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NNguyenMD

(1,259 posts)
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:26 PM Nov 2012

Anyone think AZ and TX will be the new purple of 2016-2020?

I think once folks soften up the healthcare reform after realizing the benefits of ACA, and on other issues like student loan relief. And once the get closer to passing the dream act, those states will become much more competitive for Dems, as these are issues that can mobilize the Latino community and young people to come out for Dems in full strength.

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Anyone think AZ and TX will be the new purple of 2016-2020? (Original Post) NNguyenMD Nov 2012 OP
Nope. Texas will never be anything close to purple. n/t cdb120 Nov 2012 #1
Hispanics will outnumber whites in Texas by 2025 and Texas will be a Blue State Quixote1818 Nov 2012 #2
This^^ txdemsftw Nov 2012 #4
I was driving around my red town and all I could think of Horse with no Name Nov 2012 #6
It's all in the demographics TBF Nov 2012 #17
I tend to agree.. ananda Nov 2012 #3
See my post Quixote1818 Nov 2012 #5
some help from the DNC and other party orgs would be great nt justabob Nov 2012 #8
the cities already are justabob Nov 2012 #7
The rural areas keep us in the dark ages Horse with no Name Nov 2012 #11
true about rural areas justabob Nov 2012 #14
I'm just waiting for the old farts to die off. n/t Horse with no Name Nov 2012 #15
Yup, that's grim but it's the truth. nt TBF Nov 2012 #18
Why, it was blue in the past? n/t FSogol Nov 2012 #10
History is your friend - TBF Nov 2012 #19
We need more Ann Richards txdemsftw Nov 2012 #9
TX for sure. ceile Nov 2012 #12
Perry needs to pack up his cowboy boots txdemsftw Nov 2012 #13
Only about 13 years before Hispanics outnumber whites in Texas Quixote1818 Nov 2012 #16

Quixote1818

(28,971 posts)
2. Hispanics will outnumber whites in Texas by 2025 and Texas will be a Blue State
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:38 PM
Nov 2012

Bank on it!



CVAP-wise, here are the percentages they give for whites/hispanics/blacks/others by year:

2010: 57/26/13/4
2015: 51/31/14/4
2020: 45/36/14/5
2025: 35/44/14/7

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/07/30/1114634/-Projecting-Texas-The-Coming-Democratic-Plurality

Horse with no Name

(33,956 posts)
6. I was driving around my red town and all I could think of
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:42 PM
Nov 2012

was the wailing and gnashing of teeth that will commence tomorrow.

And the strides that will have been made across the country to remove some of the teathuggers.

And then...there is Texas. We will be sending a brand new batshit crazy teathug to take Kay Bailey's seat in the Senate. Not that he will vote any differently than she did, but still.

We have a decent Democrat running against him. Endorsed by even the RW newspapers...but hey, no doubt we will send the crazy one instead.

That is Texas right now. It won't be purple anytime soon.

ananda

(28,876 posts)
3. I tend to agree..
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:39 PM
Nov 2012

.. unless the Dems get organized, raise some serious money,
and establish a ground game stat!

justabob

(3,069 posts)
7. the cities already are
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:42 PM
Nov 2012

with the exception of Ft Worth which is still cherry red. With the old guard dying off and the rapid demographic changes occuring as we speak, it is not unreasonable to think that Texas will swing back to purple and even blue. This attitude that nothing will ever change and Texas being a lost cause is so frustrating and not at all helpful. It isn't going to happen magically. It will take some effort and a bit of party attention and money, but it can and will happen.

Horse with no Name

(33,956 posts)
11. The rural areas keep us in the dark ages
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:47 PM
Nov 2012

the cities are blue and purple....except Ft. Worth, as you pointed out.

justabob

(3,069 posts)
14. true about rural areas
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:56 PM
Nov 2012

I may be overly optimistic, but with some effort that can be countered. As recently as 2000 there were NO dems on my ballot down-ticket... even in the heart of a big purple city. When Dean ran the DNC that changed, and not one race was uncontested. We need more of that out in the sticks. If the rural folks have a choice it increases our odds and with more activity and GOTV in the hispanic communities it can happen sooner rather than later.

TBF

(32,095 posts)
19. History is your friend -
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 12:08 AM
Nov 2012

The Democratic presidential candidates to carry Texas were: Franklin Pierce, James Buchanan, Thomas Hendricks, Samuel Tilden, Winfield Hancock, Grover Cleveland, William Jennings Bryan, Alton Parker, Woodrow Wilson, James Cox, John Davis, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Harry Truman, JFK, LBJ, Hubert Humphrey, and Jimmy Carter.

ceile

(8,692 posts)
12. TX for sure.
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:49 PM
Nov 2012

Hispanics already make up the majority of school aged children. And I expect the Hispanic pop will be the majority in less than 20 years. The leg can redraw districts all they want, it won't change what's coming.

Oh and Perry has said he'll run for another term- no way in hell he gets re-elected.

txdemsftw

(461 posts)
13. Perry needs to pack up his cowboy boots
Mon Nov 5, 2012, 03:50 PM
Nov 2012

and bible-thumping politics and get the hell out!

HATE THAT MAN!!!!!!!! And if he is re-elected again, my gawd...I just don't know.

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