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WilliamPitt

(58,179 posts)
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 07:54 AM Nov 2012

Nate Silver's Final Word (Hint: get ready to smile)

Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer Odds
By NATE SILVER

Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.

But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.

Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.

Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race.

The rest: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/?hp

Final odds: Obama 91.6% to Romney 8.4%

Eight Point Four Percent.

Go vote.



44 replies = new reply since forum marked as read
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Nate Silver's Final Word (Hint: get ready to smile) (Original Post) WilliamPitt Nov 2012 OP
... Lucinda Nov 2012 #1
Ha! No wonder Joe Scar is crying about people like Nate having too much clout... polichick Nov 2012 #2
All of them on that show appear to be really JEALOUS of Nate Silver, esp. Halperin. CTyankee Nov 2012 #4
So true - I'm turning the old farts off now. polichick Nov 2012 #5
Disdain masks jealousy panAmerican Nov 2012 #9
It's so obvious, isn't it? Bitter and jealous, yep, that's them... CTyankee Nov 2012 #11
And it never occurs to a single Republican... BouzoukiKing Nov 2012 #33
It is about numbers. ywcachieve Nov 2012 #6
Nate humiliated Joe, saying he's sorry that Joe is so "math-challenged." Joe is still seething... CTyankee Nov 2012 #7
Nate Silver has no clout. He's simply reporting the numbers. Bucky Nov 2012 #12
"Nate has too much clout"= Jackpine Radical Nov 2012 #18
Yeah...Joe is trying to argue that 2+2 is 5, Volaris Nov 2012 #23
Once more I quote Upton Sinclair: Jackpine Radical Nov 2012 #26
That damn accuracy of math Dont call me Shirley Nov 2012 #39
Facts have too much clout BlueStreak Nov 2012 #28
True, only winning political victories is about numbers. eom tledford Nov 2012 #40
YEP YEP YEP!!! Buddaman Nov 2012 #3
YIP YIP YIP! ThatsMyBarack Nov 2012 #35
MS NBC John2 Nov 2012 #8
It will get real interesting if the patched Ohio machines turn out Romney wins. Kablooie Nov 2012 #10
+1 n/t ejbr Nov 2012 #15
Dems win--"No harm, no foul." Jackpine Radical Nov 2012 #20
It is up to us to keep dems from sweeping this under the rug BlueStreak Nov 2012 #31
I've been preaching this since 2003, when Jackpine Radical Nov 2012 #32
and heaven05 Nov 2012 #21
That is part of why today's lawsuit was filed. "Are you feeling lucky, Husted?" BlueStreak Nov 2012 #29
Another possible consequence of today's court hearing BlueStreak Nov 2012 #30
I couldn't sleep at all last night! Welcome news from Nate Silver. ailsagirl Nov 2012 #13
It ain't over until Nate Silver sings. tavalon Nov 2012 #14
as someone we know said, irisblue Nov 2012 #16
I plan to sleep well tonight with visions of Nate Silver dancing in my head. mountain grammy Nov 2012 #17
All Sounds Great, but..... chuckstevens Nov 2012 #19
Exactly GreenPartyVoter Nov 2012 #42
1 Hr ago fleabiscuit Nov 2012 #22
Good point. Also, I do hope Nate votes also. I had heard he might not. FailureToCommunicate Nov 2012 #24
Hey - last night it was up to 92%! cilla4progress Nov 2012 #25
You made my day, WRP!! Duval Nov 2012 #27
Here is another graphic to bring a smile... FailureToCommunicate Nov 2012 #34
Pretty acucrate. I really think that is how it will look. lalalu Nov 2012 #38
Fl is back to pink... MADem Nov 2012 #43
I'm sticking with Nate and ignoring the main... santamargarita Nov 2012 #36
Critically, Nate has O up in VA OldHippieChick Nov 2012 #37
'Nate Silver Accounts For 20% The New York Times' Web Traffic On Monday' tomm2thumbs Nov 2012 #41
With a +/- of 14% Up2Late Nov 2012 #44

polichick

(37,152 posts)
2. Ha! No wonder Joe Scar is crying about people like Nate having too much clout...
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 07:58 AM
Nov 2012

...and politics not really being about numbers.

CTyankee

(63,912 posts)
4. All of them on that show appear to be really JEALOUS of Nate Silver, esp. Halperin.
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 08:07 AM
Nov 2012

They know he's hot and they're not....

BouzoukiKing

(163 posts)
33. And it never occurs to a single Republican...
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 11:11 AM
Nov 2012

...that being hot, being listened to, being respected - is only about one thing: integrity.

CTyankee

(63,912 posts)
7. Nate humiliated Joe, saying he's sorry that Joe is so "math-challenged." Joe is still seething...
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 08:18 AM
Nov 2012

Kinda reminded me of Zbieg calling Joe "stunningly superficial."

Bucky

(54,026 posts)
12. Nate Silver has no clout. He's simply reporting the numbers.
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 08:44 AM
Nov 2012

I don't think Silver is doing any kind of persuading, but Joe Scarborough is. That's his job just like tracking numbers is Silver's job. I just wish Scarborough didn't feel like people who report on reality were philosophically at odds with him (or with whichever reality he's living in).

Volaris

(10,272 posts)
23. Yeah...Joe is trying to argue that 2+2 is 5,
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 10:17 AM
Nov 2012

and Nate and the rest of the math-doers and their dirty 'Liberal Fingers" keep proving him wrong. No wonder all those guys over there get paid so much. If I had to do a job that sucked that hard, I would demand a lot of compensation, too

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
26. Once more I quote Upton Sinclair:
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 10:32 AM
Nov 2012

"It is very difficult to get a man to understand something when his income depends on his not understanding it.

 

John2

(2,730 posts)
8. MS NBC
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 08:21 AM
Nov 2012

Always seem to bring out the conservative pundits in the morning while their left leaning pundits tone down their rhetoric in Scarborough's presence. If it was me I would tell them the absolute truth. Forget about Pennsylvania, Romney might not even win in North Carolina. And there is a good chance that will happen more than you think.

Kablooie

(18,634 posts)
10. It will get real interesting if the patched Ohio machines turn out Romney wins.
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 08:23 AM
Nov 2012

Especially since Ohio has become safe for Obama.

Even if Romney loses there, as he almost certainly will, a serious investigation should continue.
If there was an illegal attempt to increase Romney votes, even a failed attempt, someone should be imprisoned.

There need to be real consequences for tampering with the votes, successful or not, if we ever expect to control it.

Jackpine Radical

(45,274 posts)
20. Dems win--"No harm, no foul."
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:28 AM
Nov 2012

Repubs win--"We don't need no stinkin' investigations, and we're in charge now, so there won't be any."

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
31. It is up to us to keep dems from sweeping this under the rug
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 10:56 AM
Nov 2012

Win or lose, this corruption is a serious problem that needs to be attacked vigorously.

BradBlog is one of the best sources on this.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9651

 

heaven05

(18,124 posts)
21. and
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:32 AM
Nov 2012

please don't forget who has a financial $$$$ interest in those machines. another mittshit family member.

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
29. That is part of why today's lawsuit was filed. "Are you feeling lucky, Husted?"
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 10:51 AM
Nov 2012

The lawsuit is a shot across the bow that corrupted results won't be allowed to just slip through. And by taking it to court in advance, even if the court doesn't do a restraining order, this has forced Husted to go on record with very definite representations about these systems. It will be impossible for Husted to argue that "Gee I'm not a technical guy. They just said the software was needed and would make the election go smoother."

Now if it is found that Husted's "experimental software" has corrupted the election machines, there is a very good chance that Husted would go to federal prison (assuming Obama wins today.)

So Husted has to make a decision. Does he go forward with a vote flipping scheme that might well be discovered in a recount scenario or does he back off and lick his wounds, realizing that means Obama wins Ohio?

Are you feeling lucky, Jon?

 

BlueStreak

(8,377 posts)
30. Another possible consequence of today's court hearing
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 10:53 AM
Nov 2012

if the judge does not order the software removed immediately, the judge could order testing after the fact. I don't know what Ohio's recall laws say, but I expect a court could have the authority to order additional testing, which would be equivalent to a recount.

ailsagirl

(22,897 posts)
13. I couldn't sleep at all last night! Welcome news from Nate Silver.
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 08:54 AM
Nov 2012

Am watching Scarborough--with thumb on Mute button.

 

chuckstevens

(1,201 posts)
19. All Sounds Great, but.....
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:27 AM
Nov 2012

This is great news, but Nate Silver can't make sure people turnout to the polls. Let's not get overconfident. Fight like your liberty as an American is at stake! Pester, bother, beg, nag, do whatever it takes to make sure like minded progressives get out to vote.

Also, if you've already voted in Florida and Ohio, go down to the long lines with food, music, or games to entertain people so they don't ive up and leave! WE CAN DO IT!

fleabiscuit

(4,542 posts)
22. 1 Hr ago
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:46 AM
Nov 2012

Tweet
Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight
IMPORTANT: That we have Obama as a ~90% favorite does NOT mean we're predicting a landslide. We expect a close election.

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In other words GET OUT THE VOTE!

MADem

(135,425 posts)
43. Fl is back to pink...
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 07:44 PM
Nov 2012


FL needs to get their shit together. Why can't they see that wingnuts don't help them in the slightest?

OldHippieChick

(2,434 posts)
37. Critically, Nate has O up in VA
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 01:01 PM
Nov 2012

In my humble opinion if that "likely" goes the way Nate is predicting, it is all over. Ohio won't matter as much.

Up2Late

(17,797 posts)
44. With a +/- of 14%
Tue Nov 6, 2012, 09:14 PM
Nov 2012

Well, a plus of 14%, only a minus of 9%, can't go any lower than zero.

Looks like he could squeak past 50% for the Popular vote too!

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