General Discussion

usregimechange

(18,373 posts) Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:15 PM Nov 2012

Any idea why 538's State-by-State Probabilities map switched Florida light blue?

In fact his map turned significantly more blue tonight than the polling averages would seem to indicate. I love it but what's it based on?

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/

12 replies

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Any idea why 538's State-by-State Probabilities map switched Florida light blue? (Original Post) usregimechange Nov 2012 OP

Was wondering the same thing with a friend KaryninMiami Nov 2012 #1

GOP voters refusing to stand in line maybe? dubyaD40web Nov 2012 #8

it's innate statistical processing.. its entirely "in nate" oldhippydude Nov 2012 #2

OMG!!! When did that happen? femmocrat Nov 2012 #3

Agreed, but still not sure why. Maybe trending national polls? usregimechange Nov 2012 #5

Probably projecting the trend.... Wounded Bear Nov 2012 #4

According to Nate vdogg Nov 2012 #6

Per Nate, national polls with big samples FreeState Nov 2012 #7

Does it have to do with the cast vote lead for O? Thekaspervote Nov 2012 #9

Just gradual movement to Obama in the polls. Still very close to 50/50 though. pointsoflight Nov 2012 #10

As I just posted on another thread, it's still yellow marybourg Nov 2012 #11

It's blue vdogg Nov 2012 #12

KaryninMiami

(3,073 posts)

1. Was wondering the same thing with a friend

Reply to usregimechange (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:17 PM

Nov 2012

Maybe late tabulations of exit polls taken after early voting on Saturday? Tabulations of absentee ballots by party?

dubyaD40web

(1,854 posts)

8. GOP voters refusing to stand in line maybe?

Reply to KaryninMiami (Reply #1)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:21 PM

Nov 2012

Scott did this to himself and it backfired

oldhippydude

(2,514 posts)

2. it's innate statistical processing.. its entirely "in nate"

Reply to usregimechange (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:18 PM

Nov 2012

femmocrat

(28,394 posts)

3. OMG!!! When did that happen?

Reply to usregimechange (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:19 PM

Nov 2012

It was still 55 chance for romney when I checked earlier today. I was disappointed that it had not tightened up.

FABULOUS news!!!

usregimechange

(18,373 posts)

5. Agreed, but still not sure why. Maybe trending national polls?

Reply to femmocrat (Reply #3)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:20 PM

Nov 2012

Wounded Bear

(58,670 posts)

4. Probably projecting the trend....

Reply to usregimechange (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:20 PM

Nov 2012

which has been toward Pres Obama in many state, including FL.

on edit: And it might include some early voting stats, too.

vdogg

(1,384 posts)

6. According to Nate

Reply to usregimechange (Original post)

Mon Nov 5, 2012, 11:20 PM

Nov 2012

The model adjust for pollster house effect. A couple of polls came out today with either romney or Obama +1 in FL. If the ones that were +1 for Romney had a R house effect, depending on the size of the effect, the model would have shifted that blue.