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Related: Editorials & Other Articles, Issue Forums, Alliance Forums, Region ForumsNate Silver's Final Word (Hint: get ready to smile)
Nov. 5: Late Poll Gains for Obama Leave Romney With Longer OddsBy NATE SILVER
Mitt Romney has always had difficulty drawing a winning Electoral College hand. Even during his best period of polling, in the week or two after the first presidential debate in Denver, he never quite pulled ahead in the polling averages in Ohio and other states that would allow him to secure 270 electoral votes.
But the most recent set of polls suggest another problem for Mr. Romney, whose momentum in the polls stalled out in mid-October. Instead, it is President Obama who is making gains.
Among 12 national polls published on Monday, Mr. Obama led by an average of 1.6 percentage points. Perhaps more important is the trend in the surveys. On average, Mr. Obama gained 1.5 percentage points from the prior edition of the same polls, improving his standing in nine of the surveys while losing ground in just one.
Because these surveys had large sample sizes, the trend is both statistically and practically meaningful. Whether because of Hurricane Sandy, the relatively good economic news of late, or other factors, Mr. Obama appears to have gained ground in the closing days of the race.
The rest: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/2012/11/06/nov-5-late-poll-gains-for-obama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/?hp
Final odds: Obama 91.6% to Romney 8.4%
Eight Point Four Percent.
Go vote.
Lucinda
(31,170 posts)polichick
(37,152 posts)...and politics not really being about numbers.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)They know he's hot and they're not....
polichick
(37,152 posts)panAmerican
(1,206 posts)CTyankee
(63,912 posts)BouzoukiKing
(163 posts)...that being hot, being listened to, being respected - is only about one thing: integrity.
ywcachieve
(365 posts)Scarborough is a jealous jerk.
CTyankee
(63,912 posts)Kinda reminded me of Zbieg calling Joe "stunningly superficial."
Bucky
(54,026 posts)I don't think Silver is doing any kind of persuading, but Joe Scarborough is. That's his job just like tracking numbers is Silver's job. I just wish Scarborough didn't feel like people who report on reality were philosophically at odds with him (or with whichever reality he's living in).
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)Waaaah! Make these awful numbers go away!
Volaris
(10,272 posts)and Nate and the rest of the math-doers and their dirty 'Liberal Fingers" keep proving him wrong. No wonder all those guys over there get paid so much. If I had to do a job that sucked that hard, I would demand a lot of compensation, too
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)"It is very difficult to get a man to understand something when his income depends on his not understanding it.
Dont call me Shirley
(10,998 posts)BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)tledford
(917 posts)Buddaman
(503 posts)ThatsMyBarack
(7,641 posts)John2
(2,730 posts)Always seem to bring out the conservative pundits in the morning while their left leaning pundits tone down their rhetoric in Scarborough's presence. If it was me I would tell them the absolute truth. Forget about Pennsylvania, Romney might not even win in North Carolina. And there is a good chance that will happen more than you think.
Kablooie
(18,634 posts)Especially since Ohio has become safe for Obama.
Even if Romney loses there, as he almost certainly will, a serious investigation should continue.
If there was an illegal attempt to increase Romney votes, even a failed attempt, someone should be imprisoned.
There need to be real consequences for tampering with the votes, successful or not, if we ever expect to control it.
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)Repubs win--"We don't need no stinkin' investigations, and we're in charge now, so there won't be any."
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)Win or lose, this corruption is a serious problem that needs to be attacked vigorously.
BradBlog is one of the best sources on this.
http://www.bradblog.com/?p=9651
Jackpine Radical
(45,274 posts)the first Diebold/ES&S stories started hitting the net.
please don't forget who has a financial $$$$ interest in those machines. another mittshit family member.
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)The lawsuit is a shot across the bow that corrupted results won't be allowed to just slip through. And by taking it to court in advance, even if the court doesn't do a restraining order, this has forced Husted to go on record with very definite representations about these systems. It will be impossible for Husted to argue that "Gee I'm not a technical guy. They just said the software was needed and would make the election go smoother."
Now if it is found that Husted's "experimental software" has corrupted the election machines, there is a very good chance that Husted would go to federal prison (assuming Obama wins today.)
So Husted has to make a decision. Does he go forward with a vote flipping scheme that might well be discovered in a recount scenario or does he back off and lick his wounds, realizing that means Obama wins Ohio?
Are you feeling lucky, Jon?
BlueStreak
(8,377 posts)if the judge does not order the software removed immediately, the judge could order testing after the fact. I don't know what Ohio's recall laws say, but I expect a court could have the authority to order additional testing, which would be equivalent to a recount.
ailsagirl
(22,897 posts)Am watching Scarborough--with thumb on Mute button.
tavalon
(27,985 posts)Someone please record it, okay?
irisblue
(32,980 posts)Arithmetic! you cannot change facts and numbers
mountain grammy
(26,623 posts)chuckstevens
(1,201 posts)This is great news, but Nate Silver can't make sure people turnout to the polls. Let's not get overconfident. Fight like your liberty as an American is at stake! Pester, bother, beg, nag, do whatever it takes to make sure like minded progressives get out to vote.
Also, if you've already voted in Florida and Ohio, go down to the long lines with food, music, or games to entertain people so they don't ive up and leave! WE CAN DO IT!
GreenPartyVoter
(72,378 posts)fleabiscuit
(4,542 posts)Tweet
Nate Silver ?@fivethirtyeight
IMPORTANT: That we have Obama as a ~90% favorite does NOT mean we're predicting a landslide. We expect a close election.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
In other words GET OUT THE VOTE!
FailureToCommunicate
(14,014 posts)cilla4progress
(24,736 posts)What happened?
Duval
(4,280 posts)FailureToCommunicate
(14,014 posts)(from Princeton Election Consortium http://election.princeton.edu/ )
thanks, William!
lalalu
(1,663 posts)MADem
(135,425 posts)FL needs to get their shit together. Why can't they see that wingnuts don't help them in the slightest?
santamargarita
(3,170 posts)stream media bullshit!
OldHippieChick
(2,434 posts)In my humble opinion if that "likely" goes the way Nate is predicting, it is all over. Ohio won't matter as much.
tomm2thumbs
(13,297 posts)that according to mediaite.com
Up2Late
(17,797 posts)Well, a plus of 14%, only a minus of 9%, can't go any lower than zero.
Looks like he could squeak past 50% for the Popular vote too!