I tend to be a pessimist, or at least a realist.

I think we'll hold the Senate, but I had hoped we would be able to expand our # into the 50's, and now I'm predicting we'll end up with 50 or 51.

The House may not be a blowout, but I think the Party leaders are more or less expecting we'll fall short of the majority. My guess is we'll lose 10-15 seats there.

He's been spot on about a lot of elections. I hope he's right again.

what's his crystal ball say?

He’s surprisingly optimistic this cycle.

From Oct. 10: https://www.democraticunderground.com/100217241272

It made me feel good!
Fingers crossed!

Although I never totally give up I tend to be a pessimist when it comes to elections.

To keep the House at this point would mean a major systematic error in turnout and electorate modeling at the national level. I don't see that in the cards given the economic headwinds.

The Senate control at this point is decided by PA. I give us a two in three chance of Fetterman winning. I thought he had it in the bag before that debate debacle. PA is a blue/purple state that is drifting a little more red, but I don't think we're there yet. Oz is a poor candidate and Mastriano is going to drag on him slightly.

I expect we lose one of two between NV and GA. Both are tossups. GA is a red state recently gone purple, and I can see them repeating VA 2021 and regressing to their mean given an unfavorable overall political climate. Also Keep leading soundly will boost Walker a little in the same way Mastriano hurts Oz. NV is just crazy close based on polling and is a hard to nail down swing state.

I don't see any other seats really being likely to flip either direction.

Like, to follow up the debate . . . with that.

(I know it's not being discussed here, but it's being discussed literally everywhere else).

I was about 3% concerned about PA a few weeks ago. Nudged up to about 25% after the debate. I think I'm full 50/50 on that race now. Who knows. There have been some choices made that are so stymieing. It's difficult to wrap my head around Oz winning, and I know that bias is out of personal antipathy. But the debate and the sign thing are all the internet is talking about in that race now.

Six days. We'll just have to see what we see.

AZ (close as well) and NH (if we lose NH, it is likely a bit of a Red wave, with the House likely gone for sure, amd we could end up with only 46 or 47 Senate seats).

I think we fail to flip WI, NC, FL, IA, and OH (if we win 2 of those (OH and WI would be my guess), that might signal a bit of a Blue mini wave and we maybe, maybe hold the House as well).

So, even if we flip PA, to keep it at least 50/50 we MUST win one of either GA or NV if it plays out as I predicted.

If we fail to flip PA we have to hold both NV and GA (plus of course, AZ and NH) if the rest play out as predicted.

GA and NV are the 2 most likely Rethug flips atm, and I have extremely worried about both (the thought of ridiculously stupid, lying, violent, corrupt, mentally unstable Herschel Walker as a US Senator makes my fucking head EXPLODE in sheer rage, especially as a black woman. He is literally the physically animated embodiment of tens of millions of white trash racist christofash vermin screaming the n-word a thousand times). AZ is the 3rd most likely Dem seat in danger, with NH a more distant 4th, with the rest of the Dem-held Senate seats pretty safe to very safe.

I just can't bring myself to be optimistic about the midterms.

Can't make a call on the house with too many crap polls

Because that's what I think will happen.

Added. Albeit quite late. Thanks!

I just re-voted.

Inflation is problematic and sadly voters will blame the party in power rather than the Republicans who do nothing and have no plan even if they win.

Hopefully we find out next week.

and I'm not going to guess.

Just hope for the best… I am bracing myself for the worst too though.

always have been one.

I honestly can’t guess.