Behold the Surging Republican Party... from 25% to 24%

This is a very cool interactive chart from Pew of Party ID from 1939-2012.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/06/01/trend-in-party-identification-1939-2012/

There are two stories one can tell about Party ID since the 2008 election.

Version 1: Democratic Party ID has declined sharply so the Republican Party is ascendant.

Version 2: Democratic ID has declined 4 points since 2008. Republican Party ID has declined 1 point. Self-identification as Independent has gone up 6 point.

The second version is correct. The first version is the basis for the Republican conspiracy theories about how Romney is ahead.

The reality-based version explains why independents are breaking for Obama. There is a segment of independents who voted for Obama in 2008 and identified themselves as Democrats in 2008 who are "coming home" to Obama.