Path to Victory: Wisconsin, Ohio, Nevada, Iowa – Early Voting and Polls Suggest Clear Obama Victory

As the last weekend before Election Days draws to a close, President Obama is tightening his grip on an electoral college victory. Of the nine states that are considered competitive at this time (Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Ohio, Virginia, Wisconsin), Obama seems to be pulling away in four of them (Iowa, Ohio, Nevada, Wisconsin) with more than enough electoral votes to win. Of the other 5 competitive states, Obama has a slight lead in one (NH), two are virtually tied (CO, VA), and Romney has a slight lead in one (FL) and a somewhat comfortable lead in one (NC). But Obama doesn’t need any of those 5 states to win. Iowa, Ohio, Nevada and Wisconsin alone will give him 277 electoral votes, to 261 for Romney. In fact, Obama could even lose Iowa or Nevada, in addition to the other 5, and he would still win.


Recent polling in Nevada, Ohio, Iowa, and Wisconsin

First let’s consider the polling. Obama leads in a series of recent polls in the 4 states, as compiled by Real Clear Politics, ranging from 2.8% to 4.2%, as follows:
Nevada: 5 polls, [font color="blue"]+ 2.8%[/font]
Ohio: 12 polls, [font color="blue"]+ 2.8%[/font]
Iowa: 6 polls, [font color="blue"]+ 3.0%[/font]
Wisconsin, 5 polls, + [font color="blue"]4.2%[/font]

Those leads may not seem like a great deal. But keep in mind that the statistical margin of error in combined polls is far lower than that from a single poll. All of those Obama leads are above the statistical margin of error, with only two days to go.

Nate Silver recently looked at the historical accuracy of state polls right before Election Day, since 1988. Of 77 series of late state polls since 1988, 74 of them correctly predicted the winner. One of the ones that didn’t was the series of Ohio state polls right before the 2004 election – and as we now know, there is a great amount of evidence that that election was riddled with fraud. The latest pre-election polls in Ohio in 2004 predicted John Kerry the winner, while George W. Bush won the official vote count. Not incidentally, the Ohio exit polls also predicted John Kerry the winner – by a large margin.


Early voting

An analysis of early voting provides additional strong reason to believe that Obama will win these 4 states:

Nevada
72% of Nevadans have already voted (if one assumes that total turnout will approximately equal that of 2008), and analysis of voting by party affiliation shows that more than 48 thousand registered Democrats than Republicans have voted so far. Of course Party affiliation does not prove who one is going to vote for. But extrapolation from similar early voting data in Nevada in 2008 indicates that Obama has a comfortable lead in Nevada at this point.

Iowa
With 39% of Iowans having voted by now, the lead in registered Democrats over Republicans is about 63 thousand. Again, extrapolation from early voting data in 2008 indicates a comfortable lead for Obama.

Ohio
In Ohio, only about 29% of voters have early voted so far. Early voting in Ohio is not tabulated by Party affiliation. But the two most highly Democratic counties in the state (Cuyahoga and Franklin) have early voted so far by much higher rates (36% and 37% of the total 2008 voter turnout) than the rest of the state, which is mostly Republican (21%). This is similar to early voting rate patterns by county observed in 2008 in Ohio, when Obama won by a comfortable margin.

Wisconsin
Not much early voting has occurred in Wisconsin. But since Wisconsin is one of the very few states in the country that has same day voter registration, typical polls of “likely voters” are likely to underestimate the Obama lead in Wisconsin. Added to the comfortable and growing Obama lead of 4.2% in Wisconsin, that should translate into an Obama victory in Wisconsin.


In summary

Late polling data in Wisconsin, Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada, in addition to analysis of early voting in Iowa, Ohio, and Nevada, shows a strong likelihood of a comfortable Obama win in each of those states, which together provide more than enough electoral votes to win the presidency, when added to those the 20 non-competitive, safe Obama states.

Therefore, if the official vote count should show a Romney victory on Election Day, intensive investigations, including a review of exit polls, carefully observed recounts and forensic examinations of electronic voting machines, should be demanded prior to an Obama concession.