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xchrom

(108,903 posts) Mon Nov 5, 2012, 10:53 AM Nov 2012

SABATO: Obama Is Going To Wipe Out Mitt Romney

http://www.businessinsider.com/larry-saboto-obama-romney-senate-electoral-map-2012-11

Veteran political forecaster Larry Sabato released his final projections for the 2012 election Monday, predicting a solid win for President Barack Obama in the electoral college.

The forecast shows a significant last-minute bump for Obama in the final days of the campaign — just last Thursday, Sabato had deemed the race too close to call. The bump, which Sabato attributes to Hurricane Sandy and Friday's not-disastrous jobs numbers, has given Obama an edge in several key battleground states, putting him on track to win 290 electoral college votes — well beyond the 270 he needs to win re-election, but still nowhere close to a landslide.

According to Sabato, four states — Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Colorado — have moved from "toss-up" to "leans Obama" over the past five days. Combined with Ohio, which Sabato has had in Obama's column since September, those states give the president a soft cushion in the electoral map. Even Romney manages to win Florida and Virginia (which Sabato has moved to "leans Republican&quot

, he still comes up short with just 248 electoral votes.

Here's Sabato's new map:

6 replies

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SABATO: Obama Is Going To Wipe Out Mitt Romney (Original Post) xchrom Nov 2012 OP

I want to believe blue in redland Nov 2012 #1

That map might actually be generous to Romney. LisaL Nov 2012 #2

Obama will take VA. FSogol Nov 2012 #6

yes he is! He is going to clean every clock Romney has Whisp Nov 2012 #3

This was my prediction too, but now I must revise it. dawg Nov 2012 #4

Agree on 303 DarthDem Nov 2012 #5

blue in redland

(10 posts)

1. I want to believe

Reply to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:12 AM

Nov 2012

My head tells me that this should be true but my paranoid Democratic soul is cautious because of all the underhanded and in your face voter suppression and intimidation.If Repukes steal this election it would be Ohio and Florida.So if we go to the electoral map and give those to Romney and Obama gets Nevada,Colorado Iowa and Wisconsin that leaves NH,VA and NC,in this scenario I see New Hampshire,New Hampshire,NewHampshire.What do others think?

LisaL

(44,974 posts)

2. That map might actually be generous to Romney.

Reply to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:14 AM

Nov 2012

Why does he have Va as leaning Romney? I've seen a whole bunch of polls suggesting its leaning Obama.

FSogol

(45,527 posts)

6. Obama will take VA.

Reply to LisaL (Reply #2)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:22 PM

Nov 2012

Count on it!

Whisp

(24,096 posts)

3. yes he is! He is going to clean every clock Romney has

Reply to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:18 AM

Nov 2012

and every clock his children may have in the future.

It will be a Flawless Victory, and the sign of a dieing Republican party, as we know it now.

This will be fantastic, this will be worth all the hand wringing and worry and stomach clenching disgust since 2000. This will be karmic, this will be beautiful.

This will be happening tomorrow.

dawg

(10,624 posts)

4. This was my prediction too, but now I must revise it.

Reply to xchrom (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:25 AM

Nov 2012

I'm seeing Obama momentum in the Virginia polls and I now think it is more likely than not that we will win that state as well. Most likely Obama EV total is 303. Second most likely is 281, with Romney taking Virginia and Colorado. Third most likely is 290, as shown above.

Based on the data, I don't see any clear path to a Romney victory that doesn't involve either systematic failure of the polls or systematic voter fraud.

DarthDem

(5,256 posts)

5. Agree on 303

Reply to dawg (Reply #4)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 12:20 PM

Nov 2012

Although I'm not ready to give up on Florida or North Carolina yet. I think Virginia and Colorado are going to the president's column.

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