General Discussion

cthulu2016

(10,960 posts) Mon Nov 5, 2012, 02:17 PM Nov 2012

Romney Down Sharply on Gallup

Recall that Gallup had Romney up by 5 among likely voters when they suspended polling on October 29, ostensibly because of Sandy.

(it is reported that) In their final poll today Romney is up by one. That's a pretty substansial downtrend in a week.

Romney 49 (-2) percent to Obama 48 (+2)

So Romney collapsed 4 points on Gallup since October 28. It will be amusing to see if it is reported that way.

GALLUP DAILY
Nov. 2-4, 2012

Registered Voters

Obama49%+1
Romney46%-2

Likely Voters

Romney49%-2
Obama48%+2

http://www.gallup.com/home.aspx

Gallup and Rasmussen both fake up their final poll to correct the systemic methodological bias of their previous 100 polls, so they can claim to have been accurate.

Both Gallup and Rasmussen have showed Romney ahead just about all year, so they can't switch to Obama at the last moment. Instead they both ended up with Romney by one.

Gallup editor-in-chief Frank Newport tells Bloomberg Businessweek that the release of Monday’s tracking poll, set for 1 p.m., will show Mitt Romney leading President Obama 49 percent to 48 percent among likely voters nationally. This is the first tracking poll released since Hurricane Sandy and is notable for the strong movement to Obama. The last Gallup poll on Oct. 29 showed Romney up by 5 points—51 percent to 46 percent.

http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2012-11-05/breaking-gallup-to-show-romney-obama-in-dead-heat