(17,863 posts)

8. RCP Electoral Results

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:11 PM

Nov 2012

No toss up states:

Obama 338
McCain 200

Actual

Obama 365
McCain 173

Diff
Indiana 11
NC 15
NE-2 1

Current RCP
Obama 290
Romney 248

Romney shown with NC, VA, and FL
Obama shown with OH, WI, IA, CO, NH, NV

Obama can win even without Ohio so long as he holds the other states (272)

With toss ups it is 201/191 according to RCP

RCP still shows above nine and MI and PA as toss ups.

RomneyLies

(3,333 posts)

9. RCP was actually quite close nationally

Reply to Gabi Hayes (Original post)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:12 PM

Nov 2012

State polling was a bit off, mostly underestimating Obama's strength. I figure they mostly underestimated the ground game, which I suspect they are doing again.

Gabi Hayes

(28,795 posts)

10. hope yer right.....I think I'm approaching light speed, as time is slowing to a crawl, as we get to

Reply to RomneyLies (Reply #9)

Sun Nov 4, 2012, 12:15 PM

Nov 2012

11/6

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