... Most of the major polling organisations are over-sampling Democrats deliberately in states where they believe that this corresponds to actual voter numbers. But the assumptions on which the over-representation of Democrats are based may be out of date, or false for more subtle reasons which I will proceed to elaborate.

So no, it isn’t just arcane number-crunching that leads me to the conclusion that hardly dares to speak its name. It is something far more indefinable: something which those of us who have been engaged with politics for half a century or so are inclined to trust. As that brilliantly perceptive commentator Peggy Noonan has said, Obama’s campaign does not look or feel like it is winning – and Mitt Romney’s does. The turnouts and atmosphere at Obama events are rather pitiful by comparison to the tremendous, ecstatic receptions that are greeting Romney and they are notably pitiful by comparison to the thunderous Obama pre-victory march across the country in 2008. He and his surrogates (even the still hugely popular Bill Clinton) have often played to half-empty venues. It seems that only by offering a free pop concert with A-listers like Bruce Springsteen, or a Hollywood celebrity fest, can the President pull really large crowds. And those crowds, if my television screen is to be believed, consist overwhelmingly of kids who scream for Springsteen and the rap artist Jay-Z as enthusiastically as they do for the President...

/... http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/janetdaley/100188062/time-for-me-to-get-off-the-fence-i-believe-mitt-romney-will-win-tonight-and-this-is-why/

I sure hope you guys are right and this lady is wrong... Any comment on that for those of us observing from afar?

Peggy Noonan was Ronald Reagan's speechwriter, and she's spent decades trying to spin everything in favor of Republicans. Ain't no substance there.

I drink your milkshake, too, you collaborationist!