Summing up Nate Silver's Closing Argument
If the polls are as reliable as polls usually are then Obama cannot plausibly lose. There is no ambiguity in what the polls say.
The only way Romney can win is if what the polls are unambiguously saying is false... if the polls are systemically biased against Romney.
This is a fine distinction, but an important one.
Again, the level of error in individual polls is not enough for Romney to have any chance of winning.
His only chance is if the "un-skew" crowd (who should be called "poll truthers"
is right and polls in general, everywhere, are defective, showing less support for Romney than he actually has.
Anyone, anywhere who thinks Romney has a chance is making an affirmative prediction that the polls are categorically wrong. That is possible, but unlikely.
So you have to make some case for why the polls shouldn’t be taken at face value.
http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/
