It's basically St. Louis proper, Kansas City, Columbia and a few other Democratic pockets versus the rest of the state, including the southwest quarter of the state which always seems to be blood red.

basing my feeling on this race. I just think Akin has shot the party in the foot this year in MO.

I do know that the southern part of the state, especially the Ozarks, and including nearly all of the SW quarter of the state, is VERY red. Springfield, for example, has had a Republican Congressman for about 50 years straight! McCain/Palin got around 60% of the votes in nearly every county in that area. So I wouldn't hold out too much hope for Missouri. But who knows?

served many terms. As I recall, Skelton was a very conservative Dem cut from the Scoop Jackson mold. (I actually met him in person during the Bicentennial celebrations in 1976.)

But I agree that the snake-handling, fire-breathing, cross-burning evangelical element is very strong in the southwest corner of the state.

I so hope she wins. The teabagger who beat Skelton is horrible.

that little town in NH--30% of the republicans voted for Obama and 100% of the independents!! That is a major shift from the last election.

but I can say confidently that Pres. Obama is not going to win MO.. Claire will squeak across the finish line just because of Aiken's rape comment, but Obama taking MO.? Not a chance.

right there on old US 71. And of course, Harry Truman's modest boyhood home, which my school's history club visited back in 1976

Most of the people I know see her as the lesser of two evils. I don't see her having much in the way of coat tails.

http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/govt-and-politics/political-fix/todd-akin-draws-closer-to-claire-mccaskill-in-missouri-senate/article_0eaa7ba3-cac9-54c8-81d7-e29c9bf8ef3b.html

I did a lot of canvassing for Claire and can't even count the number of voters supporting her but voting for Romney. Of course that's just in one area of the state but Obama has been thoroughly slandered in MO. I would be shocked if he won the state.

AZ won't be hell if it's blue...............

But the ones who stayed, I'm hoping, will head en masse to vote.

Arizona blue..... and Joe Arpaio gone... what a day it would be here... Oh... and Carmona winning .....

The reason I say this is because Latino voters are often significantly underrepresented in polling, especially out West. The guys at Rocky Mountain might just be on to something, I think. As for MO & GA? Guess we'll just have to find out tomorrow night, won't we?

I'm letting myself think big on that one!!!

Now that would be amazing.

and I think it might move things in a blue direction.

It is very possible he could win MO this time considering Todd Akin's collapse in the state and the fact that Santorum won the Republican primary here. Robme came in second with 25 percent of the vote. Some of these republican voters don't like Robme and may stay home or decide to vote for the Libertarian guy. Those factors could give us the edge we need that we didn't have last time. 5,000 votes.

with Todd Akin's help

and a GOTV effort that is kicking butt here in Az.

Of course that depends on how you define "close"; last time it was 52% McCain to 46% Obama. The demographics have been shifting for some time now, with an increasingly large Hispanic and Asian population, especially in metro Atlanta, and quite a few transplants from other states, but I don't predict it being enough to make it close in any meaningful sense. Depends on turnout, but most of the state outside of metro Atlanta and a few other isolated areas is solidly Republican (to the point where in two Congressional districts the Republican is running unopposed, and in much of the state there are no Democrats running for local office).

I just wonder if the election is playing out with similar numbers.

since early votes aren't counted separately; all the votes are tabulated at the same time and the results aren't released until there's an offical total, and there's no way of telling which votes among those cast are early votes. Although there are slightly fewer early voters in Georgia this election cycle, apparently; totals are down by about 100k, and down across all demographic groups except black voters.

EDIT: A Pew Research survey on GA 2008 early voting has the following: "Avoiding long wait times seemed to be more of a Democratic than a Republican characteristic. Just over 40% of the Democrats compared with 34.7% of Republicans reported voting early primarily to avoid long waits on election-day."

http://www.politicususa.com/georgia-poll-presidential-race-tied-early-voters.html

Is the once bright red state of Georgia trending blue? According to recent polling and voter registration statistics, the answer is yes.

According to a just-released 20/20 Insight survey for Better Georgia, among people who say they have already voted, the race for President is a statistical tie. The survey, conducted October 30-31, asked voters their opinions in the election for President, 12th District Congressman (Rep. John Barrow (D) vs. Lee Anderson (R)), and other key state-level races and ballot issues.

According to Georgia Secretary of State Brian Kemp (R), this year, for the first time in history, white voters will comprise less that 60% of active, registered voters in Georgia. A more diverse electorate tends to be more progressive, as illustrated in the results of the survey released today.

Despite a minimal investment in Georgia from either campaign, President Obama appears to be positioned to exceed expectations in the Peach State on election day. For President, 52 percent of respondents supported Mitt Romney (R), 46 percent supported Barack Obama (D) and 2 percent were either undecided or planned to vote for another candidate. Among people who say they have already voted, the race for President is a statistical tie – Barack Obama gets 49 percent and Mitt Romney gets 50 percent. (1,316 Likely Voters, Margin of Error 2.7%)

Georgia does not require voters to register by party. So it's hard to say who leads right now.

http://onlineathens.com/local-news/2012-11-05/georgia-early-voting-lags-behind-2008-pace

http://blogs.ajc.com/political-insider-jim-galloway/2012/11/05/black-voters-cast-more-than-one-third-of-1-9-million-early-georgia-ballots/

I hope we turn this state blue or make it very very purple. Been hard being blue dot in a sea of red!

But either way The President will win decisively!!

Merry Election Eve Don Redwood! I do so enjoy your posts

Welcome to DU!!

I hate to say it, but aside from metro Atlanta, Athens, and parts of Savannah, this state is as red as Alabama or Mississippi.

Those states are in the red column, definitely.

On October 10th I posted this prediction:
ELECTION SPOILER: Obama wins in a LANDSLIDE

I made this prediction based on national demographic trends & the nature of Obama's Republican competition.
All over that thread I respond to doubtful posters with my view that Arizona is the big surprise state to flip for Obama.
I also said that the state I live in, Georgia, may go for Obama too even though it's more of a longshot than Arizona.
At the very least I felt that one other Southern state will turn for Obama & Georgia was my strongest pick.

Another poster on that thread said that South Carolina may be that Southern state that turns.
If that was so then Georgia may just follow suit.
It would be so perfect for the effects of North Carolina to bleed into South Carolina & Georgia.

I never had any doubt that Obama would retain North Carolina.
He's the one to turn North Carolina for the Democrats after that state not going for a Democrat since Jimmy Carter.
Even Bill Clinton couldn't swing that state on neither one of his runs.

I never doubted Florida. Obama owns that easy.

Lately I also have been having a faint feeling about Missouri being that Southern state to turn.
I won't put anything down on it but I hope for that one to flip too.
I had a fantasy about Texas turning but that's just fantasy. Would be so cool though if it happened.
And so SHOCKING!

Obama got Indiana last time & while this one is slippery, I think Obama will keep a grip on it.

Anyhow, all of that points to my prediction that Obama will win within 15% to 20% of the Popular Vote ensuring an Electoral Avalanche.
He got 365 Electoral Votes compared to John McCain's 173 last time in 2008.
He won the Popular Vote with 52.9% to John McCain's 45.7%.
That's a full 7% gap with an extra 0.2% on top.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008

Since I believe that the demographics Obama enjoyed in 2008 will be broader for him in 2012 & the demographics McCain enjoyed in 2008 will be static or even weaker for Romney in 2012, I see that 7% being doubled & more to at LEAST 15%.
Obama will keep all the states he got last time & add a few more so his Electoral Count can only go higher.
I see it getting closer to the 400 mark with a number like say 385 this time around.

Lots of people doubted me (even though there were others who believed me).
Tomorrow we'll see who's right & who's wrong.
John Lucas

Like Claire, mourdock is going to get the women out to vote...but for the opposite reason.

See, that's the thing...I just can't see those Texans making a mark for Romney. I think it is in play simply because Romney is not their kind of person.

Boy I hope you're right on that one.
If the Republicans lose Texas, that is a GAME CHANGER.

Boy if that's the surprise state. WHEW.
That would destroy people's minds.
The Republican Party would be dead right then & there on the National Stage.
John Lucas

I live in Savannah, right on the state line, and I can tell you with no doubt that Georgia and South Carolina are, overall, very red. Romney will win these two states by a minimum of 58-42.

I just voted & I did my part to turn Georgia blue for Obama.
(Quintuple-checked to make sure that the electronic voting machine had my selections right. Can't have an accidental Romney!)

I think Georgia's near the teeter-totter.
Obama got 46.99% of the Georgia vote to McCain's 52.2% in 2008.
That's just a little over 5%.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_2008#Result

South Carolina's indeed a little tougher.
Obama got 44.9% of the South Carolina vote to McCain's 53.87% in 2008.
That's just under 9% so that will be harder to make up.

But as you see both are under the 10% margin.
You got a margin of 16% with your 58-42 tally.
Obama may not get South Carolina but Georgia is gettable (is 'gettable' a word? it is now! haha).

I know Midway's going for him if nothing else.
Good God! Obama signs EVERYWHERE!
Liberty County too for that matter.

I think if we get our turnout where we need it we can force Georgia over.
I hope to see it tonight.
John Lucas

I'm in Athens and early voting in Clarke County has been phenomenal.
I completely agree NC is going for the President again!
(now if we can just get rid of our resident asshat Paul Broun in 2 yrs)

...barely.

NC seems kinda like Indiana, a real flip-flopper.

North Carolina won't flip-flop. Trust me on that.
And I do think he will hold Indiana.

He's breaking up that old Solid South & creating a NEW Solid South that will be for Democrats in elections to come.
It won't show up right away but it's coming within the next 20 years.
John Lucas

would make my day

Thanks for the positives. I try to trust

North Carolina surprised the hell out of me.
I did not think Obama could lose that state.
Georgia didn't come through for me. Arizona didn't come through for me.
Missouri didn't even budge.

And neither did my popular vote prediction.
Looks like I missed a decimal point placement. Haha.
Instead of 15% to 20% it was more like 1.5% to 2.0%.

BUT He DID get a LANDSLIDE.
An ELECTORAL Landslide but a landslide nonetheless.

So much for that bleed into South Carolina idea too.
And Texas fantasies will remain Texas fantasies.
Indiana slipped out of Obama's hands this time.
Florida will go his way though once it ever finishes counting the votes.

Man I'm a little bummed about this but hey we got our 2 terms for Obama & that's good enough for me.
John Lucas

Never count on AZ to do the right thing. NEVER!

You will see a lot of states turn blue before AZ, they will stick with the Confederacy until the bitter end. (or until TX turns blue)

I can recall not that many years ago that Texas was a blue state? It was even after LBJ. At one time, the Speaker of the House was Jim Wright of Texas...and a damn good one he was.

And all the South, except for VA, was blue also...

And I think it looks real pretty in blue.

And post it here just for DU.

If Claire gets all the women out to vote and just a handful of white dudes stay home...

:0)

I will do it too.

Once the election is called and Missouri is for obama ill make that video.

that Obama is NOT going to win MO. I've lived here all my life except for 6 years in the Army, outside of the cities, MO is as red as they come, McCaskill is very unpopular here, the ONLY reason she's probably going to win is that Akin is a little bit more unpopular because of the rape remark.

Jay Nixon looks like he's going to cruise to a comfortable win, but Obama winning MO? As much as I would love to see it happen, not going to happen.

you don't realize just how unpopular she is here in MO. The only reason she's ahead of Akin by a couple of points is because of Akin's rape comment, before he made that comment, McCaskill was getting hammered by Akin.
No, Claire will win, but she won't bring out the women vote and regrettably, Obama won't win MO.

I've lived in Gangnam, it's a very rich area in Seoul. The area I lived in had very high end shops and often was used for filming Korean dramas. Lots of imported cars like BMW's, Mercedes Benz, etc. If you are a working stiff like me, you can't afford to shop in that area of town.

I don't think Obama will win Missouri, so I think you won't have to endure having to make the video.

but I deal in reality and the reality is that Obama isn't going to win MO. I did a lot of canvassing and phone banking when not at work and I can tell you that Pres. Obama is not real popular here in MO..
I wish it weren't so, but that's just the way it is.

The loser has to not only donate $10, but also had to post a video of themselves singing a song chosen by the winner.

to the Hurrcane Sandy relief fund to the American Red Cross.

If Obama wins one or the other Ill donate $10

It's got to be beyond the money. So are you in with the song?

Seems like quite a challenge. Lets hope I do that tonight.

And that's a sure sign that it was in play or at least getting too close for comfort for someone.

I live in a county just next to St. Louis county that went Obama in '08 (just barely). Seeing more Rmoney signs than Obama, but maybe more dems for the other races.
I am working up all the positive energy I can. All three of my kids will be voting this year, hope we can tilt it.
I am a horrible dancer, but I will be dancing if Mo. goes blue tonight.

I'm in DeKalb County which is very blue, so I can't say we're representative of the whole state. Someday, maybe, if we keep working at it.

and watch Arizona and Indiana go blue. Obama 369 ... Romney 169