Obama: 314 expected electoral votes; 99.5% win probability (497 of 500 trials).

http://richardcharnin.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/update-daily-presidential-true-voteelection-fraud-forecast-model/

He leads the state poll weighted average by 49.0-46.0%.
He leads in 15 of 18 Battleground states by 51.4-48.3% with 169 of 205 EV.

Obama leads Romney in the RCP National average: 47.5-47.3%.
Rasmussen and Gallup are Likely Voter (LV) polls which lean to the GOP.
Rasmussen: Obama has tied Romney 49-49%.
Gallup: Romney leads by 51-46% (no update for almost a week ????).

Obama leads in the Rand poll 49.3-46.1% (closely matching the state polls). Unlike the national LV polls, the Rand poll doesn’t eliminate respondents but rather weights them on a scale of 1-10 (based on voter preference and intention to vote).

The 3% Obama margin increase in the Rand poll over the national LV polls illustrates why the LVs understate Obama’s margin by using the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM). LV polls are a subset of the registered voter (RV) sample. They always understate the Democratic share. The majority of voters eliminated by the Likely Voter Cutoff Model (LVCM) are Democrats.

The True Vote Model indicates that Obama would have 55.2% of the two-party vote with 371 expected EV in a fraud-free election. Will he be able to overcome the systemic fraud factor?